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GBP/JPY, another wave formed (updated Nov 24th)

Cules Posted 24 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Channel Line
Dear you guys,
This pair continues to forme another wave in channel. Price has been confirmed and buy from here.
Trade with your plan.
Good luck !
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Long term bias is still bullish

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on USD/SEK, Target: 8.3565, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Harmonic Trading #Fibonacci Levels #USD/SEK #Bullish Signs #Channel Line
Daily Vision

The pair was indecisive last week formed a Doji on weekly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above support area.
I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase targeting 8.3565.
Immediate resistance is seen around daily close. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing some resistance areas. While an immediate support is seen around weekly close.
A clear break below that area could trigger…
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Ucef 29 Mar.

Update: The pair had a bearish momentum last week. Price slipped above the trend line resistance but closed back below the trend line resistance created a false breakout bearish scenario as you can see on my H1 chart below.
The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing support line. Immediate resistance is seen around the weakly open. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting the trend line resistance.

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Ucef 29 Mar.

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Further bullish pressure

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on USD/RUB, Target: 70.1777, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Harmonic Trading #USD/RUB #Fibonacci Levels #Bullish Bias #Channel Line
Daily Vision

The pair attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at support line but closed higher in another high volatile market.
We have been seeing a strong bearish market for the last two weeks where the pair slump more than 1500 pips without significant correction and the next potential target is seen around (weekly EMA 200) at 70.1777.
The bias is bearish in nearest term. And an immediate resistance is seen around the daily close. While a clear break above that area could lead price …
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Ucef 31 Mar.

Update: This pair had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at a resistance line. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break and consistent movement above some pivot levels.
And retesting some key trend line resistances. Immediate support is seen around the daily open. A clear break back below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the false breakout bearish scenario remain strong testing some trend line resistances.

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Long term bias is still bullish

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/CHF, Target: 0.6434, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/CHF #Harmonic Trading #Fibonacci Levels #Bullish Trend #Channel Line
Daily Vision

The pair was indecisive last week formed a Doji on weekly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above support area.
I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase targeting 0.6434.
Immediate resistance is seen around daily close. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing some resistance areas. While an immediate support is seen around weekly close.
A clear break below that area could trigger…
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Bearish harmonic pattern

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/ZAR, Target: 17.0234, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliot Wave #Fibonacci Levels #Bearish Trend #Channel Line #EUR/ZAR
Daily Vision
The pair trend is bearish in daily time frame. Vital resistance is present at weekly close. In past few trading days, price has completed possible bearish impulse Wave-A and moved up.
Based on Elliott wave analysis, I now expect price action to print bullish Wave B. The trend is bearish and a good idea is to look for a sell trading chance to join the down trend after the end of bullish Wave B leg in current time frame or smaller time frame targeting 17.0234.
However, if bullish c…
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The long term bias is still bullish on XAU/USD

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on XAU/USD, Target: 1 204.23, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Patterns #Trend Line #Breakdown #XAU/USD #Levels #Bearish Signs #Support Area #Downward Channel #Channel Line
Daily Vision

The XAUUSD was indecisive last week formed a Doji on weekly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as stays above 1 695.23.
I still prefer a bullish intraday scenario at this phase targeting 1 685.23 region.
Immediate resistance is seen around 1 254.23. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1 654.23 region. Immediate support is seen around 1 232.23.
A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pre…
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USD/CHF have been seeing a strong bearish market

Ucef Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9860, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Patterns #Breakouts #USD/CHF #Levels #Fibonacci Levels #Bullish Bias #Support Area #Channel Line #Trendlines
Daily Vision

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 0.9458 but closed higher at 0.9456 in another high volatile market.
We have been seeing a strong bearish market for the last two weeks where the pair slump more than 1000 pips without significant correction and the next potential target is seen around 0.9147 (weekly EMA 200).
The bias is bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9914 . A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in near…
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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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EUR/USD may pull back ahead of ECB and FOMC

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 wer…
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al_dcdemo 4 Dec.

UPDATE 5: ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE. Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.

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al_dcdemo 11 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since. 1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 14 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025. In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060. There's possibility of fake breakouts ahead of the FOMC. Though I'd say the risk is to the upside, at least until 76.4% retracement of the last D1 downswing (~1.1250) is hit.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier European data, released mainly on Wednesday, most likely won't have any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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EURo to remain heavy

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 were cleared. …
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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750. Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Euro lost nearly a cent in the past week against the dollar. Weekly range was worth little less than a cent and a half. The pair started the week on the back foot and convincingly broke below 1.07. It fell to as low as 1.0617, the lowest since mid April. It corrected some of its losses on Thursday, but then Draghi's speech on Friday sent it back to the lows.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead features a couple of European economic indicators, including PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate. U.S. will report several important data points too: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technical bias in the pair is still bearish though probability of a near term correction is rising as we are approaching 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Euro lost about a half of a cent against the dollar this week. The range has been tighter than the previous week's one - it was roughly a cent and a quarter wide. The pair extended its decline past last week's low and also closed there. Since mid October, when Draghi revealed that the ECB will review its current policy, the pair has posted five losing weeks out of six.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Next week is the first big week of December, particularly for the Euro. ECB will likely cut the deposit rate and perhaps extend and/or expand its QE program. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair is holding just above the resistance band, defined by March (~1.0460) and April (~1.0520) lows. We'll not have to wait too long to see whether it holds or breaks.

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