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EURo In Past Bear Markets

1darkmatter1 Posted 24 Mar.  in #USD #EU #Euro #Macro #Us #Eurozone #Economics #Fed #Fxe #Uup
Summary
1) The past two major bear markets for the euro were significantly larger than the current one.
2) Currencies are prone to large overshoots.
3) The peak in monetary divergence is not known and even if it was, the incentive structure of interest rates favors a continued decline in the euro.
The first bear market is associated with the policy overshoot with Reagan's stimulative fiscal policy and Volcker's tight monetary policy.The euro's equivalent lost about 58% of its value.
The secon…
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4 Comments
driven avatar
driven 24 Mar.

Thanks for the great info Alok. I have a few questions:
1) You seem to be quoting from somewhere, what are your sources?
2) I take it that the key message is that you/they expect the Euro to drop to $0.80 - any timeline for this?
3) This seems almost entirely about the US side to this, surely economic activity and policies in Europe are at least as important?

Thanks again.

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar.

Hey Uri, thanks for going through the article!
1) I work for the largest stock pitching journal(yes US based), so me and my team compile a few macro articles along with stock recos. Here I only see technical analysis blogs and therefore I post our team's 1-2 macro articles/day for those interested.

2) you can see it as early as next week. I think we will see that drop before the next quarter.
3) Yes, at the moment..its general consensus that Eurozone is weak and the economic activity and policies are nothing that we dont know and are being discussed and debated for a long time (cont)

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1darkmatter1 25 Mar.

(cont.) and its feasibility has long factored in the currency.

Would like to hear your views on this. Thanks

driven avatar
driven 25 Mar.

1) Ok, that makes sense.
2) Wow $0.80 by next quarter (or even next week!) seems scary - as you say you think fundamentals are already priced in, you think this drop will be entirely due to market sentiment?
3) I get what you're saying, it just seems to me that if we see the Euro drop as precipitously as you suggest it will have to involve more than just the Fed's actions but rather something serious happening in Europe, either politically or economically.

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RISE AND SHINE

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar.  in #Motivational
Rise and shine.

6am and your hand can't make it to the alarm clock before the voices in your head start telling you that it's too early, too dark, and too cold to get out of a bed.
Aching muscles lie still in rebellion, pretending not to hear your brain commanding them to move.
A legion of voices are shouting their unanimous permission for you to hit the snooze button and go back to dreamland, but you didn't ask their opinion.
The voice you've chosen to listen to is one of defiance.
A voic…
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British EU Exit Could Hit GDP By 2.2%

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar.  in #EU #Europe #Britian #Gdp #Macro
Britain leaving the European Union could result in a permanent loss of 2.2 percent of the country's gross domestic product by 2030, and the costs would not be offset solely by striking a free trade deal with its former partners.
The prospect of Brexit - Britain breaking away from Brussels - has moved up the political agenda in tandem with a surge in support for anti-EU party UK Independence Party (UKIP) in recent years.
The Conservative Party, which has long contained a wing sceptical about the …
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Don't Get Too Greedy_Dollar Falls Foul Of Fed Rhetoric

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar.
Greed is not good! Now that the market has run up and the Fed meeting is over, it is time to book profits. Though I am bullish on the markets, it can have speed bumps and you don't want to be caught with no profits at all. So it's time to book some profits and sit on some cash to take advantage of the speed bumps. I am clarifying that I am in no way bearish, but instead want investors to be ready with cash for upcoming buying opportunities.
Summary[list][/list]…
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EURope opens lower with eyes on Greece

1darkmatter1 Posted 23 Mar.  in #EU #Euro #Europe #Eurozone #Greece #Germany
European equities opened lower on Monday as investors watch a meeting between the leaders of Greece and Germany, beginning a week that may prove decisive for Greece's future in the euro zone.
At last week's EU Summit, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras agreed to speed up his economic reform plans in order to unlock the long-withheld aid payments needed to keep his country afloat.
If a deal is not reached, Greece is likely to run out of cash by early next month.
The euro is -0.4% at $1.0776.
European stocks…
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Can Science Save Europe?

1darkmatter1 Posted 22 Mar.  in #Europe #Macro #Science
Europe’s current financial squeeze defies easy solutions. Self-inflicted austerity has met popular restlessness for more tangible measures to revive economic growth and create jobs. Protesters vividly express widespread frustration with deepening inequality, and condemnation of privileges of a global financial elite comes uncomfortably close to implicating government.
In previous times, such a situation would have been described as pre-revolutionary. In today’s world, the consequences may seem m…
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driven avatar
driven 22 Mar.

Sure, but I think sometimes a society (or in this case a closely-knitted set of societies) over time accumulates a cumbersome set of cultural norms, political beliefs and social structures. While other societies have been able to look to the future and do what they had to do, we are mired in all of our baggage. This is why America has been able to leapfrog us, and parts of Asia are in the process of doing so. (I know Asian societies are also old, but they have more or less been able to start over politically and culturally). I'm not saying we're doomed, just that we need to acknowledge this.

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar.

Yes I completely agree with you Uri. Europe definitely needs to acknowledge these problems from the ground level. However, on the bright side, Europe is far from doomed. Comparing Europe with US, in the US, there is a huge gap between the super rich/middle class and the unemployed and the US has more no. of unemployed/uneducated people than the most of Europe combined, which is brilliant. Asia & South America are catching up, but are still very far behind. How much ever people cry over austerity and national debt, getting rid of them or increasing them both benefit the rich majorly.

driven avatar
driven 22 Mar.

I see what you're saying Alok. There is definitely something to build on. Great article!

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar.

Thanks for the discussion Uri! the whole point is to get to know everyones views and learn as much as we can! Looking forward to more discussions in the near future

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driven 22 Mar.

Same here.

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Best ALTER BRIDGE Songs

1darkmatter1 Posted 22 Mar.
Hey Guys,
Today I am posting a very special blog where I list out the songs of my favourite band: ALTER BRIDGE.
Their songs are sooo beautiful and are so meaningful and it kills my heart to see that they are so underrated.
Therefore, I would like to share some of their songs which are near and dear to me. Please rate them and also list your favourites
You guys will know the last song if you watch WWE(egde )
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
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7)
8)
9)
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Russia Forex Reserves: Down Another Week

1darkmatter1 Updated 22 Mar.  in #USD #Forex #Russia #Ruble #Central Bank #Cbr
Based on weekly data for the week of March 13, 2015, Russian Central Bank forex reserves fell to USD351.7 billion, down USD5 billion on previous week. The reserves are now down 28.7% (USD141.5 billion) y/y. Compared to the same week a month ago, the reserves are down 4.5% (USD16.6 billion).
The rate of weekly changes in reserves (USD5 billion) is slower than in the week of March 6th (USD6.3 billion) but well ahead the 3mo average weekly decline (USD4.61 billion) and 6mo average (USD3.57 billion…
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2 Comments
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driven 22 Mar.

I like your handle :) What do think the longer-term outlook is here?

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1darkmatter1 22 Mar.

Thanks driven! what time frame are you looking at? In 2016, the Russian Ruble is expected to increase to 60.00 . In the long-term, the Russian Ruble is projected to trend around 50.00, 34.81 and 38.33 in the years of 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using analysts expectations.

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FOMC: Connecting the Dots

1darkmatter1 Posted 21 Mar.  in #Dollar #Economy #Us #Macroview #Fomc
Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets
[list=1][/list]…
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Unconventional Tips for Tilt Control

1darkmatter1 Posted 5 Mar.  in #Trading #Strategy #Technical #Trader #Poker
Let us start by defining what is Tilt.
Tilt is a poker or Trading term for a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player/trader adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive.
My friends have always expressed surprise at my typical remark when they tell me a bad-beat/ losing day story:
“No one cares,” I say. “More importantly, I don’t care, so don’t tell me a bad beat story again.”
I don’t do this to be callous. If I go …
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