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USD pares back Friday's losses

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年08月10日  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Dollar Strength #H1 Chart
In the aftermath of an otherwise solid US labour market report last Friday, USD/JPY sold off. It stalled ahead of 124.00 and closed the week near 124.20. The pair managed to recoup two thirds of those losses overnight and in the morning amid general dollar strength. It's now back to pre-NFP levels around 124.75.
Immediate resistance is now seen in 124.80 - 125.10 band: Daily Resistance 1 (124.82), Weekly Resistance 1 (124.92), 00's (125.00), Previous Week High (125.07). Stronger one shall come i…
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USD/JPY uptrend intact

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年07月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 126.2500, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ascending Triangle #Pullback #Big Figure #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After the pullback in June, the pair appears poised to close above there again. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December…
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al_dcdemo 2015年08月10日

UPDATE 4: With the BOJ on the sidelines and giving no indications of any imminent further easing, the main driver will remain US economy and expectations of Fed tightening later in the year. US data is likely to continue to come out solid and that should be enough to keep the pair bid. 124.00 - 124.50 is the initial support before 123.50 and then 123.00. 125 is now the main obstacle on the upside ahead of the cycle-high at 125.85.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月15日

UPDATE 5: Weekly range in the pair was again the smallest among seven majors. This is the fourth week in which the range didn't exceed 160 pips. Previous strong 124.400 resistance now became a pivot, around which most price action unfolded. The most notable day was Wednesday, in which the pair sold off almost a cent and a half, after PBOC weakened yuan fix for the second consecutive day.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月16日

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be important in terms of Japanese macroeconomic data/events. Preliminary GDP for Q2 will come out on Monday and BOJ will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Thursday. Support is seen at 123.80, before 123.50 (50 DMA) and 123.00. Initial resistance shall come in above 124.50 but the stronger one may be found between 125 and 125.30.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月28日

UPDATE 7: Weekly range in the pair was the largest since March 2011. The whole range was defined on Monday after the pair sold off strongly amid a bout of risk-off due to several concerns: China, global growth, Fed tightening and oil prices. Low was put in close to 116 level and the pair regained most of the losses by the end of the week. Big hammer is forming on the weekly chart, but that may not be significant in the current range-bound context.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月29日

UPDATE 8: Apart from maybe Average Cash Earnings on Friday, there's nothing market moving from Japan on the calendar for the week ahead. US will release its monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports, but the main focus will remain on the global stock markets. Initial support is seen around 120.50 and then near 120.00. On the upside, 122.00 - 122.50 band looks like a decent resistance.

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USD/JPY to remain supported

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年06月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 124.2500, 予想日: 3日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ascending Triangle #Pullback #Big Figure #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and closed the month of May above that, but retraced roughly half of the gains in June. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in D…
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WallStreet6 2015年07月28日

Another great long term forecast! Only 70 pips away, although my prognosis for the rest of the week is rather bearish. Good Luck!

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al_dcdemo 2015年07月31日

Thanks! Yep, this one stands really well. :)

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al_dcdemo 2015年07月31日

UPDATE 9: Yen remained in a tightish range against the Dollar in the past week. After a short excursion to the downside on Monday, the pair turned back higher and broke to the highest since June 10th on Thursday. It was, however, unable to hold above the strong resistance at 124.50 and turned back down. Weaker than expected Employment Cost Index then sent it tumbling on Friday, just as it was setting to retest the level again.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月01日

UPDATE 10: Economic highlight of the week ahead will be the NFP report, alongside ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. BOJ will also meet next week and they will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Friday. Initial resistance is the strong 124.50 level but the offers may extend all the way to the 125 big figure level. Support shall be found at 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月03日

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week on a positive note and slowly traded up towards 124.50 level. Right into end of the forecast period, which happens to coincide with the US session open at this time of year, it was stalling ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (124.33). The closing price of the 11:59 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.266 and the open price of the 12:00 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.267. This is my best accuracy so far and I'm also pleased with the prediction itself as July's price action unfolded in line with my expectations.

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USD/JPY to extend breakout

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年05月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 127.2500, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Breakout #Ascending Triangle #Big Figure #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery #Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and is poised to close the month above that. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.90, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair consolidated in 115.5…
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al_dcdemo 2015年05月31日

The breakout really wasn't that strong, but putting another 300 pips by the end of the June is not entirely impossible.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月06日

UPDATE 3: Relative to the previous two weeks, the pair traded in a lacklustre range during most of the week. The range was essentially a triangle pattern, that broke to the upside before Friday's NFP. Kudos to all those that traded the break and managed to hold through the release. The pair surged on better NFP numbers, breaking 125 level in the process. It pulled back after briefly trading above December 2002 high at 125.75.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月07日

UPDATE 4: Even though last week's range was lesser than in the previous two weeks, the candle still looks bullish: long real body with the close on the highs. If we take this rally as a break out of March/April range, then the measured target (125.70) was just achieved. But I suspect most traders are looking at the current breakout as one out of the December 2014 to April 2015 ascending triangle, with the projected target near 128.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月14日

UPDATE 5: As most majors, the pair reversed Friday's losses by the end of the Monday's US session. It consolidated on Tuesday and early Wednesday but then came a surprise remark from BOJ governor Kuroda, who said that it's hard to see Yen's real effective rate falling further. The pair lost nearly 200 pips in the aftermath of the remark. Half of that was regained on the next day, but there was no follow through on Friday and the pair closed in the lower third of its weekly range.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月15日

UPDATE 6: Although the pair opened the week lower, there was no follow through and it appears that the Kuroda comments' impact may have ran its course, at least for now. The most important event this week will be the FOMC meeting in which they will hopefully give the market some clues as to when they intend to start the long awaited rate hiking cycle. Support is now defined near 122.50, while the initial resistance is seen into 124.00.

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