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EUR/AUD reversal with rising wedge?

Pete69 Posted 22 Aug.  in #Reversal #Euraud #Rising Wedge
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Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6975, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

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Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Kiwi to retest support near 0.685

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 14 Nov.

UPDATE 5: NZD/USD slipped 50 pips overnight on no particular news. Higher timeframe momentum resumed, sending the pair down to test 2016/2017 support in 0.68 - 0.685 area. If the area gives way, we could see some stop-loss selling but I'd expect dip buyers to start emerging near 0.675.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 8: NZD/USD started the week on a firm note. The pair fell to one-year low near 0.6775 ahead and after the game-changing outcome of the New Zealand election. Adjustment lower may be over for now with RBNZ turning slightly more hawkish. 0.70 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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22 NOV 16 UPDATE ON GBPJPY

killer195175 Posted 22 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Reversal #Downtrend #Resistance Area
Hello fellow traders,
Yesterday we talked about rejection of GBPJPY at 138.77 levels. Today once again the pair has been rejected at 138.83 making a
double top pattern and thus confirming that this is a good supply zone. I am short from yesterday at 138.415 with stop loss 139.000
and take profit at 136.000.
DAILY CHART
4H CHART
Once interesting fact is that the line joining the previous highs is still near 142.000 levels from where we can see a huge supply. On
4 Hour chart the price has started …
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21 NOV 16 GBPJPY MEETS PREVIOUS HIGH

killer195175 Posted 21 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #Price Action #Reversal #Gbpusd #Horizontal
Hello fellow traders,
GBPJPY along with other majors have beaten yen down and reached previous high of 138.77 zone. Here we may see supply and price may fall but seeing the huge momentum nothing can be said for sure. More aggressive traders may sell here with stop above 139.50 and may target 132.50. But till the time of writing this post there was no sign of any price action in favour of sell. So wait and let the candlesticks to confirm a sell. if the price is able to break above this zone then …
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Cable stages a reversal

al_dcdemo Updated 17 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Profit Taking #D1 Chart #Killing
Cable staged an impressive reversal yesterday, sadly after the killing of a British MP, a supporter of the Remain campaign. A big part of it was probably just profit taking in GBP/JPY after stops below 150 were cleared all the way to 145.
Cable posted a hammer-like reversal on the daily chart and followed through overnight. 1.43 - 1.4350 is the next stronger support (May low, 100 DMA, broken February - April trendline) and then 1.4450 - 1.45 (includes 50 DMA). 1.42 is the initial support.
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NZD/USD to catch-up with AUD/USD losses

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6575, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 9 June

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25%, released relatively upbeat statement and then governor Wheeler didn't give an impression that they would want to cut anytime soon. Many in the market expected a cut or at least a strong hint of a cut in August. They didn't get that and the pair jumped 75 pips on the decision and added another 50 in the hours after. It broke above the 2015 - 2016 rising wedge and stalled near 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downtrend. 100 WMA is the next resistance while 0.70 shall now act as a stronger support.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will be likely felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the European Union. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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EUR/USD to consolidate into June

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1225, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Risk Sentiment #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows and rein…
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 7: It has been all about the yen today with USD/JPY tumbling 240 pips, to the lowest since August 2014, after the BOJ left policy unchanged. There has also been strong demand for the U.S. dollar with the euro and the franc both losing more than a cent from their highs. EUR/USD completely reversed post-FOMC gains and is trading on the lowest level since the NFP report earlier in the month. December - June trendline is the first stronger support level to watch before 1.1070 - 1.11 area (May low, 200 DMA, 50.0% retracement). 1.12 and 100 DMA are the potential resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 9: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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al_dcdemo 1 July

UPDATE 10: Euro has corrected nearly half of the Brexit-induced losses after it bounced off of 61.8% retracement of the December - January uptrend. Broken December - January trendline is the first stronger resistance before 100 and 50 DMA. The pair is holding just above 200 DMA near 1.11 level but there seems to be good demand all the way to 1.10. It seems unlikely in the near-term but, in case of second round selling, long-term trendline (currently 1.0825) could come into focus.

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EURo breaks below the April low

al_dcdemo Updated 20 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Reversal #EUR/USD #Selling #D1 Chart
Since the reversal on May 3rd, euro has lost more than four cents against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA (1.1315) on Wednesday and the April low (1.1215) yesterday before it stalled near 38.2% retracement (1.12) of the December - May uptrend.
There's more support at 100 DMA (1.1150), 200 DMA (1.11) and 50.0% retracement (1.1070) which currently coincides with the December - May channel bottom. 1.1250 - 1.13 looks like a decent sell zone.
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