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Kiwi to fall further in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Pullback #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #200 Day Sma #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - …
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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 4: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes after that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: New Zealand dollar spiked on better than expected inflation report (1.9% year-over-year) overnight but pared all gains in subsequent hours as RBNZ's own inflation measure showed just 1.4%. We are still waiting for Winston Peters to decide which coalition his party will join. Kiwi traders have been understandably cautious after 150-pip rally from the lows near 0.7050. 0.72 is the initial hurdle on the way to 0.73 - 0.7350 resistance area. 200 DMA near 0.7150 is the immediate support ahead of a stronger one near 0.71.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the Japanese yen.

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USD/CAD pullback to continue

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2925, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Reversal #Confluence #Uptrend #200 Day Sma #Strong Demand #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend.
Weekly chart
During the pullback in late April and early May, lower tails o…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Canadian dollar was among those major currencies that lost against the U.S. dollar in the past week. It lost half a cent while the weekly range was about a cent and a quarter wide. Needless to say, price action in the pair was mostly range bound. Volatility in the pair is contracting what may also be a sign that we are nearing usually less active December.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: There's nothing particularly of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Canada. U.S., however, will report several market moving data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair seems to be slowing while moving up towards cycle-high set in September. Although that may warn of a near term correction, quick fake break above the high is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 26 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie surged through 1.34 on Monday and traded up to 1.3435. High for the year, set in late September at 1.3457, held. The oil rebounded on Friday and has not posted a losing day since. If the commodity stays supported, the pair is unlikely to break to new highs. In that case, a retest of 50 and 100 DMA (1.3150 - 1.3200) seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, 1.34 level will need to be convincingly broken to make a push through the cycle-high feasible.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar lost about a quarter of a cent against the U.S. dollar and closed in the middle of the range. The pair's range was somewhat larger this week than in the previous one but overall price action was pretty much the same. Needless to say, the pair tracked oil prices which rose in the first three days of the week only to then give back most of the gains in the last two days.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Week ahead is big for Canadian currency too. GDP release will be followed by BOC meeting and labour market report. On top of that, U.S. will publish ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Attempt to break to new eleven-year highs early in the past week failed and the pair pulled back but based ahead of 1.3275. Higher lows during the best part of the month highlight the bullish bias.

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GBP/USD to remain well bid

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5725, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #200 Day Sma #Corrective Rally #Broadening Formation #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Manufacturing Production and BOE meeting from UK; PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be the fundamental highlights in the week ahead. June low (1.5170) is the immediate support before May low (1.5089) and 1.50 big figure level. Should the pair bounce, initial resistance may be found at 1.5250 - 1.5275 (Friday high) and then stronger at 1.5325 - 1.5350 (July low, 200 DMA).

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The theme of the week was the correction after nine-day decline in the previous two weeks. BOE held its second meeting in the new format and, despite recent worries and volatility in global markets, they weren't dovish and that lent the pair additional support as it retraced almost 50% of that downswing. Weekly range has been just over 300 pips and will likely stay that way, save for any fireworks in the US session.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Apart from eagerly awaited FOMC meeting, in which the Fed may begin to normalize their ultra easy monetary policy, there are three important risk events from the UK on the calendar for the next week: inflation, labour market and retail sales reports. 1.55 is the initial resistance before 1.5580 - 1.5600 (61.8% retracement, 00's) and 1.5675 - 1.5700 (76.4% retracement, 00's). 1.54 and then 1.5350 are the first two support levels.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 7: BOE speakers (Cunliffe, Carney), lending data, current account, GDP (final revision) and Manufacturing PMI will be the main fundamental events from the UK in the week ahead. The US will report CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. The pair broke September low (~1.5275) on Friday and, despite failure to close below it, that implies some further losses with the near term potential to 1.50.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Cable recorded nine consecutive days of losses in late August / early September. With eight losing days in a row, the pair is set to repeat the "feat". However, it has started the day pretty well and, unless US traders sell it below the day's opening price, that may mark a beginning of an upswing. Intraday support is seen between 1.5115 and 1.5135 (Previous Week Low, Low Of Day, Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1) and resistance at 1.5185 - 1.5205 (High Of Day, Daily Resistance 1, H1 100 SMA, 00's, Previous Day High).

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USD/CHF will gain in the near-term

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9625, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Parity #Snb Shocker #200 Day Sma #Bullish Technicals #Neutral Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarter…
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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: The pair ended the week near opening levels what may signal indecision in the market. Initial support is seen around 0.9350 and then between 0.9270 - 0.9300. If that gives way, a retest of May lows below 0.91 may ensue. On the upside, 50 and 100 DMA (currently just above 0.9450) are the first stronger levels of resistance, but the pair will need to convincingly break above 0.95 and 200 DMA to re-establish the bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: Even though the pair reversed half of post-NFP losses on Friday and proceeded with a strong decline on Monday, support at 0.9250 held twice before sending the pair back toward 0.94, to just below declining trendline (drawn off March, April and May highs) where it stalled and turned back lower. The pair ended the week slightly behind EUR/USD, but the weekly candle looks more convincing with regard to the trend continuation likehood.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Besides the Fed, the SNB is another central bank that will hold its meeting in the week ahead. No change from them is the most probable and widely expected outcome. The pair has been trading below 50, 100 and 200 DMA since the beginning of the month and, while it is holding below the averages (especially 200), the sellers appear to be in control. Trendline, drawn off March, April and May highs, will be the first level to watch on the upside.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 7: In the beginning of the week the pair mostly mirrored its cousin EUR/USD as it hasn't been able to break lower on Monday and then rocketed on Tuesday instead. The remaining three days were range-bound, but the range was wider and swings looked wilder. EUR/CHF flows were likely responsible for the part of this action as the Greek story and uncertainty was weighing on traders' decisions every day.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 8: There's nothing of note from Switzerland on the calendar for the week ahead. Saturday's Eurogroup Meeting and the rest of the weekend talks appear to be the single most important fundamental factor. Given that the pair usually closely follows the Euro, we may get huge gap open on Monday if we get a deal or if potential for Greek default rises. Especially in the latter case it will be interesting to see the reaction in the pair.

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