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AUD/USD to start the year with gains

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Ascending Channel #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Aussie opened with a gap up but promptly lost 50 pips to 0.6925 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6980 - 0.7000. It looks supported since.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Australian currency continues to be offered. It so far declined more than a cent from yesterday's high, though it has moved mostly sideways during the past couple of hours. Marginally better than expected labour market report didn't manage to turn the sentiment around. Cycle-low, set last September near 0.6910, is within reach of few pips and is an immediate support ahead of the April 2009 low (~0.6850) and 0.68 level. Broken 0.6950 level (also previous day and week low) is now acting as a solid resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/JPY to trade lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.25, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Spike #Yen Strength #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Short Lived Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). The pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening. It retraced most of the losses but has been unable to get above 124.00.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke b…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 5: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 6: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. USD/JPY lost some 50 pips and traded down to Daily Support 1 (116.70) before turning back up and recouping the losses.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: The Yen continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Today, it briefly traded below August 2015 low (~116.20) and pierced 116 level which is an upper extreme of a strong 115.5 - 116 support zone. The support zone is a neckline of a big head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. If it gives way, measured move would target 105 - 107 which also includes 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 uptrend (~106.65), 2013 high (~105.5) and October 2014 low (~105.2).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The pair started the last day of the year on a solid footing, continuing the strength that has been seen throughout both holiday weeks. December's high (~0.7385) is the initial target ahead of 200 DMA (currently ~0.7415) though we probably won't see either of them achieved before next week. Buyers are likely to start coming in at 0.73 and below, keeping the pair well contained.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

UPDATE 10: Moves on the last day of the year were relatively big, reflecting final adjustments for the year in low liquidity. However, Aussie was not where the greatest action was. It's daily range was in fact the second smallest (~60 pips), behind the Kiwi (~45 pips) - as opposed to Swissie (~155 pips) and Cable (~120 pips). Last bid price before the end of the contest period was 0.72864, that's 38.6 pips below my target (0.7325). A good prediction with decent accuracy.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Jan.

Great  Analysis : )
Tanti auguri al_dcdemo
Do you think that the Oil retracement could improve at the opening session the forecast ?

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

foreignexchange Thank you! I too expect some oil strength in the first week of the year. It may definitely lend some support to the Aussie, but won't matter for this forecast though. :)

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USD/JPY to stay supported

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.2500, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Recovery #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Unclear Direction
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After a weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster …
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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al_dcdemo 8 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Final revision of Japanese GDP showed that the economy expanded in Q3 rather than contracted. Worries that the country entered a recession were diluted last week after much better than expected capital spending report. This may put some downside pressure on the pair. Technically, the pair has been confined to a 150 pip range (122.25 - 123.75) for nearly a month. 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are just about to converge, are a part of support band between 121.50 and 122.00. 124.00 - 124.25, which includes a trendline drawn off of June and August highs, may prove to be a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 16 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment in stock markets improved today while ten-year U.S. treasury yield gained 7bp. In addition, there was a broader U.S. dollar buying throughout the second part of the day - a lot if it must have been position adjustment ahead of tomorrow's big event. USD/JPY rallied 120 pips from the lows and gained nearly 70 pips on the day after it bounced from the trendline, drawn off of August and October lows. The pair is currently trading just above the confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA (~121-50), which will need to stay above if it wants to improve technical picture.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from Japan, after Retail Sales and Industrial Production data were released earlier today. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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AUD/USD consolidating, but higher lows noted

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 lev…
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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Aussie fell less than 50 pips immediately after much weaker than expected capex report, which was published yesterday. The pair didn't follow through lower but instead went sideways. That may be a sign of strength but it may also be due to thin holiday trading. We'll find out soon enough, when liquidity returns. 0.72 (100 DMA) should hold if the uptrend is to continue smoothly. 0.7150 (50 DMA, Broken Weekly Trendline) may prove to be a decent support in the event of a deeper pullback. 0.73 (Weekly Resistance 1) is the first resistance ahead of 0.7350 (Monthly Resistance 1).

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: After two weeks of gains, Australian dollar lost some 40 pips against the U.S. dollar with the weekly range of 120 pips. The pair started the week with a pullback and then rallied to new highs for the month. It was in the middle of another technical pullback when much weaker than expected capex report hit the wires. Although the impact was not so great at the time, the selling continued until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plethora of Australian data releases in the next week, including GDP and Trade Balance, along with the RBA meeting. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead features: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Depending on the outcome of aforementioned fundamental events, there is scope for the pair to retest the broken weekly trendline in the days ahead.

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al_dcdemo 30 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Aussie started the week with a 20 pip drop but it recovered to be around opening levels as I type. Commodities (particularly metals) are down, Chinese stocks too, but there was some encouraging data (MI Inflation Gauge, Company Operating Profits, Private Sector Credit) from Australia overnight. 0.7125 - 0.7150 support zone, that includes Previous Week Low, 50 DMA and broken Weekly Trendline (drawn off of September 2014, May 2015 and October 2015 highs), is crucial. 0.7200 - 0.7225, which hosts 100 DMA, is the immediate resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: RBA held rates plus there was some positive data from Australia and China overnight. The pair broke above last week's high in Asian session. 0.73 capped a second wave in early Europe and the pair is currently pausing below the big figure. The pair remained in a broad consolidation during the month of November, finishing just above its mid point, which is consistent with my forecast.

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AUD/USD may consolidate into year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7175, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Delayed Lift Off
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 0.70 level.…
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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The week started with a fake continuation higher on Monday followed by a sharp decline on Tuesday and in the first hours of Wednesday. A rally ensued which took the pair 160 pips higher to 100 DMA ahead of the above-mentioned weekly trendline. That proved to be the top and the pair fell back towards a classical symmetrical triangle consolidaton pattern bottom.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: After trading sideways and ever tighter from the beginning of the week, Aussie broke below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle at the start of today's European session. Next target is October 14th low (~0.72) and then 50 DMA (~0.7160) but the correction may extend all the way to 0.70 - 0.71. 100 DMA has so far held the topside, reinforced by the trendline drawn off September 5th 2014 and May 14th 2015 highs.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Aussie retested the bottom trendline of the broken symmetrical triangle before it sold off on news that the PBOC cut rates again. While this is generally supportive for risk assets, it is momentarily viewed as signaling a weakness in Chinese economy. 50 DMA (~0.7150) may be a good spot to go long, especially if the Fed sends another dovish message at next week's FOMC meeting.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Aussie fell nearly a cent overnight, on the back of weaker than expected inflation report. The report came out weaker on all measures and prompted some speculation about next week's RBA rate cut. The pair broke 50 DMA in the process and is currently trading just below it. 0.71 is the next support level to watch. 0.7175 - 0.7200 looks like a decent resistance now.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great analysis : )

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AUD/USD to correct after blow-off bottom

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7475, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakdown #Recovery #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Deeper Pullback
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently sitting between 61.8% retracem…
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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 2: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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al_dcdemo 5 Sep.

UPDATE 3: RBA stood pat at their meeting and, following muted initial response, the pair sold off - basically just continuing in the macro direction. After two days of consolidation the pair broke 0.70 level and fell almost full cent from there, closing on the lows. Percentage-wise, the pair was the loser of the week, shedding nearly 3.0% of its value.

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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Employment report, NAB Business Confidence and Chinese Trade Balance have the potential to move the pair in the week ahead along with PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. April 2009 low (0.6853) is the first stronger support level ahead of March 30th 2009 low (0.6769). 0.70 shall now act as a decent resistance, should the pair turn up.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The most notable development in the pair this week was its rejection of sub 0.70 prices. While Tuesday's rally may be viewed as a normal pullback (albeit quite strong), the speed, with which the second dip below 0.70 was soaked up, implies that perhaps a deeper pullback is in the making. The pair hasn't managed to retrace last week's range in full but appears poised to close the week near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: We'll get Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Bulletin and two RBA speeches (Debelle, Stevens) in the week ahead but all that will be shadowed by a far more important event - the long awaited September FOMC meeting. If the Fed hikes rates but sends a dovish message, the dip may prove to be a decent buying opportunity. If they don't hike, then the path to 0.75 may be clear.

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