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Cable Fractal Map. Trade Explanation

In today's blog post I want to take the time and talk about my recent trade which was long GBP/USD. This trade was based on a market model or you can call it a fractal pattern (see Figure 1) that cable has been following since the start of the sell off from 2014 highs. Now, even though I got out of this trade relative fast the upside momentum should prevail if we take in consideration the seasonality cycles of GBP/USD which has the tendencies to strengthen during the summer time period and post …
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Cable Strong Seasonality Pattern

Cable is also showing a strong seasonal pattern to bottom during summer time(see Figure 1). We can see that this pattern is quite strong and the general strength caries on all the way through July until August comes in and where we have another strong seasonality pattern. Don't forget never use this information alone but instead use the technical tools to confirm this ideas or not, so we're going to look at technicals as well.
Figure 1. British Pound Seas
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Update 2: This week we retrace the rally from previous week and we found support as expect at previous swing high 1.5810 which should be strong support for the next week as well. We need another push higher towards 1.5900 and eventually towards 1.6000 big figure before to resume down again.

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Update 3. Even though we have a strong pullback the market is unable to have a weekly close below the big round number 1.5500. If this level holds we should expect next week more upside. First level of resistance is at 1.5650 a close above this level should initiate more upside momentum

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Update 4: Since we managed to break again above the big figure 1.5500 we should expect further upside momentum. Also the 1.5600 level is an important pivot point and we manage to break and have a daily close above it, this level should act for now as support

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Update 5: Cable is setting up the stage for another upside run as the seasonality pattern suggest. Also technicaly we have posted a double top at the 1.5670 level where many stops resides and in many cases this are taken out when we have such a clear double top. A close above 1.5670 can boost momentum and see higher prices in next week.

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Update 6: As per my previous update right now we posted a triple top at 1.5670 which makes it even more higher probable that we'll see a break above it. Also this past week we stopped right above the big round number 1.5500 without being able to break below it suggesting the bulls are still in control

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Cable + 93 Pips Profit. Trade Explanation

In today's blog post I want to take the time and talk about my last trade which was long GBP/USD. Since beginning of this month you could have seen me talking in details about all my trades in my blog and I hope this will give you a perspective on the reason and why I've decided to take that particular trade.
This trade is a particular setup that I usually take during London open when the market starts moving strong in one direction and than it quickly reverse, so you have to fade that quick mov…
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Stix When I'm referring to "liquidity inefficiency" I mean that there are few orders executed inside this type of move and it creates gap in liquidity as only few people get their orders filled when everyone jumps in to catch that move. Why do you think you get slippage?:)

Stix avatar
Stix 9 Giu

Thanks, Daytrader21. Yes, I do understand. It seems incredible that for moments in time, all business ceases, since it is an electronic system but given that the major contributors are banks etc, the vigilance during economic data release is understandable. It still surprises me, after all this time. Thanks ! :) :)

cocciolla avatar

congratulation for prize in the strategy contest

Daytrader21 avatar

cocciolla Thanks mate, I saw you in top 10 as well so congrats to you as well.

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Preparing The Week Ahead


The coming week is going to be more important than you may think, not only because there are many risk events on the doc that can spur volatility but also because it can mark the turn in the equity market. Don't call me wrong because I'm not calling a crash just a major correction. Since this can be a major topic on itself I'm not going to talk about it here as there are many details that need to be covered. However I'm just going to give you a major hint and I would recommend to watch ES react…
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fxsurprise8 avatar

great article. Where do you find up to date probabilities for rates?

Daytrader21 avatar

fxsurprise8 You would have to look at bond yields. Look at the 12 month bill  yielding 1.930%, cash rates are at 2.25% -->big money saying 25 bps cut on Tuesday. Here is a free website where you can look at yields (see above), or you can find the data in excel and construct your charts there. I hope it helps. 

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ah thanks a lot

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Quick Review GBP/JPY Trade

In today's blog post I would like to give a quick review of one of my latest trades which was short GBP/JPY(see Figure 1). The whole premise behind this trade was a broken support which was pointing to further downside movement. Not to mention that once cable has broke the key support level of 1.5000 which is a very big round number, would send a strong signal across the board that GBP is very weak. This was a very quick trade as weekend was approaching I was not having enough margin left to hol…
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GBPUSD Fractal Map

Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a 66 months retracement. Not only that the price action looks similar but also time wise this fractal looks similar. This fractal will suggest that eventually we'll have to see another major swing low below 1.3490 before the market to enter in the next p…
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Update 2: As expected from previous update 1.5550 has provided a great resistance level and we had a strong rejection. However we need a break below 1.5300 in order for the long term bearish trend to resume.

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Update 3: This week was a formidable week and it has proved once again that my Fractal map is working as we had an incredible 400 pips sell off from the highs. This move is over exaggerated and oversold at this levels and because we couldn't get a close below 1.5000 big round number it may be the case we will consolidate next week between 1.5200 resistance level and 1.5000 support level

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Update 4: As expected we indeed pushed down, however due to the broad base dollar strength across the board the momentum was strong enough to push below the big round number 1.5000. At this stage I'm afraid that we may not see again 1.500 as we have a strong weekly close below this level and also we're closing below an important support level.

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Update 5: Due to extreme volatility environment we have been trading in a very big range with 1.5000 level providing a good resistance level for the time being. As per my fractal model this should have been expected as we're in the blue circle area (see Figure 2).

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Update 6: Even though we're trading still below 1.5000 big round number our fractal map suggest we should see another move higher. so far the fractal map has been quite precise and in this regard we should follow the map. Next week 1.4800 need to act as support and we should see another false breakout above the big round number 1.5000

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GBP/USD Fractal Map

Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a 66 months retracement. Not only that the price action looks similar but also time wise this fractal looks similar. This fractal will suggest that eventually we'll have
to see another major swing low below 1.3490 before the market to enter in the next p…
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Update 4: Even thought we finally broke below recent support zone at 1.5540 we couldn't break below the big round number 1.5500. Taking in consideration that we're in a big bearish trend it's only a matter of time until we break that level but in order for the momentum to keep pressing lower we need a daily close below that figure.

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Update 5: AS we retested for so many time the big round number 1.5500 has become weaker and weaker and in the end has finally give up and broke through that level. One of a key rule in trading is that if a level is hit for to many times will become weaker and we should expect a break of that level. As I'm writing this comment we have 1h left until the deadline and we're 25 pips away from my target. But we have no reason not to expect the momentum to carry on as usually after a level got hit for so many times when we brake that level the market doesn't look back.

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Update 6: As expected the momentum was still pushing to the downside and we hit our target to the pip but 10 minutes before the deadline we bounced 13 pips from my target, but as I speak we're back  retesting my level 1.5425 see for more reference picture attached.

Metal_Mind avatar

Nice one buddy. 13 pips is an excelent result. Luck 13 !!

foreignexchange avatar

Congratulations, good job and interesting analysis.
Buona giornata

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Cable update

I've been bullish on cable since last year I haven't changed my opinion and will not change it for a while now, until the market will prove me wrong I'm going to stay on the long side. But that doesn't mean there will be no selling opportunities, quite the opposite you will see that as we're going to move upwards there will be plenty of pullbacks where you can make money.
  • Figure 1. GBP/USD Forecast

If you have been trading for a while you will noticed that GBPUSD has a unique behaviour a…
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BOE Inflation Report, Cable Analysis

Last time I've been spoken about Cable we where trading near 1.6260 support level and an important pivotal point and and that moment I was making the point that cable should rally from those levels back up, and it did, but you may be asking yourself what's next with cable? You can check out my blog post here: Clash of the Titans - BOE vs ECB
[list][/list]…
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2014 FX Market Outlook - AUD (part 3)

Although for the current contest month I'm out I'm still going to try to bring back my account at BE after suffering 80% loss in the first trading day, and this mean that I should make 400% to bring back my account to 100k, but I'm a fighter and never give up. So, I'm still going to make blogging as I really enjoy it so I'm going to continue with my 2014 FX Market Outlook blog series. This time we're going to look at Cable, you can see check my previous blog post here: …
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floge 6 Gen

"I don't know how many of you are aware the GBPUSD is on the verge to make/or not make a big advance in price" - i'm aware, the big test is on this area, must breakout 1,70 to run away, have she legs? will see :-D

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Definitely GBP is one to watch in 2014 but patience is required and also flexibility if market doesn't follow our plan

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EURUSD strong up after statements released

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