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Yen may break below 100 in October

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 98.75, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Bearish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place in September showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset buying. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. The U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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USD/JPY to remain offered

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 98.75, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to l…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in all G7 major currency pairs. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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USD/JPY to remain under pressure

al_dcdemo Posted 29 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 101.25, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All in all, this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about further room for monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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USD/JPY to recover before further downside

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 100.25, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after Britons voted to …
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al_dcdemo 11 July

UPDATE 5: June's NFP report showed that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted an all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

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al_dcdemo 21 July

UPDATE 6: Having broken 50 DMA two days ago, USD/JPY extended its advance past Brexit day high (106.80) and the downtrendline, drawn off of January 2015 and May 2016 highs. The pair has traded to as high as 107.50 in the Asian session. That looks like a logical place to take some profits ahead of the BOJ meeting next week, so some consolidation would not be that surprising. 100 DMA (108.30) is the first stronger resistance and 50 DMA (106.10) support.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 7: USD/JPY continues to be volatile. The pair has been moving on stimulus package size rumours recently. After falling nearly 300 pips from Monday high to Tuesday low it retested Monday high earlier today before pulling back again. The BOJ concludes their two day meeting on Friday when they'll be announcing the eagerly awaited decision. Depending on if, what and how much they'll do, the decision has the potential to move the pair a couple of hundred of pips in either direction.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be a minuscule one, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP reading. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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USD/JPY to remain near current levels throughout June

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 109.25, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #38 2 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Sharp Fall #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone which was holding it since late 2014. The decline has seen 100 week SMA, 2013 - 2014 trendli…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: There was little follow through after the sharp fall on NFP report earlier in the month but USD/JPY did make a new low and has continued to look heavy amid recent flight to safety. Having said that, lower tails on daily candles suggest a decent buying interest. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for today's evening and the BOJ's for tomorrow morning, the pair will likely remain range-bound today. Area between 105 and 106 (includes June and May lows and 200 WMA) shall protect the downside while 107 - 108 shall take care of the upticks.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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