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Swissie may visit 0.975 before SNB steps in

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Deeper Correction
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 21 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Swissie has not been in focus lately, even though its moves were comparable to that of the euro. EUR/CHF has remained well offered ahead of the French election, suggesting some safe haven flows at work. That will likely intensify if Le Pen makes it to the second round. USD/CHF has been coiling around parity level for months now as (geo)political concerns balance out positive carry. 200 DMA offers the initial support with stronger one between 0.98 and 0.985. 1.00 is the immediate resistance and then 1.005.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against the yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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al_dcdemo 1 May

UPDATE 10: U.S. Congress reached a deal on spending bill yesterday. That saw some mild U.S. dollar strength in the first hours of trading. There's a holiday today in the U.K. and most of the E.U., but the N.A. session kicks off with U.S. treasury secretary Mnuchin's speech and ISM Manufacturing PMI later. Swissie is trading near the middle of a declining wedge pattern, right at 200 DMA. I expect it to stay in equilibrium at least until the new French president is known. After that, direction will depend on risk sentiment. 0.985 - 0.99 is the initial support and 1.00 - 1.005 the resistance.

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Swissie to revisit 2011 - 2016 trendline

al_dcdemo Posted 19 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Deeper Correction
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar extended its gains this week in most major currency pairs as a rate hike by the Fed and a potentially steeper tightening path is getting discounted. One exception was the euro which gained on the back of constructive tones from ECB and less chances of Le Pen victory in French election. Next week's calendar features three central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, SNB), U.S. inflation, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP. If FOMC fails to hike on Wednesday, the dollar would sell-off hard. To avoid disturbance, a hike is almost a certainty. "Sell the fact" reaction possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. Having said that, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The correction in dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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Aussie fell to the lowest level since June

al_dcdemo Updated 18 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #D1 Chart #Deeper Correction #Higher U S Yields
It looks like the Aussie is in the middle of a deeper correction. Latest developments in financial market are generally risk-supportive but some commodities came under pressure as did commodity currencies, also due to higher U.S. yields.
The pair has so far fallen four cents from a top near 0.78, set on the U.S. election day. 200 DMA and 0.75 level were convincingly busted this week and should now act as strong resistance. The pair is currently stalling at 61.8% retracement of the May - November…
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