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Kiwi to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Confluence #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo 10 Nov.

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% from 2.00% yesterday. Governor Wheeler said that it was likely the last rate cut in this cycle but that they stand ready to intervene in the currency market at any time. Kiwi was initially bought but reversed soon thereafter on intervention talk, aligning with the current U.S. dollar trade. The pair broke below 50 and 100 DMA today and is currently recovering from a sub 0.72 dip. Sellers may be waiting closer to 0.7250.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 6: In the second week after the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 7: New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off. The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA) should see some demand.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Kiwi dollar took advantage of yesterday's U.S. dollar weakness and bounced smartly after it broke below a confluence of October low, 2015 - 2016 trendline, 200 DMA and 0.70 level. The currency is a top G10 high-yielder and should stay in favour even as U.S. dollar yields gradually rise. The current pullback may find some resistance at the late October lows (0.71) and then near 50 and 100 DMA (0.72). Area between 0.70 and 0.6880 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA, H2 2015 highs) will come into focus, should the downtrend reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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Kiwi may pull back a bit in October

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA …
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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 22 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The New Zealand dollar remains one of the most wanted G10 major currencies due to its relatively high yield and creditworthiness of the country. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut its official cash rate in November but this appears to have been largely priced in by now. Better than expected inflation data helped to propel the pair to around 0.7250 mid-week before a profit-taking pullback took it back to 0.7150. The interim high coincided with 50 DMA which makes it the first stronger resistance level to watch on the upside. 100 DMA at 0.7175 should not prove to be too big of a hurdle.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Major currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Kiwi to continue to rise despite the dovish RBNZ

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently above 100 week SMA while…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in every G7 major currency pair. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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NZD/USD to hold above 0.70

al_dcdemo Posted 27 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Big Figure Level #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA for the most of the year while 0.70 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged on the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later in 2016.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by the Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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NZD/USD to catch-up with AUD/USD losses

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6575, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 9 June

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25%, released relatively upbeat statement and then governor Wheeler didn't give an impression that they would want to cut anytime soon. Many in the market expected a cut or at least a strong hint of a cut in August. They didn't get that and the pair jumped 75 pips on the decision and added another 50 in the hours after. It broke above the 2015 - 2016 rising wedge and stalled near 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downtrend. 100 WMA is the next resistance while 0.70 shall now act as a stronger support.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will be likely felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the European Union. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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RBNZ may start weighing on NZD/USD

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6875, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range #Sharp Rejection
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a hefty part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 16 May

UPDATE 6: Following weak Chinese data over the weekend, both Aussie and Kiwi opened with a gap lower. The former rose from the open while the latter, whose gap was smaller, traded lower in the early Asian session before rising too. This is the second time that Kiwi bounced from the strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band, which includes February highs and 100 DMA. The topside has been capped by 50 DMA recently. Whichever DMA will give way first will likely determine the direction of the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a huge surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were decent for a Monday however and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 27 May

UPDATE 9: Kiwi has been contained between 50 DMA and 100 DMA for three weeks. It may look a bit heavy with lower highs and lower lows but what it has been carving out is a falling wedge which is generally a bullish pattern. Strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band (February highs, 100 DMA) has been holding well with 0.6650 - 0.6670 (late March low, 200 DMA) the next important area. Initial resistance at 0.6775 is followed by 0.6825 (April - May support/resistance line, 50 DMA).

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NZD/USD will continue to edge up

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Broadening Formation #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected data from China overnight has in part been the driver of Kiwi strength today as it reversed all yesterday's losses and some before pulling back in the last couple of hours. My thinking was that the pair would reverse lower after running stops above 0.69 but it remains well supported in the dips and continuation higher seems more likely at this point.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for these positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead features Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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NZD/USD to revisit range bottom in March

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6375, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Indecision #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 10 Mar.

UPDATE 5: In an (un)surprising move, RBNZ cut the official cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50% and hinted on additional cuts which will depend on data. Reasons for the cut are weak global growth outlook, high exchange rate and declining inflation expectations. Technically, the bank prevented Kiwi from rising above October and December highs, at least for now. After 150 pip fall, the pair is stalling ahead of confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA. 0.65 - 0.6550 is the next stronger support band to watch.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Kiwi so far gained about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. will resume trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 30 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Remarks in the speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen sparked a dollar sell-off across the board. Recent hawkish tones by a number of Fed speakers had markets expecting something a bit less dovish than the latest FOMC statement. The winner of the day was the Kiwi, which rose 80 pips before the event and about 70 pips afterwards. We can expect some buy stops to be triggered at and above 0.69 but probably plenty of new supply into 0.70.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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NZD/USD to revisit bottom of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Demand #NZD/USD #Trading Range #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 3: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Mostly owing to U.S. dollar weakness, Kiwi proved to be impressively resilient amid market turmoil. It is currently down on the week only against the lowest of low yielders: euro, yen and franc. Declining 2014 - 2015 trendline, reinforced by the broken September - December trendline and 200 DMA, remains the resistance level to watch. If it gives way, 0.69 - 0.70 will come into focus. 50 and 100 DMA are the immediate support levels ahead of 0.65 - 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 5: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 20 Feb.

UPDATE 6: World stock and commodity markets stabilized somewhat along with an overall improvement in risk sentiment. Volatility in major currency pairs fell, particularly in commodity-linked ones. Kiwi ended the week not very far from the opening levels with a similarly unimpressive weekly range - barely over 100 pips. This is most likely just a temporary calm as global macroeconomic landscape remains very much the same.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Kiwi lost almost 100 pips on the day with the daily range more than 150 pips. It posted outside down day which may lead to more losses in the days ahead.

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NZD/USD to remain bid into new year

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz #Risk Off Spike #Sma Cross
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and pulled back sharply in October. The pullback is the longest since the downtrend …
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Kiwi opened with a small gap up but promplty lost 50 pips to 0.6510 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6550. It went sideways from there.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 7: China released its GDP, industrial production and retail sales data overnight. All three data points slightly missed their respective estimates, which was not entirely unexpected. The numbers were not as bad as feared though and, after a brief sell-off, risk trades rebounded. Having fallen 450 pips since the beginning of the year, Kiwi is poised to close in the green for the second consecutive day and post only the third green day this year. 0.64 looks like a short-term bottom now that the pair has bounced towards 100 DMA (~0.6580) and 50 DMA (~0.6640).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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