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Us Dollar Macro and Technical View

Daytrader21 Posted 4 May  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Volatility #Technical #Macro #Interest Rates #Fed #Us Dollar #Global Easing
The US Dollar has been on the spotlight since beginning of the year as momentum has surprised everyone. Retracements continue to be shallow. The dollar bullish trend is well mature on its own and I thought it's the perfect time to reinforce my view on the dollar as many are asking: what's next for the US Dollar?
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and the US Dollar was up on one point 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, e…
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Trader's Library: Quantitative Easing in 5 minutes

Nihad Posted 29 Mar.  in #Qe #Macro #Fed #Macroeconomics #Quantitative Easing #Easing
A hilariously funny video that explains not only QE, but most of the key-economic indicators and their inter-relationship.

Please note this video doesn't express my opinion and it should be regarded from an educational perspective only.
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Trader's Library: Gold vs. U.S Dollar in 5 minutes

Nihad Updated 29 Mar.  in #Dollar #Fundamentals #Macro #Gold #Gold Standard #Macroeconomics
This video generally highlights the relationship between precious metals and currencies. Specifically, the historical value of the dollar versus gold and the effect of the Gold Standard and Inflation.
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Nihad 29 Mar.

missanzhelika Milian Olga18375 You ladies, make me wonder how this community would be like without you. Thank you for being you

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Olga18375 29 Mar.

Dear Nihad)) Thank you for your good words!!

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Mariia 30 Mar.

Nihad I am going to cry)

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EURo In Past Bear Markets

1darkmatter1 Posted 24 Mar.  in #USD #EU #Euro #Macro #Us #Eurozone #Economics #Fed #Fxe #Uup
Summary
1) The past two major bear markets for the euro were significantly larger than the current one.
2) Currencies are prone to large overshoots.
3) The peak in monetary divergence is not known and even if it was, the incentive structure of interest rates favors a continued decline in the euro.
The first bear market is associated with the policy overshoot with Reagan's stimulative fiscal policy and Volcker's tight monetary policy.The euro's equivalent lost about 58% of its value.
The secon…
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driven 24 Mar.

Thanks for the great info Alok. I have a few questions:
1) You seem to be quoting from somewhere, what are your sources?
2) I take it that the key message is that you/they expect the Euro to drop to $0.80 - any timeline for this?
3) This seems almost entirely about the US side to this, surely economic activity and policies in Europe are at least as important?

Thanks again.

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar.

Hey Uri, thanks for going through the article!
1) I work for the largest stock pitching journal(yes US based), so me and my team compile a few macro articles along with stock recos. Here I only see technical analysis blogs and therefore I post our team's 1-2 macro articles/day for those interested.

2) you can see it as early as next week. I think we will see that drop before the next quarter.
3) Yes, at the moment..its general consensus that Eurozone is weak and the economic activity and policies are nothing that we dont know and are being discussed and debated for a long time (cont)

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar.

(cont.) and its feasibility has long factored in the currency.

Would like to hear your views on this. Thanks

driven avatar
driven 25 Mar.

1) Ok, that makes sense.
2) Wow $0.80 by next quarter (or even next week!) seems scary - as you say you think fundamentals are already priced in, you think this drop will be entirely due to market sentiment?
3) I get what you're saying, it just seems to me that if we see the Euro drop as precipitously as you suggest it will have to involve more than just the Fed's actions but rather something serious happening in Europe, either politically or economically.

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British EU Exit Could Hit GDP By 2.2%

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar.  in #EU #Europe #Britian #Gdp #Macro
Britain leaving the European Union could result in a permanent loss of 2.2 percent of the country's gross domestic product by 2030, and the costs would not be offset solely by striking a free trade deal with its former partners.
The prospect of Brexit - Britain breaking away from Brussels - has moved up the political agenda in tandem with a surge in support for anti-EU party UK Independence Party (UKIP) in recent years.
The Conservative Party, which has long contained a wing sceptical about the …
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Can Science Save Europe?

1darkmatter1 Posted 22 Mar.  in #Europe #Macro #Science
Europe’s current financial squeeze defies easy solutions. Self-inflicted austerity has met popular restlessness for more tangible measures to revive economic growth and create jobs. Protesters vividly express widespread frustration with deepening inequality, and condemnation of privileges of a global financial elite comes uncomfortably close to implicating government.
In previous times, such a situation would have been described as pre-revolutionary. In today’s world, the consequences may seem m…
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driven 22 Mar.

Sure, but I think sometimes a society (or in this case a closely-knitted set of societies) over time accumulates a cumbersome set of cultural norms, political beliefs and social structures. While other societies have been able to look to the future and do what they had to do, we are mired in all of our baggage. This is why America has been able to leapfrog us, and parts of Asia are in the process of doing so. (I know Asian societies are also old, but they have more or less been able to start over politically and culturally). I'm not saying we're doomed, just that we need to acknowledge this.

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar.

Yes I completely agree with you Uri. Europe definitely needs to acknowledge these problems from the ground level. However, on the bright side, Europe is far from doomed. Comparing Europe with US, in the US, there is a huge gap between the super rich/middle class and the unemployed and the US has more no. of unemployed/uneducated people than the most of Europe combined, which is brilliant. Asia & South America are catching up, but are still very far behind. How much ever people cry over austerity and national debt, getting rid of them or increasing them both benefit the rich majorly.

driven avatar
driven 22 Mar.

I see what you're saying Alok. There is definitely something to build on. Great article!

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar.

Thanks for the discussion Uri! the whole point is to get to know everyones views and learn as much as we can! Looking forward to more discussions in the near future

driven avatar
driven 22 Mar.

Same here.

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