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EURo In Past Bear Markets

1darkmatter1 Posted 24 Mar  in #USD #EU #Euro #Macro #Us #Eurozone #Economics #Fed #Fxe #Uup
Summary
1) The past two major bear markets for the euro were significantly larger than the current one.
2) Currencies are prone to large overshoots.
3) The peak in monetary divergence is not known and even if it was, the incentive structure of interest rates favors a continued decline in the euro.
The first bear market is associated with the policy overshoot with Reagan's stimulative fiscal policy and Volcker's tight monetary policy.The euro's equivalent lost about 58% of its value.
The secon…
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driven avatar
driven 24 Mar

Thanks for the great info Alok. I have a few questions:
1) You seem to be quoting from somewhere, what are your sources?
2) I take it that the key message is that you/they expect the Euro to drop to $0.80 - any timeline for this?
3) This seems almost entirely about the US side to this, surely economic activity and policies in Europe are at least as important?

Thanks again.

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar

Hey Uri, thanks for going through the article!
1) I work for the largest stock pitching journal(yes US based), so me and my team compile a few macro articles along with stock recos. Here I only see technical analysis blogs and therefore I post our team's 1-2 macro articles/day for those interested.

2) you can see it as early as next week. I think we will see that drop before the next quarter.
3) Yes, at the moment..its general consensus that Eurozone is weak and the economic activity and policies are nothing that we dont know and are being discussed and debated for a long time (cont)

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar

(cont.) and its feasibility has long factored in the currency.

Would like to hear your views on this. Thanks

driven avatar
driven 25 Mar

1) Ok, that makes sense.
2) Wow $0.80 by next quarter (or even next week!) seems scary - as you say you think fundamentals are already priced in, you think this drop will be entirely due to market sentiment?
3) I get what you're saying, it just seems to me that if we see the Euro drop as precipitously as you suggest it will have to involve more than just the Fed's actions but rather something serious happening in Europe, either politically or economically.

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British EU Exit Could Hit GDP By 2.2%

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar  in #EU #Europe #Britian #Gdp #Macro
Britain leaving the European Union could result in a permanent loss of 2.2 percent of the country's gross domestic product by 2030, and the costs would not be offset solely by striking a free trade deal with its former partners.
The prospect of Brexit - Britain breaking away from Brussels - has moved up the political agenda in tandem with a surge in support for anti-EU party UK Independence Party (UKIP) in recent years.
The Conservative Party, which has long contained a wing sceptical about the …
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Can Science Save Europe?

1darkmatter1 Posted 22 Mar  in #Europe #Macro #Science
Europe’s current financial squeeze defies easy solutions. Self-inflicted austerity has met popular restlessness for more tangible measures to revive economic growth and create jobs. Protesters vividly express widespread frustration with deepening inequality, and condemnation of privileges of a global financial elite comes uncomfortably close to implicating government.
In previous times, such a situation would have been described as pre-revolutionary. In today’s world, the consequences may seem m…
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driven avatar
driven 22 Mar

Sure, but I think sometimes a society (or in this case a closely-knitted set of societies) over time accumulates a cumbersome set of cultural norms, political beliefs and social structures. While other societies have been able to look to the future and do what they had to do, we are mired in all of our baggage. This is why America has been able to leapfrog us, and parts of Asia are in the process of doing so. (I know Asian societies are also old, but they have more or less been able to start over politically and culturally). I'm not saying we're doomed, just that we need to acknowledge this.

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar

Yes I completely agree with you Uri. Europe definitely needs to acknowledge these problems from the ground level. However, on the bright side, Europe is far from doomed. Comparing Europe with US, in the US, there is a huge gap between the super rich/middle class and the unemployed and the US has more no. of unemployed/uneducated people than the most of Europe combined, which is brilliant. Asia & South America are catching up, but are still very far behind. How much ever people cry over austerity and national debt, getting rid of them or increasing them both benefit the rich majorly.

driven avatar
driven 22 Mar

I see what you're saying Alok. There is definitely something to build on. Great article!

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar

Thanks for the discussion Uri! the whole point is to get to know everyones views and learn as much as we can! Looking forward to more discussions in the near future

driven avatar
driven 22 Mar

Same here.

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