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USD/JPY may well continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Neutral Technicals #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster an…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: In this mostly sideways week for the pair, yen lost half a cent against the dollar. Weekly range was about a cent and a half wide. The pair gapped down on Monday, but the gap was closed in a matter of hours and the pair rose to 123.25 by the end of that day. Thursday saw a bit of a correction which didn't manage to break below 122.50.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: In the week ahead Japan will report inflation data plus few other economic indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Both countries will observe Thanksgiving holiday. Technically, the pair still looks bullish but recent failure to continue much past September 9th high warns that a near term correction may be in the making.

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al_dcdemo 25 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The Yen is currently trading in the lower half of one of the smallest weekly ranges of this year. There were some geopolitical tensions yesterday but it wasn't enough to make any significant dent in risk trades, which soon rebounded. 122 is key to hold but below it we have possibly even more important 121.50 level where 50, 100 and 200 DMA may converge in the days ahead. On the upside the first stronger resistance is expected at 123.75 - 124.00 and then around 125.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In another sideways week, the pair has barely managed to produce a 100 pip range. It closed the week essentially unchanged. After a quick surge at the opening, the pair started to fall and touched as low as 122.25 on Wednesday morning. Thursday's range was one of the tightest in months as it measured only 25 pips. A new range appears to be 122 - 124.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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USD/JPY to remain in balance

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.2500, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Strong Support #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly with concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster and…
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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: After it broke the symmetrical triangle pattern, the pair fell towards 118 and nearly touched the big figure. It was essentially a fake break below 118.25 - 118.75 support zone which was followed by a sharp reversal. The pair hit the above-mentioned pattern bottom on Friday, which behaved as expected. Next week will tell whether there's any downside left or the pair will return back to previous range with the mid point near 120.

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al_dcdemo 20 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The bottom of the symmetric triangle pattern, that was broken last week, has been acting as a tough resistance in the last three trading days. The pair is creeping below it but shows no intentions of turning back down. 50 DMA has crossed below 200 DMA on Friday after it has been below 100 DMA for nearly a month. Last week's breakdown roughly coincided with the cross but the pair wasn't able to produce a significant decline.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: The symmetric triangle was resolved in the most "market" way. Several fake breakouts to either side were followed by a "real" break to the downside, which proved to be fake. The pair seems to have convincingly broken above 120 level helped by risk-on sentiment spurred by ECB's dovishness and PBOC rate cuts. Stock are rallying and 125 is back in focus. 122.00 - 122.50 is the first strong barrier on the way there.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Yen rose more than two cents last week. It traded up to 121.50 and closed above 200 DMA. However, it has been falling since the beginning of this week, to as low as 120.15 in today's trading, before stalling. The big figure (120), also the mid point of the 118 - 122 range, shall hold if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias. On a break below, retest of the lower extreme of the range will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great analysis : )

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