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"NAVIGATOR" - PROFESSIONAL ADVISOR for ATAS!!!

POWERFUL_TRADERS Posted 24 Aug.  in #Support Level #Support Area #Resistance Area #Support And Resistance #Supports #Resistances #Resistance Zone #Supply Zone #Resistance Levels #Resistance Cluster
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GBP/JPY Forecast

carpe Posted 4 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/JPY #Forecast #Support #Resistance Cluster
Good morning fellow traders.
Here is my forecast for GBP/JPY.
In this right moment this pair mark: 175,50.
The cross is now facing a very strong support around 175,00. This support was enough strong for attempts at January and April, 2015.
Look at the chart
Forecast: Upside from now
Good luck!
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USD/JPY to trade lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.25, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Spike #Yen Strength #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Short Lived Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). The pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening. It retraced most of the losses but has been unable to get above 124.00.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke b…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 5: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 6: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. USD/JPY lost some 50 pips and traded down to Daily Support 1 (116.70) before turning back up and recouping the losses.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: The Yen continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Today, it briefly traded below August 2015 low (~116.20) and pierced 116 level which is an upper extreme of a strong 115.5 - 116 support zone. The support zone is a neckline of a big head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. If it gives way, measured move would target 105 - 107 which also includes 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 uptrend (~106.65), 2013 high (~105.5) and October 2014 low (~105.2).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/JPY to stay supported

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.2500, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Recovery #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Unclear Direction
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After a weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster …
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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al_dcdemo 8 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Final revision of Japanese GDP showed that the economy expanded in Q3 rather than contracted. Worries that the country entered a recession were diluted last week after much better than expected capital spending report. This may put some downside pressure on the pair. Technically, the pair has been confined to a 150 pip range (122.25 - 123.75) for nearly a month. 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are just about to converge, are a part of support band between 121.50 and 122.00. 124.00 - 124.25, which includes a trendline drawn off of June and August highs, may prove to be a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 16 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment in stock markets improved today while ten-year U.S. treasury yield gained 7bp. In addition, there was a broader U.S. dollar buying throughout the second part of the day - a lot if it must have been position adjustment ahead of tomorrow's big event. USD/JPY rallied 120 pips from the lows and gained nearly 70 pips on the day after it bounced from the trendline, drawn off of August and October lows. The pair is currently trading just above the confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA (~121-50), which will need to stay above if it wants to improve technical picture.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from Japan, after Retail Sales and Industrial Production data were released earlier today. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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USD/JPY may well continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Neutral Technicals #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster an…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: In this mostly sideways week for the pair, yen lost half a cent against the dollar. Weekly range was about a cent and a half wide. The pair gapped down on Monday, but the gap was closed in a matter of hours and the pair rose to 123.25 by the end of that day. Thursday saw a bit of a correction which didn't manage to break below 122.50.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: In the week ahead Japan will report inflation data plus few other economic indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Both countries will observe Thanksgiving holiday. Technically, the pair still looks bullish but recent failure to continue much past September 9th high warns that a near term correction may be in the making.

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al_dcdemo 25 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The Yen is currently trading in the lower half of one of the smallest weekly ranges of this year. There were some geopolitical tensions yesterday but it wasn't enough to make any significant dent in risk trades, which soon rebounded. 122 is key to hold but below it we have possibly even more important 121.50 level where 50, 100 and 200 DMA may converge in the days ahead. On the upside the first stronger resistance is expected at 123.75 - 124.00 and then around 125.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In another sideways week, the pair has barely managed to produce a 100 pip range. It closed the week essentially unchanged. After a quick surge at the opening, the pair started to fall and touched as low as 122.25 on Wednesday morning. Thursday's range was one of the tightest in months as it measured only 25 pips. A new range appears to be 122 - 124.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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USD/JPY to remain in balance

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.2500, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Strong Support #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly with concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster and…
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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: After it broke the symmetrical triangle pattern, the pair fell towards 118 and nearly touched the big figure. It was essentially a fake break below 118.25 - 118.75 support zone which was followed by a sharp reversal. The pair hit the above-mentioned pattern bottom on Friday, which behaved as expected. Next week will tell whether there's any downside left or the pair will return back to previous range with the mid point near 120.

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al_dcdemo 20 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The bottom of the symmetric triangle pattern, that was broken last week, has been acting as a tough resistance in the last three trading days. The pair is creeping below it but shows no intentions of turning back down. 50 DMA has crossed below 200 DMA on Friday after it has been below 100 DMA for nearly a month. Last week's breakdown roughly coincided with the cross but the pair wasn't able to produce a significant decline.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: The symmetric triangle was resolved in the most "market" way. Several fake breakouts to either side were followed by a "real" break to the downside, which proved to be fake. The pair seems to have convincingly broken above 120 level helped by risk-on sentiment spurred by ECB's dovishness and PBOC rate cuts. Stock are rallying and 125 is back in focus. 122.00 - 122.50 is the first strong barrier on the way there.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Yen rose more than two cents last week. It traded up to 121.50 and closed above 200 DMA. However, it has been falling since the beginning of this week, to as low as 120.15 in today's trading, before stalling. The big figure (120), also the mid point of the 118 - 122 range, shall hold if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias. On a break below, retest of the lower extreme of the range will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great analysis : )

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USD/JPY technicals muddy

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Strong Support #Risk Off #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Market Rout #Cycle High #Global Stock Markets
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

now at 17 pips away, nice!

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks! It looks good at the moment. :)

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foreignexchange 1 Oct.

Great : )

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks :)

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Attempt to break to the upside of the aforementioned pattern failed but the pair didn't decline past the pattern's bottom either. Volatility continues to fall as this week's range is even smaller and basically less than 100 pips. I'm very happy with the outcome because uncertainty after August 24th market rout made the whole thing difficult to predict.

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USD/JPY uptrend intact

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 126.2500, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ascending Triangle #Pullback #Big Figure #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After the pullback in June, the pair appears poised to close above there again. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December…
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: With the BOJ on the sidelines and giving no indications of any imminent further easing, the main driver will remain US economy and expectations of Fed tightening later in the year. US data is likely to continue to come out solid and that should be enough to keep the pair bid. 124.00 - 124.50 is the initial support before 123.50 and then 123.00. 125 is now the main obstacle on the upside ahead of the cycle-high at 125.85.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Weekly range in the pair was again the smallest among seven majors. This is the fourth week in which the range didn't exceed 160 pips. Previous strong 124.400 resistance now became a pivot, around which most price action unfolded. The most notable day was Wednesday, in which the pair sold off almost a cent and a half, after PBOC weakened yuan fix for the second consecutive day.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be important in terms of Japanese macroeconomic data/events. Preliminary GDP for Q2 will come out on Monday and BOJ will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Thursday. Support is seen at 123.80, before 123.50 (50 DMA) and 123.00. Initial resistance shall come in above 124.50 but the stronger one may be found between 125 and 125.30.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Weekly range in the pair was the largest since March 2011. The whole range was defined on Monday after the pair sold off strongly amid a bout of risk-off due to several concerns: China, global growth, Fed tightening and oil prices. Low was put in close to 116 level and the pair regained most of the losses by the end of the week. Big hammer is forming on the weekly chart, but that may not be significant in the current range-bound context.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Apart from maybe Average Cash Earnings on Friday, there's nothing market moving from Japan on the calendar for the week ahead. US will release its monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports, but the main focus will remain on the global stock markets. Initial support is seen around 120.50 and then near 120.00. On the upside, 122.00 - 122.50 band looks like a decent resistance.

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USD/JPY to remain supported

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 124.2500, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ascending Triangle #Pullback #Big Figure #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and closed the month of May above that, but retraced roughly half of the gains in June. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in D…
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WallStreet6 28 July

Another great long term forecast! Only 70 pips away, although my prognosis for the rest of the week is rather bearish. Good Luck!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, this one stands really well. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Yen remained in a tightish range against the Dollar in the past week. After a short excursion to the downside on Monday, the pair turned back higher and broke to the highest since June 10th on Thursday. It was, however, unable to hold above the strong resistance at 124.50 and turned back down. Weaker than expected Employment Cost Index then sent it tumbling on Friday, just as it was setting to retest the level again.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Economic highlight of the week ahead will be the NFP report, alongside ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. BOJ will also meet next week and they will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Friday. Initial resistance is the strong 124.50 level but the offers may extend all the way to the 125 big figure level. Support shall be found at 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 3 Aug.

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week on a positive note and slowly traded up towards 124.50 level. Right into end of the forecast period, which happens to coincide with the US session open at this time of year, it was stalling ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (124.33). The closing price of the 11:59 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.266 and the open price of the 12:00 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.267. This is my best accuracy so far and I'm also pleased with the prediction itself as July's price action unfolded in line with my expectations.

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USD/JPY to extend breakout

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 127.2500, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Breakout #Ascending Triangle #Big Figure #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery #Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and is poised to close the month above that. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.90, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair consolidated in 115.5…
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al_dcdemo 31 May

The breakout really wasn't that strong, but putting another 300 pips by the end of the June is not entirely impossible.

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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 3: Relative to the previous two weeks, the pair traded in a lacklustre range during most of the week. The range was essentially a triangle pattern, that broke to the upside before Friday's NFP. Kudos to all those that traded the break and managed to hold through the release. The pair surged on better NFP numbers, breaking 125 level in the process. It pulled back after briefly trading above December 2002 high at 125.75.

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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: Even though last week's range was lesser than in the previous two weeks, the candle still looks bullish: long real body with the close on the highs. If we take this rally as a break out of March/April range, then the measured target (125.70) was just achieved. But I suspect most traders are looking at the current breakout as one out of the December 2014 to April 2015 ascending triangle, with the projected target near 128.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: As most majors, the pair reversed Friday's losses by the end of the Monday's US session. It consolidated on Tuesday and early Wednesday but then came a surprise remark from BOJ governor Kuroda, who said that it's hard to see Yen's real effective rate falling further. The pair lost nearly 200 pips in the aftermath of the remark. Half of that was regained on the next day, but there was no follow through on Friday and the pair closed in the lower third of its weekly range.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Although the pair opened the week lower, there was no follow through and it appears that the Kuroda comments' impact may have ran its course, at least for now. The most important event this week will be the FOMC meeting in which they will hopefully give the market some clues as to when they intend to start the long awaited rate hiking cycle. Support is now defined near 122.50, while the initial resistance is seen into 124.00.

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