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タグ・フィルター:  Monetary Policy Divergence
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EUR/USD sells off after ECB decision

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2018年06月15日  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #EUR/USD #Fed #D1 Chart #Monetary Policy Divergence
It seems as if the dollar move higher after more hawkish than expected Fed came with one day lag. ECB may have done more steps in the hawkish direction than expected by many yesterday, but their pledge to hold rates at present level at least until summer 2019 contrasts starkly with Fed's projected one hike per quarter. EUR/USD is down 300 pips from yesterday's high.
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USD/CHF to test 200 week SMA before bouncing

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年12月04日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9825, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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al_dcdemo 2017年12月24日

UPDATE 6: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月27日

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月30日

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 2018年01月10日

UPDATE 9: USD/CHF broke above the pivotal 0.98 level, after spending one week below it. Position in the futures market is net short, but not at extreme levels, so there might still be some upside potential. Trendline, drawn off of October and December highs, is the area to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 2018年01月25日

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar extended losses yesterday after treasury secretary Mnuchin told World Economic Forum that a weak dollar is good for trade. USD/CHF fell below 2014 - 2017 support line and stalled at the strong support area 0.94 - 0.945. A successful break would bring 0.90 - 0.91 into focus.

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USD/CHF to test below 0.98 in December

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9775, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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al_dcdemo 2017年12月15日

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have grown surprisingly quiet this year.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月23日

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月24日

UPDATE 7: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月27日

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月30日

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Swissie headed towards parity again

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年10月23日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9875, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Parity Level
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair then broke below 200 week SMA and p…
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al_dcdemo 2017年11月17日

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 2017年11月22日

UPDATE 7: USD/CHF started the week on a strong note but then gave back all the gains and is currently holding onto 0.9875 - 0.99 support area. A break below it would probably mean another shot at 0.98 - 0.985. Watch out for SNB Jordan's speech tomorrow. I wonder what would happen if he somehow forgets to mention that the franc is "still overvalued".

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al_dcdemo 2017年11月23日

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think the inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 2017年11月29日

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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al_dcdemo 2017年12月01日

UPDATE 10: As opposed to USD/JPY, USD/CHF hasn't been able to recover from yesterday's fall. With EUR/CHF near the new cycle-high, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Swissie decided to mirror EUR/USD rather than follow risk sentiment. 0.98 is about to get retested.

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0.95 - 0.98 range to contain Swissie in October

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年09月24日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9625, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 2017年10月11日

UPDATE 4: U.S. dollar has been a laggard so far this week while euro gained some traction after it reclaimed 1.175. That's a recipe for Swiss franc gains while Catalan and North Korea crises still simmer in the background. USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月12日

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月13日

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月21日

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月27日

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar yen.

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USD/CHF to remain range-bound for now

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年08月25日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9725, 予想日: 2日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Fake Breakdown
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 2017年09月16日

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 2017年09月20日

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 2017年09月27日

UPDATE 9: There appears to have been some progress on the U.S. tax reform but it is all words so far. Trump hasn't managed to repeal and replace Obamacare but maybe he could gather sufficient support for lowering some taxes. USD/CHF made another attempt at the strong resistance area at 0.975 - 0.98 this afternoon but pulled back sharply. That area is backed by descending 2016 - 2017 trendline and 200 DMA. 0.97 is the initial support and then 0.965.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月01日

UPDATE 10: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 2017年10月02日

UPDATE 11: The pair opened around Friday's closing levels and headed higher first thing in the morning but the rally stalled right around my prediction target of 0.9725 before pulling back. Range trading is the name of the game still and any serious attempt at 0.9750 - 0.98 resistance area will probably require cooperation from EUR/USD bears. All in all, I didn't get the price path quite right in this forecast period but, if I exclude those two spikes below 0.95, I was fairly close. The pair was trading some 20 pips off my target at the end of the period.

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USD/CHF to continue to drift lower

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年07月25日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9425, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Breakdown #Downtrend #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 2017年08月19日

UPDATE 6: The week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That should increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 2017年08月24日

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 2017年08月26日

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 2017年08月31日

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong Q2 GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 2017年09月01日

UPDATE 10: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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USD/CHF to recover in July

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年06月20日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9825, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Flag Like Formation
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 2017年07月15日

UPDATE 5: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Exciting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 2017年07月23日

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.145 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.745, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 2017年07月24日

UPDATE 7: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

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al_dcdemo 2017年07月27日

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't reveal anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 2017年07月31日

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but probably not for too long.

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Swissie could snap back to parity level

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年05月23日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9925, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Flag Like Formation
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 2017年06月10日

UPDATE 5: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The world's reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against the yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

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al_dcdemo 2017年06月14日

UPDATE 6: Swiss franc is one of the best performing major currencies this year. Euro strength and U.S. dollar weakness are both supporting this. SNB meets tomorrow and no change is expected from them for at least as long as ECB keeps rates on the floor. USD/CHF encountered some demand ahead of 0.96 before pulling from the lows. If that goes, 0.95 area looks stronger and might be backed by SNB. 0.97 - 0.975 is the initial resistance. 0.98 - 0.985 is another one.

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al_dcdemo 2017年06月15日

UPDATE 7: Fed's FOMC was unexpectedly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as anticipated, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 2017年06月21日

UPDATE 8: After trading to as low as 0.96 in the beginning of May, USD/CHF has been slowly but steadily recouping losses. At the last week's meeting, SNB reiterated their mantras that the Franc is overvalued and that they will continue with ultra-easy monetary policy. That shall keep the pair supported as long as EUR/USD is in correction mode. 0.98 - 0.9825 (March low, 2011 - 2016 trendline, 50 DMA) is the next target. 0.97 - 0.9725 is likely to see some stronger demand come in.

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al_dcdemo 2017年06月24日

UPDATE 9: The currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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Swissie may not leave the parity level just yet

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2017年04月25日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9975, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Falling Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 2017年05月14日

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月15日

UPDATE 6: USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern. The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first hurdle to overcome before 1.01.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月21日

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月25日

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月29日

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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