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DAY 17 - UNDERSTANDING MARKET DYNAMICS

For me trading is all about long term equity growth rather than a single trade, so the outcome of a single trade should not matter, but at the same time one should be vigilant in managing each trade in logical manner. Often traders turn to breakeven instantly, once they are little bit in profit without understanding market dynamics which is in constant search of liquidity.
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Bearish dynamics

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 0.6032 - 0.6286 - 0.6631 - 0.6698 - 0.7003 -0.7312

Weekly Charts pattern : Triangle, Trendless, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

AUD/CHF is moving in a trendless/slightly bearish dynamics. The chart analysis indicates a slightly bearish trend can be supported by the chart analysis and the negative Hidden Markov indicator. Volume, RSI and Standard deviation analysis suggest trendless dynamics.

Daily Vision

T…
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foreignexchange avatar

Great analysis.    Probabile retracciamento del petrolio o del mercato cinese ?

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Durden 2 Oct.

The AUD/CHF  is in a slightly bullish regime. The AUD positive bias can be improved  by the Oil retracement. The hidden state target is evaluated at +0.2 % at US closing market.

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Durden 8 Oct.

The pair shows a slightly bullish regime. But Hidden markov model and RSI support the +0.3% of the AUD pair again the CHF counterpart.
AUS  Fundamental support the bullish side regime ( Oil and China economy retracement  )

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BEARISH DYNAMICS

INDICATORS: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM
KEY PRICE LEVELS : 115.3102 - 128.9192 - 133.9812

Weekly CHART PATTERNS : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly VISION

The pair is moving in bearish dynamics. The chart analysis and the Hidden Markov Models Analysis integrated with the RSI momentum indicator support the bearish tendency. The resistance zone is indicated at 133.9812 and the support zone is at 115.3102.

Daily VISION

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is i…
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Durden 3 Sep.

With the ECB release with the monetary policy meeting which is expected to keep unchanged the current monetary arrangement the pair CHF/JPY as a slightly correlated pair probably could privilege a slightly bullish regime.

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Durden 15 Sep.

The CHF/JPY chart analysis and the hidden markov model integrated BoJ monetary policy suggest a slightly bearish trend for the EU session.

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Rectangle trendless Figure Pattern


Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 0.8703 - 0.9402 - 0.95931 - 0.9992 - 1.1713

Weekly Charts pattern : Bearish triangle , rectangle trendless W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

AUD/CAD is moving in a slightly downtrend dynamics in a rectangle zone delimited by the resistance at 0.9992 and the support zone at 0.9402. The chart analysis bearish trend can be supported by the volume dynamics and the negative Hidden Markov indicator.

Daily Vision
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Durden 27 Aug.

The decision proposed by the Chinese authorities to devalue the renminbi give great volatility on the world market exchange. The interest rate decision in combination with the economic chinese releases make the EUR and the correlated pair ( CHF-SEK-NOK-PLN-GBP )  recovery a great profit opportunity. Instead of this USD buyers or JPY sellers sustainers slide on a difficult side of the markets.
Commodities Pairs like AUD-NZD-RUB-CAD shows deflective dynamics. In this scenario the AUD/CAD  chart indicates a no clear bias regime.

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Durden 3 Sep.

The forecast of the Crude Oil and the China monetary policy correlated with the AUD privilege a bearish tendency for the pair 

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Durden 15 Sep.

The  AUD/CAD chart analysis and the hidden markov model integrated with the China monetary policy suggest a slightly bearish trend for the EU session

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