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GBPCAD FREE FALL TO TARGET 1.6360

cashshark Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.6361, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Momentum Indicators #Momentum #Downtrend #Gbpcad #Monthly Analysis #Monthly Chart #Weekly Chart #Sell Off #Adx Indicator
CHARTS TIMEFRAMES USED: MONTHLY AND WEEKLY CHARTS
TECHNICAL INDICATORS USED: ADX, MOMENTUM INDICATOR, sTOCHASTIC INDICATOR, CANDLESTICKS.
AS SHOWN IN THE NEXT MONTHLY CHART, WE CAN SEE ALL THE INDICATORS ESPECIALLY THE MOMENTUM INDICATOR GENERATES A STRONG SELL OFF SIGNAL, AND THE DOWNTREND IS STILL AT IT'S STRONGEST STATE.
THAT CONFIRMED BY THE STOCHASTIC INDICATOR AND MOMENTUM INDICATOR AS IS SHOWN BELOW.
ON THE THE NEXT WEEKLY CHART WE SEE THE ADX INDICATOR AND MACD HISTOGRAM GIVE A STRONG SI…
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ABOZAHRA74 avatar
ABOZAHRA74 15 Aug.

nice

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vap61 28 Aug.

только время нас рассудит!)), лайк за смелый прогноз))

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EURo to extend lower in August

al_dcdemo Posted 25 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0875, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Sell Off #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Divergence Theme
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows and rein…
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, we have a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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Brexit to weigh on EUR/USD

al_dcdemo Posted 24 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Sell Off #Risk Sentiment #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Brexit
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows and rei…
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al_dcdemo 18 July

UPDATE 6: Lack of significant selling after Thursday's massacre in Nice suggests that, sadly, this kind of event was largely priced in. Friday's military coup attempt in Turkey led to a more prominent market response but the pair closed the gap early today after the conditions in the country stabilized over the weekend. Since the Brexit day sell-off, the pair has been carving out a symmetrical triangle with the midpoint approximately at 200 DMA. Support is at 1.10 - 1.1025 and resistance at 1.1150 - 1.1175. A successful break either way will define the direction of the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 28 July

UPDATE 7: Euro printed an outside day reversal candle yesterday after the FOMC left interest rates on hold. A hawkish dissent, positive risk assessment and overall improvement of the tone of the statement was not enough to keep the U.S. dollar sellers at bay. The pair surged about a cent from the lows and is currently stalling near 200 DMA. 1.11 and 50 DMA are the next levels where stronger supply may be expected. 1.10 shall now hold, if this is truly a bullish market.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP report. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Euro started the week in a subdued fashion, trading in a 20-pip range. Final manufacturing data came in near expectations while UK's slightly disappointed, giving the euro a bit of a boost. The pair convincingly broke above 200 DMA on Friday and is currently holding above 50 DMA. The latter currently runs near 1.1150 and is the initial support. Some resistance is expected at 1.12 and then at 100 DMA (1.1235).

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Swiss franc gains with SNB on the sidelines

al_dcdemo Updated 11 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Snb #Safe Haven Flows #Sell Off #D1 Chart
Yen has not been the only currency to benefit from safe haven flows recently. Swiss Franc has appreciated five cents so far this month with USD/CHF closing in the red in seven out of eight trading days. SNB seem to be sidelined for the moment but probably not for long.
In a sharp sell-off, the pair broke below December low (~0.98) before it stalled at the confluence of the declining 2003 - 2015 trendline and 200 DMA. Ascending 2011 - 2015 trendline is the next major target while the broken 0.98 …
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USD/JPY to trade lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.25, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Spike #Yen Strength #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Short Lived Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). The pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening. It retraced most of the losses but has been unable to get above 124.00.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke b…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 5: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 6: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. USD/JPY lost some 50 pips and traded down to Daily Support 1 (116.70) before turning back up and recouping the losses.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: The Yen continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Today, it briefly traded below August 2015 low (~116.20) and pierced 116 level which is an upper extreme of a strong 115.5 - 116 support zone. The support zone is a neckline of a big head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. If it gives way, measured move would target 105 - 107 which also includes 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 uptrend (~106.65), 2013 high (~105.5) and October 2014 low (~105.2).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/JPY to stay supported

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.2500, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Recovery #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Unclear Direction
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After a weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster …
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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al_dcdemo 8 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Final revision of Japanese GDP showed that the economy expanded in Q3 rather than contracted. Worries that the country entered a recession were diluted last week after much better than expected capital spending report. This may put some downside pressure on the pair. Technically, the pair has been confined to a 150 pip range (122.25 - 123.75) for nearly a month. 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are just about to converge, are a part of support band between 121.50 and 122.00. 124.00 - 124.25, which includes a trendline drawn off of June and August highs, may prove to be a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 16 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment in stock markets improved today while ten-year U.S. treasury yield gained 7bp. In addition, there was a broader U.S. dollar buying throughout the second part of the day - a lot if it must have been position adjustment ahead of tomorrow's big event. USD/JPY rallied 120 pips from the lows and gained nearly 70 pips on the day after it bounced from the trendline, drawn off of August and October lows. The pair is currently trading just above the confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA (~121-50), which will need to stay above if it wants to improve technical picture.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from Japan, after Retail Sales and Industrial Production data were released earlier today. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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Cable remains bought in the dips

al_dcdemo Updated 12 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Bounce #H1 Chart #Sell Off
Cable lost 370 pips in two and 470 in five days during the first week of November. Big 1.50 level held and we've since seen three consecutive days of gains so far, could be four at the end of the day. Decent labour market report underpinned the pair yesterday and excessive gains were corrected earlier today but the pair found demand into 1.5175.
Area near 1.5325 (61.8% retracement of last week's downswing, 50 DMA, 200 DMA) may prove to be a decent resistance, should the pair continue to rise. Fu…
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USD/JPY may well continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Neutral Technicals #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster an…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: In this mostly sideways week for the pair, yen lost half a cent against the dollar. Weekly range was about a cent and a half wide. The pair gapped down on Monday, but the gap was closed in a matter of hours and the pair rose to 123.25 by the end of that day. Thursday saw a bit of a correction which didn't manage to break below 122.50.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: In the week ahead Japan will report inflation data plus few other economic indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Both countries will observe Thanksgiving holiday. Technically, the pair still looks bullish but recent failure to continue much past September 9th high warns that a near term correction may be in the making.

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al_dcdemo 25 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The Yen is currently trading in the lower half of one of the smallest weekly ranges of this year. There were some geopolitical tensions yesterday but it wasn't enough to make any significant dent in risk trades, which soon rebounded. 122 is key to hold but below it we have possibly even more important 121.50 level where 50, 100 and 200 DMA may converge in the days ahead. On the upside the first stronger resistance is expected at 123.75 - 124.00 and then around 125.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In another sideways week, the pair has barely managed to produce a 100 pip range. It closed the week essentially unchanged. After a quick surge at the opening, the pair started to fall and touched as low as 122.25 on Wednesday morning. Thursday's range was one of the tightest in months as it measured only 25 pips. A new range appears to be 122 - 124.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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USD/JPY to Crack Under Pressure

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 116.300, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Japan #USD/JPY #Stock Market #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Risk Off #Sell Off
The Japanese Yen has been one of the major winners from the current stock market rout. This traditionally risk-off currency has benefited in August and September as the world's stock markets entered a correction phase. In August the USD/JPY fell by 274 pips while last month the pair lost a further 120 pips. We are currently consolidating within a larger downtrend, this is generally a trend-continuing pattern.
I expect that this downward trend will continue going into October. Seasonally, we see …
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USD/JPY to remain in balance

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.2500, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Strong Support #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly with concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster and…
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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: After it broke the symmetrical triangle pattern, the pair fell towards 118 and nearly touched the big figure. It was essentially a fake break below 118.25 - 118.75 support zone which was followed by a sharp reversal. The pair hit the above-mentioned pattern bottom on Friday, which behaved as expected. Next week will tell whether there's any downside left or the pair will return back to previous range with the mid point near 120.

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al_dcdemo 20 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The bottom of the symmetric triangle pattern, that was broken last week, has been acting as a tough resistance in the last three trading days. The pair is creeping below it but shows no intentions of turning back down. 50 DMA has crossed below 200 DMA on Friday after it has been below 100 DMA for nearly a month. Last week's breakdown roughly coincided with the cross but the pair wasn't able to produce a significant decline.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: The symmetric triangle was resolved in the most "market" way. Several fake breakouts to either side were followed by a "real" break to the downside, which proved to be fake. The pair seems to have convincingly broken above 120 level helped by risk-on sentiment spurred by ECB's dovishness and PBOC rate cuts. Stock are rallying and 125 is back in focus. 122.00 - 122.50 is the first strong barrier on the way there.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Yen rose more than two cents last week. It traded up to 121.50 and closed above 200 DMA. However, it has been falling since the beginning of this week, to as low as 120.15 in today's trading, before stalling. The big figure (120), also the mid point of the 118 - 122 range, shall hold if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias. On a break below, retest of the lower extreme of the range will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great analysis : )

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