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Filtrowane przez tagi:  Key Reversal
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EUR/JPY bounces on technicals and improved risk sentiment

al_dcdemo Przesłąno 6 Mar  w #Trader's blog #EUR/JPY #Support #Resistance #Golden Cross #Key Reversal #Risk Sentiment #D1 Chart
EUR/JPY posted a key reversal on the daily chart yesterday, after trading to the lowest level since last August and touching 50 and 200 WMA. The first average is about to cross above the second one, a.k.a. the golden cross. While I expect euro to remain supported, much will depend on yen. If we do get a deeper retracement, I'd expect 133 - 134 to cap it, at least initially.
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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Przesłano 31 Mar jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.0557, Data: 1 z Maj, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bullish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Channel Line #Key Reversal #Bearish Technicals
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 6 Kwi

UPDATE 2: After NFP debacle on Friday, there's definitely potential for some further upside in the days ahead. Especially if US data continues to disappoint. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday will be closely watched, while FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be subject to even more scrutiny. 50 DMA near 1.1030 and January low at 1.1098 are the first strong resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 11 Kwi

UPDATE 3: In the worst week since mid-January, the pair has lost nearly four cents (392 pips), while weekly range extended more than 450 pips. After it has broken post-NFP high in the early part of Monday's US session, the pair looked poised for a break above March high (1.10522) and continuation higher. That didn't happen and the pair reversed lower with gusto. The decline continued in a familiar fashion with shallow pullbacks, shedding 50 - 100 pips each day until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 12 Kwi

UPDATE 4: There's ECB meeting on Wednesday, so the most likely scenario is that the pair will consolidate on Monday and Tuesday. Support is found at the monthly declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows) near 1.0550 and then at the March cycle-low (1.0462). In the event that the pair corrects to the upside, March 31 low should offer some resistance, before 20 DMA near 1.0850.

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al_dcdemo 18 Kwi

UPDATE 5: It looked like the pair will challenge 1.0450 low that was set on March 13, but sharp rejection from 1.05 level on Monday was one of the first signs that it won't go that easily. On Tuesday, the sentiment was reversed after weaker than expected US Retail Sales report. It was an uptrend from there till the end of the week, but one with deep pullbacks which demonstrated that there's still two-way interest in the pair.

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al_dcdemo 19 Kwi

UPDATE 6: In the week ahead, there will be plenty market moving events that could impact the pair: ZEW on Tuesday; Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs on Thursday; Ifo survey on Friday with Eurogroup Meetings to boot. The first strong resistance comes in a way of 50 DMA, which has contained the downtrend since May 2014. Daily close above it would open path to 1.1098 weekly resistance, but false break and continuation lower is just as likely.

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