Community
Blog

Community Blog

Add post
Filtered by tags:  Neutral Rbnz
Avatar

Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6975, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

10 Comments
View 5 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to retest support near 0.685

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 14 Nov.

UPDATE 5: NZD/USD slipped 50 pips overnight on no particular news. Higher timeframe momentum resumed, sending the pair down to test 2016/2017 support in 0.68 - 0.685 area. If the area gives way, we could see some stop-loss selling but I'd expect dip buyers to start emerging near 0.675.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 8: NZD/USD started the week on a firm note. The pair fell to one-year low near 0.6775 ahead and after the game-changing outcome of the New Zealand election. Adjustment lower may be over for now with RBNZ turning slightly more hawkish. 0.70 is the next target.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to fall further in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Pullback #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #200 Day Sma #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 4: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes after that.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: New Zealand dollar spiked on better than expected inflation report (1.9% year-over-year) overnight but pared all gains in subsequent hours as RBNZ's own inflation measure showed just 1.4%. We are still waiting for Winston Peters to decide which coalition his party will join. Kiwi traders have been understandably cautious after 150-pip rally from the lows near 0.7050. 0.72 is the initial hurdle on the way to 0.73 - 0.7350 resistance area. 200 DMA near 0.7150 is the immediate support ahead of a stronger one near 0.71.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the Japanese yen.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi pullback may not yet be over

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Aug. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Pullback #Golden Cross #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 201…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

10 Comments
View 5 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi remains supported but contained ahead of the general election on the weekend. There's also New Zealand second quarter GDP coming up on Wednesday evening (Thursday morning in N.Z.), just a couple of hours after the FOMC decision. The pair is bumping into 0.73 - 0.7350 area, which capped the pair in 2016 and earlier this year, and includes 50 DMA. A successful break would put 0.75 back into focus. 0.72 is the first stronger support, reinforced by 100 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Sep.

UPDATE 8: New Zealand GDP came in as expected, at 0.8% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, but that did little to support the pair which was already being offered following more hawkish than expected Fed. Pre-election adjustments also going on. The pair traded to as high as 0.7430 yesterday but has so far retraced to 0.73. It is currently stalling near 50 DMA. Some further correction is possible with 0.7250 and then 0.72 the support levels to watch. 0.7350 is the initial resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in treasury bond yields after more hawkish than expected Fed last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Kiwi dollar looks heavy as it holds just above 200 DMA. The currency is being weighed on by the wait for the election outcome, which could still take a few more weeks, by October 7th or even 12th. The mentioned moving average is the immediate support and August low is the next one. If that gives way, 61.8% retracement of the May - July rally will come into focus. 0.72 is the first stronger resistance level.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to gain some more in August

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Golden Cross #Strong Rally #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair just broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

14 Comments
View 9 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

Thanks a lot :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currency pairs sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There's been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of this week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what the ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after exceptional GDP figure. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. jobs & wages report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to trade towards 0.75 in July

al_dcdemo Posted 22 June as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz #Declining Channel
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi confirmed the 0.685 - 0.745 range as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair looks to be on the way to the opposite extreme which in…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

10 Comments
View 5 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.1450 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.7450, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 7: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic picture. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't uncover anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but most likely not for too long.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 4 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Kiwi sold off on Wednesday as New Zealand jobs report came in weaker than expected. The country's labour market is in a pretty good shape still, the minor pullback in Employment Change came after six quarters of expansion. As commitments of traders report shows, speculators have grown longs to a record level. Some of those who traded the break above 0.74 would probably want to reassess their positions. 0.7375 has already proved to be the first stronger support.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to test the upside in June

al_dcdemo Posted 27 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rejection #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and traded in a rising channel until February. It recently confirmed the 0.685 - 0.745 range as 2015 - 2016 support/res…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The No.1 reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: The FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 7: Kiwi has been on a quite a bull run since mid May. U.S. dollar weakness appears to have been the main driver. The pair has posted four consecutive green weeks and surged above the channel trendline on Wednesday. Those prices were not sustained and Kiwi pulled back sharply. A period of consolidation and/or correction seems to be the most likely scenario. 0.7170 - 0.72 is the immediate support band. 0.7225 - 0.7250 is the resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 June

UPDATE 8: RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%. Rate statement was little changed. Both wages and inflation are expected to increase gradually. Monetary policy is to remain accommodative for a considerable period. Comment on New Zealand dollar was softer than many expected. Kiwi jumped about half a cent after the release and stabilized near 0.725 in following hours. Month's high near 0.7325 is the next target and then year's high at 0.7375. Strong support area at 0.7175 - 0.72 should continue to hold if buyers are to remain in control.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded two cents. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi looks soggy but buyers are waiting in the dips

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Channel #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and was contained in a rising channel until recently. 2015/2016 support/resistance line and 100 week SMA are providing …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. The U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 6: In what was its worst week of the year, the dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 7: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It's Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 8: Last week was better for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Commodity currencies are back in favour after some hard time at the start of the month. Loonie and Kiwi both pulled from their cycle-lows while Aussie was bought up ahead of the trendline that connects January and December 2016 lows. A lot depends on the Fed and their tightening pace as BOC, RBA and RBNZ are likely to delay their hikes for as much as possible. Each of the three pairs is trading in a well established consolidaton pattern and it will take either a broad fundamental catalyst or some idiosyncratic risk to break that.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to remain in range for now

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7075, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Channel #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has been mostly contained in a rising channel since then. Just as 50 week SMA crossed above 100 week SMA, the pair …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against all major currencies. What we are seeing could be a beginning of a complete reversal of the Trump trade. Expectations of a big fiscal stimulus have been greatly dampened in recent weeks. Inflation and retail sales reports both came weak on Friday. That said, Fed is likely to continue to normalize monetary policy, and it may pay to buy any dollar dip at some later point. Price action in the week ahead could well be dominated by flows ahead of the first round of the French presidental election.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't seen a great deal of impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 20 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Kiwi jumped about 40 pips on the release of better than expected quarterly inflation report. CPI (YoY) rose above RBNZ target band mid-point (2.0%) for the first time in five years. The bank previously warned that a rise in inflation could be temporary. The pair is trading near the bottom of the two-year channel. Shorter-term, it looks solid in the upper part of the 0.69 - 0.71 range, which may be extended to the upside in the weeks ahead. 0.7130 (February lows, 200 DMA) looks like a strong resistance. 0.70 is the initial support.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report for April seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

orto leave comments
More

Top bloggers

Blogger Posts / Likes

Top rated posts