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AUD/USD to start the year with gains

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Gru jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7425, Data: 1 z Luty, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Ascending Channel #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 9 Sty

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sty

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Aussie opened with a gap up but promptly lost 50 pips to 0.6925 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6980 - 0.7000. It looks supported since.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 14 Sty

UPDATE 6: Australian currency continues to be offered. It so far declined more than a cent from yesterday's high, though it has moved mostly sideways during the past couple of hours. Marginally better than expected labour market report didn't manage to turn the sentiment around. Cycle-low, set last September near 0.6910, is within reach of few pips and is an immediate support ahead of the April 2009 low (~0.6850) and 0.68 level. Broken 0.6950 level (also previous day and week low) is now acting as a solid resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Sty

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sty

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating

al_dcdemo Przesłano 21 Lis jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7325, Data: 1 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 29 Gru

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Gru

UPDATE 9: The pair started the last day of the year on a solid footing, continuing the strength that has been seen throughout both holiday weeks. December's high (~0.7385) is the initial target ahead of 200 DMA (currently ~0.7415) though we probably won't see either of them achieved before next week. Buyers are likely to start coming in at 0.73 and below, keeping the pair well contained.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sty

UPDATE 10: Moves on the last day of the year were relatively big, reflecting final adjustments for the year in low liquidity. However, Aussie was not where the greatest action was. It's daily range was in fact the second smallest (~60 pips), behind the Kiwi (~45 pips) - as opposed to Swissie (~155 pips) and Cable (~120 pips). Last bid price before the end of the contest period was 0.72864, that's 38.6 pips below my target (0.7325). A good prediction with decent accuracy.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Sty

Great  Analysis : )
Tanti auguri al_dcdemo
Do you think that the Oil retracement could improve at the opening session the forecast ?

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sty

foreignexchange Thank you! I too expect some oil strength in the first week of the year. It may definitely lend some support to the Aussie, but won't matter for this forecast though. :)

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AUD/USD consolidating, but higher lows noted

al_dcdemo Przesłano 31 Paź jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7275, Data: 1 z Grudzień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 lev…
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al_dcdemo 27 Lis

UPDATE 6: Aussie fell less than 50 pips immediately after much weaker than expected capex report, which was published yesterday. The pair didn't follow through lower but instead went sideways. That may be a sign of strength but it may also be due to thin holiday trading. We'll find out soon enough, when liquidity returns. 0.72 (100 DMA) should hold if the uptrend is to continue smoothly. 0.7150 (50 DMA, Broken Weekly Trendline) may prove to be a decent support in the event of a deeper pullback. 0.73 (Weekly Resistance 1) is the first resistance ahead of 0.7350 (Monthly Resistance 1).

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al_dcdemo 27 Lis

UPDATE 7: After two weeks of gains, Australian dollar lost some 40 pips against the U.S. dollar with the weekly range of 120 pips. The pair started the week with a pullback and then rallied to new highs for the month. It was in the middle of another technical pullback when much weaker than expected capex report hit the wires. Although the impact was not so great at the time, the selling continued until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 29 Lis

UPDATE 8: There will be plethora of Australian data releases in the next week, including GDP and Trade Balance, along with the RBA meeting. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead features: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Depending on the outcome of aforementioned fundamental events, there is scope for the pair to retest the broken weekly trendline in the days ahead.

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al_dcdemo 30 Lis

UPDATE 9: Aussie started the week with a 20 pip drop but it recovered to be around opening levels as I type. Commodities (particularly metals) are down, Chinese stocks too, but there was some encouraging data (MI Inflation Gauge, Company Operating Profits, Private Sector Credit) from Australia overnight. 0.7125 - 0.7150 support zone, that includes Previous Week Low, 50 DMA and broken Weekly Trendline (drawn off of September 2014, May 2015 and October 2015 highs), is crucial. 0.7200 - 0.7225, which hosts 100 DMA, is the immediate resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 Gru

UPDATE 10: RBA held rates plus there was some positive data from Australia and China overnight. The pair broke above last week's high in Asian session. 0.73 capped a second wave in early Europe and the pair is currently pausing below the big figure. The pair remained in a broad consolidation during the month of November, finishing just above its mid point, which is consistent with my forecast.

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AUD/USD may consolidate into year-end

al_dcdemo Przesłano 28 Wrz jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7175, Data: 2 z Listopad, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Delayed Lift Off
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 0.70 level.…
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al_dcdemo 17 Paź

UPDATE 6: The week started with a fake continuation higher on Monday followed by a sharp decline on Tuesday and in the first hours of Wednesday. A rally ensued which took the pair 160 pips higher to 100 DMA ahead of the above-mentioned weekly trendline. That proved to be the top and the pair fell back towards a classical symmetrical triangle consolidaton pattern bottom.

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al_dcdemo 21 Paź

UPDATE 7: After trading sideways and ever tighter from the beginning of the week, Aussie broke below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle at the start of today's European session. Next target is October 14th low (~0.72) and then 50 DMA (~0.7160) but the correction may extend all the way to 0.70 - 0.71. 100 DMA has so far held the topside, reinforced by the trendline drawn off September 5th 2014 and May 14th 2015 highs.

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al_dcdemo 23 Paź

UPDATE 8: Aussie retested the bottom trendline of the broken symmetrical triangle before it sold off on news that the PBOC cut rates again. While this is generally supportive for risk assets, it is momentarily viewed as signaling a weakness in Chinese economy. 50 DMA (~0.7150) may be a good spot to go long, especially if the Fed sends another dovish message at next week's FOMC meeting.

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al_dcdemo 28 Paź

UPDATE 9: Aussie fell nearly a cent overnight, on the back of weaker than expected inflation report. The report came out weaker on all measures and prompted some speculation about next week's RBA rate cut. The pair broke 50 DMA in the process and is currently trading just below it. 0.71 is the next support level to watch. 0.7175 - 0.7200 looks like a decent resistance now.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 Lis

Great analysis : )

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AUD/USD to correct after blow-off bottom

al_dcdemo Przesłano 27 Sie jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7475, Data: 1 z Październik, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakdown #Recovery #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Deeper Pullback
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently sitting between 61.8% retracem…
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al_dcdemo 29 Sie

UPDATE 2: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 Wrz

UPDATE 3: RBA stood pat at their meeting and, following muted initial response, the pair sold off - basically just continuing in the macro direction. After two days of consolidation the pair broke 0.70 level and fell almost full cent from there, closing on the lows. Percentage-wise, the pair was the loser of the week, shedding nearly 3.0% of its value.

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al_dcdemo 6 Wrz

UPDATE 4: Employment report, NAB Business Confidence and Chinese Trade Balance have the potential to move the pair in the week ahead along with PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. April 2009 low (0.6853) is the first stronger support level ahead of March 30th 2009 low (0.6769). 0.70 shall now act as a decent resistance, should the pair turn up.

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al_dcdemo 11 Wrz

UPDATE 5: The most notable development in the pair this week was its rejection of sub 0.70 prices. While Tuesday's rally may be viewed as a normal pullback (albeit quite strong), the speed, with which the second dip below 0.70 was soaked up, implies that perhaps a deeper pullback is in the making. The pair hasn't managed to retrace last week's range in full but appears poised to close the week near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Wrz

UPDATE 6: We'll get Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Bulletin and two RBA speeches (Debelle, Stevens) in the week ahead but all that will be shadowed by a far more important event - the long awaited September FOMC meeting. If the Fed hikes rates but sends a dovish message, the dip may prove to be a decent buying opportunity. If they don't hike, then the path to 0.75 may be clear.

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AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Lip jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7425, Data: 1 z Wrzesień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Consolidation #Demand #Fake Breakout #Range #Easing Bias #May 2010 Low #Real Breakout
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July.
Weekly chart:
Demand at 0.75 (level touted …
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al_dcdemo 10 Sie

UPDATE 4: Australian NAB Business Confidence (and few other lower-tier reports), Chinese Industrial Production, US retail sales and PPI reports are macroeconomic data points that will be watched in the week ahead. However, technicals are more important at the moment and the main question is how far the Aussie will extend before sellers step back in. If the RBA doesn't cut Cash Rate below 2.00% while the Australian economy recovers, 0.7235 may as well turn out to be the bottom.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Sie

UPDATE 5: The most notable event this week was the PBOC yuan devaluation, which impacted the pair strongly. PBOC weakened yuan fix three times: Tuesday (-1.9%), Wednesday (-1.6%) and Thursday (-1.1%). Second adjustment sent the pair to new six-year lows below 0.7250 but it bounced sharply from there and then went sideways for the remainder of the week. The result is a nice hammer on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sie

UPDATE 6: Apart from Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting, there's nothing of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Australia. Provided that there won't be any further PBOC shocks and that US inflation comes out around consensus, this relative lack of noise may allow for a clearer view of the pair's near term direction. I think the risk is to the upside, though.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Sie

UPDATE 7: Compared to weekly ranges in few other risk sensitive pairs, week in the Aussie was relatively calm. The range was defined on Monday when turmoil in global markets sent the pair within a striking distance from the big 0.70 level. The pair spent the remaining four trading days in that range while volatility has been falling towards the end of the week. It looks as a blow-off bottom, but it may not be.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Sie

UPDATE 8: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Cze jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7275, Data: 3 z Sierpień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
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al_dcdemo 25 Lip

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 Lip

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Lip

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Lip

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sie

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

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AUD/USD downtrend not over yet

al_dcdemo Przesłano 31 Mar jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7469, Data: 1 z Maj, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Range #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias #Decline
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following two months it traded in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but it finished March trading below 200 month SMA. Further down, some demand should come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and 0.70 big figure le…
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al_dcdemo 11 Kwi

UPDATE 3: This week was a complete opposite of the last week, as Aussie was the strongest of the major currencies. It was RBA and their decision to stay on hold that was keeping the pair underpinned. It didn't, however, manage to make any significant gains, as it remained in the lower half of the recent 0.7550 - 0.7590 range. It ended the week 30 odd pips higher, but that's quite an achievement compared to other major pairs, which moved 100 - 400 pips to the USD side.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 Kwi

UPDATE 4: Near-term direction will depend on the economic data from US and China, which will be coming throughout all week, and Aussie jobs report to be released on Thursday. Until then the risk is on the upside, unless the data from the States improves and/or Chinese disappoint. Range support extends from 0.7500 to 0.7550, while resistance is seen in 0.7900 - 0.7950 band. I expect the pair to remain contained between these two extremes at least until May RBA meeting.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Kwi

UPDATE 5: After two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Kwi

UPDATE 5: Following unconvincing price action but with two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 Kwi

UPDATE 6: Australian CPI report will be released on Wednesday and both headline CPI q/q and RBA's favorite Trimmed Mean CPI q/q are expected to come out lower. Any positive surprises could see the pair breaking above 100 DMA and testing range top near 0.7925. Otherwise most likely scenario is for the pair to remain in its recent 3-month range, as many market participants and indeed OIS are still projecting rate cut in May.

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AUD/USD to fall some more

al_dcdemo Przesłano 28 Luty jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7527, Data: 1 z Kwiecień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Stevens #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA and has been since consolidating around it. If the average breaks, there should be some demand at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70 big fig…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Mar

UPDATE 2: It was similar story as in other major pairs, just that declines were not as big as in European currencies. In addition, Thursday's pullback proved to be quite substantial (in relative terms) and the pair managed to preserve more gains. Technical picture is still bearish, but the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. If RBA doesn't cut on one of its next meetings and the data from Australia improve, pullback to 0.8000 - 0.8250 is not excluded.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Mar

UPDATE 3: After range-bound start to the week, the volatility exceeded all expectations on Wednesday, after Fed revealed that they are in no hurry to hike rates. The pair surged almost 200 pips in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting, but then came back all the way to the weekly lows before continuing higher on Friday. It closed the week just below 50 DMA and this will be the first resistance to overcome, if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Mar

UPDATE 4: What looked like a potential break higher in the beginning of the week as the pair briefly traded above February 26 high and came into vicinity of 100 DMA, turned sour, when it reversed in landslide fashion afterwards, with the pair closing the week below 50 DMA. 20 DMA is now the immediate support, before cycle low at 0.7560 and 0.75 level.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Kwi

Congratulation

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Kwi

Thanks! I'd like it to fall a bit further in the next two hours. :)

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