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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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FOMC meeting ahead

al_dcdemo Updated 29 July  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Fomc #Rate Statement #H1 Chart #Sideways Market
It's the FOMC day and, while they are not expected to hike at today's meeting, they might imply they will do that in September by providing positive comments on the outlook of jobs and inflation. Otherwise, the statement might be perceived as dovish and may move rate hike expectations towards December.
Yen put in a short term bottom at 123.00, few pips below Weekly Support 2 (123.05). Today's fall was contained by 50 DMA (123.36) and the pair is back above Previous Week Low (123.57). Yesterday's…
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