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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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EUR/USD may pull back ahead of ECB and FOMC

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 wer…
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al_dcdemo 4 Dec.

UPDATE 5: ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE. Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.

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al_dcdemo 11 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since. 1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 14 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025. In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060. There's possibility of fake breakouts ahead of the FOMC. Though I'd say the risk is to the upside, at least until 76.4% retracement of the last D1 downswing (~1.1250) is hit.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier European data, released mainly on Wednesday, most likely won't have any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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EURo to remain heavy

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 were cleared. …
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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750. Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Euro lost nearly a cent in the past week against the dollar. Weekly range was worth little less than a cent and a half. The pair started the week on the back foot and convincingly broke below 1.07. It fell to as low as 1.0617, the lowest since mid April. It corrected some of its losses on Thursday, but then Draghi's speech on Friday sent it back to the lows.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead features a couple of European economic indicators, including PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate. U.S. will report several important data points too: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technical bias in the pair is still bearish though probability of a near term correction is rising as we are approaching 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Euro lost about a half of a cent against the dollar this week. The range has been tighter than the previous week's one - it was roughly a cent and a quarter wide. The pair extended its decline past last week's low and also closed there. Since mid October, when Draghi revealed that the ECB will review its current policy, the pair has posted five losing weeks out of six.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Next week is the first big week of December, particularly for the Euro. ECB will likely cut the deposit rate and perhaps extend and/or expand its QE program. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair is holding just above the resistance band, defined by March (~1.0460) and April (~1.0520) lows. We'll not have to wait too long to see whether it holds or breaks.

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EUR/USD to continue to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 2: It was a range-bound week in the pair, though the range was of decent size, nearly 200 pips. One notable characteristics is the convergence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are forming a strong support zone near 1.1150. The pair was testing the zone while surprisingly weaker than expected US payroll report was released and that sent it all the way to the other side of the range.

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al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 3: Following poor NFP report, strongly rally and a decent pullback on Friday, Euro started the week as expected and rose 80+ pips from the open. The rally stalled ahead of resistance band at 1.1300 - 1.1325 (00's, Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Week High). It pulled back and is finding some support between 1.1235 and 1.1250 (H4 200 SMA, 50's, H4 100 SMA, Monthly Pivot Point). If it doesn't turn back up from here, 200 DMA (~1.1170) may come back into focus.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: The pair broke from recent consolidation between 1.11 and 1.13. It gained 130 pips on the week despite that euro was sold strongly against commodity currencies. Combo of three daily moving averages (now at 1.1150 -  1.1200) proved as a solid support while also providing "golden cross" signal. 50 DMA crossed over 200 DMA last Friday, 100 DMA is just about to do the same.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The pair ended the week about 15 pips lower. Starting with sideways action on Monday, volatility picked up on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday when the pair broke above September high (1.1460) and tested 1.15. The test was successful and the pair pared all gains in the remaining two days. Weekly candle resembles a shooting star and implies a retest of recent range bottom near 1.11.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Euro started the week with lacklustre sideways trading in a 40-pip range. Highlight of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and, while many are expecting them to signal further easing, chances are that it won't happen yet. The pair is now trading comfortably above 50, 100 and 200 DMA and looks well supported in the dips in this weak dollar environment.

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EUR/USD to stay in upward sloping channel

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1525, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Calendar for the week ahead is lacking significant Euroarea events, while US top tier events (PPI, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment) are scarce too. Technically, the pair is holding just above 50 and 100 DMA with an additional buffer of 80 pips down to 1.10 level. And, if all that fails, there's channel support zone (1.09 - 1.10) as the last line of defence for the bulls.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The pair spent the first part of this lacklustre week in a tight sideways congestion, slowly grinding up and managed to close post-ECB decline by Thursday. On the same day the pair broke higher and traded up at 1.13 before pulling back. It appears poised to close the week below that level, but it depends on what today's US session and pre-weekend flows may bring.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be big not only for the Euro but for all global markets. FOMC will meet on September 17th and it is quite possible that they will initiate the long awaited tightening of their monetary policy. If that materializes, the pair may find itself testing 1.10 and perhaps below, depending on the rhetorics from the committee. On the flipside, if they pass on the lift-off, the pair may get quick to bump into 1.15.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Euro staged an impressive rally yesterday but then reversed at the end of the European session. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen right after the US market close led to another 60 pip decline and the pair is now trading near yesterday's opening levels. The pair is sandwitched between three important moving averages: 200 DMA above (~1.1190) and 50 and 100 DMA below (~1.1145). Judging by yesterday's strong rejection near 1.13, perhaps the most likely scenario is a retest of the seven-month channel bottom near 1.10.

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al_dcdemo 28 Sep.

UPDATE 8: There's plenty of economic data coming out from Europe this week, but nothing particularly market moving apart from perhaps inflation report. Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures will be the main events from across the big pond. Ignoring DMAs, initial support is seen in 1.1090 - 1.1120 band (Previous Day Low, Previous Week Low, 00's, Weekly Support 1) and resistance between 1.1240 and 1.1260 (Daily Resistance 1, 50's, Monthly Pivot Point).

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