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NZD/USD will remain heavy

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年08月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.6475, 予想日: 1日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Decline #Downtrend #Risk Off #Short Trade #Global Stock Markets #Sharp Spike Lower #Rate Cuts
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 before pulling back.
Weekly cha…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年09月27日

UPDATE 8: ANZ Business Confidence is the only noteworthy data point from New Zealand on next's week calendar. However, month-end and quarter-end flows combined with a slew of US economic events (Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP report) will most likely provide decent volatility. 0.6225 - 0.6450 is the range that is protected by 50 DMA on the topside and strong support into 0.62 (also July 2009 low) at the bottom.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年09月29日

UPDATE 9: The pair started the week on a softer note but after 100 pip fall it pulled right back into the middle of its recent trading range between 0.6250 and 0.6450. Despite weakness in commodities and general risk-off sentiment, indecision has been the name of the game in the pair during the past few weeks. It may be that it has fallen enough, but most likely it's just another pause before continuation lower.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2015年09月30日

Great analysis as well! And quite close to the market price, may still get closer.

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2015年09月30日

great forecast, will come down to the wire tomorrow

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月01日

Thanks to both!

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USD/JPY technicals muddy

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年08月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 119.7500, 予想日: 1日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Strong Support #Risk Off #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Market Rout #Cycle High #Global Stock Markets
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2015年09月30日

now at 17 pips away, nice!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月01日

Thanks! It looks good at the moment. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2015年10月01日

Great : )

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月01日

Thanks :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月01日

UPDATE 10: Attempt to break to the upside of the aforementioned pattern failed but the pair didn't decline past the pattern's bottom either. Volatility continues to fall as this week's range is even smaller and basically less than 100 pips. I'm very happy with the outcome because uncertainty after August 24th market rout made the whole thing difficult to predict.

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