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USD/CHF to remain range-bound for now

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9725, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Fake Breakdown
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 9: There appears to have been some progress on the U.S. tax reform but it is all words so far. Trump hasn't managed to repeal and replace Obamacare but maybe he could gather sufficient support for lowering some taxes. USD/CHF made another attempt at the strong resistance area at 0.975 - 0.98 this afternoon but pulled back sharply. That area is backed by descending 2016 - 2017 trendline and 200 DMA. 0.97 is the initial support and then 0.965.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 10: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 11: The pair opened around Friday's closing levels and headed higher first thing in the morning but the rally stalled right around my prediction target of 0.9725 before pulling back. Range trading is the name of the game still and any serious attempt at 0.9750 - 0.98 resistance area will probably require cooperation from EUR/USD bears. All in all, I didn't get the price path quite right in this forecast period but, if I exclude those two spikes below 0.95, I was fairly close. The pair was trading some 20 pips off my target at the end of the period.

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16 of Sep (2) : Fake Break Down on GBPNZD

ForexSpeaker Posted 16 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Bulish #Gbpnzd #Fake Breakdown
good afternoon dukatrader
according to candlestick and for fake breakdown i m with a bullish position on gbpnzd on chart 5M
and our stop lose below the last low candle stick to protect our equity
the same with the correlation pairs like GBPJPY ,, i risked on this position too
have agreat day and good luck in trading
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