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Another Head & Shoulders Pattern for NZD

Jignesh Posted 26 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #NZD #Head And Shoulders Pattern
At the start of the week, the NZDUSD and NZDJPY both had H&S pattern's in play. Well once again the pattern comes into play on both pairs, yet this time around it is an inverse H&S pattern.
So far we've seen a bit of rejection at the neckline, the pattern won't come into play until the neckline breaks. Worth keeping an eye on.
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NZDJPY Wedge Breakout

Jignesh Posted 19 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #JPY #NZD #Wedge #Breakout
The NZDJPY has been consolidating in a large descending wedge pattern on the 4H/ Daily charts.
We now have a clear upside break out of the pattern. Chart illustrates the wedge below.
If we get a retouch for a good area to go long remains to be seen, but for now, this could lead to a longer term trend for the pair.
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End of Week Currency Fundamental Summary

Jignesh Posted 7 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #GBP #NZD #USD #Fundamentals
The past week was filled with Fundamental data releases. Here is a summary which may assist in finding trading opportunities in the week to come.
NZD - The early week employment release for New Zealand saw the pair miss in data yet once again. It is quite clear that the labor sector is struggling. We have already seen a larger reversal in several NZD pairs a few weeks back after some temporary strength. At the moment, the single currency may be considered oversold, but any rallies can be expecte…
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Beaten up Kiwi takes a strong Rebound

Jignesh Posted 5 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #NZD #Fundamentals #Nzdusd #Kiwi #Employment #Nzdjpy #Labor Market
The Kiwi has taken a beating this week as fundamentals have not been in favor of the currency. It started with a bad Dairy number, and then continued with a big miss in Employment change.
Although the Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 6.0%, It was still a drop from previous reading at 5.9, in fact, New Zealand has been posting steady declines in Unemployment since last year this time.
To top that off, the USD has been strong, which has been putting pressure on all the majors. Today, the K…
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Revisiting the Kiwi chart from the last RBNZ Meeting

Jignesh Posted 7 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #NZD #Nzdusd #Rbnz
This week Wednesday, we will once again see a rate cut from the RBNZ.
The rate cut does not necessarily mean a bearish NZD. Below is a 15Min chart from the last meeting in July. The reaction from the meeting has been highlighted in the box.
As you can see, it was an immediate bullish reaction.
The important part of the meeting was not the cut it self, rather it was the statement released at the same time. The reason for this is, the cut was largely expected, and thus already priced in. The state…
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Up Next - NZD Rate Decision

Jignesh Posted 29 Apr.  in #NZD #Monetary Policy #Kiwi #Rbnz
On the docket today is a rate decision from the RBNZ. According to the NZ Herald, Top economist believe rates will be unchanged (by 62% of those paneled) while 32% say that a cut may be seen.
One of the key deciding factors which supports a case for a cut, is the current low inflation rate. Unlike the Fed, the RBNZ does not view the underlining reasoning as transitory. A word which has resurfaced once again in today's FED statement.
Another key factor, is the Kiwi appreciating as of late. With p…
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Jignesh 30 Apr.

Although the RBNZ did not surprise the market with a rate cut, the statement indicated a strong view of cutting rates in the future which has caused a sell off in the Kiwi across the board.  The Currency fell between 100 - 300 pips in various pairs.

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Playing the Channel on EURNZD

Jignesh Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/NZD, Target: 1.5806, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #NZD #Fibonacci #Channel #Downtrend #EUR/NZD #Candlesticks #Moving Average
Overview
The EURNZD is in a channel on the Daily chart. So far it has shown clear rejection from the upper channel line after briefly spiking to the weekly 200MA.
The pair is trending down after peaking in late August of 2013. After posting an engulfing candle against the daily channel, the expectation is for the downtrend to continue at this point.
Levels
1.6462 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
1.6340 - Daily Close Sept 28 (Close below trendline after spike)
1.5806 - Daily 61.8% retracement of …
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Jignesh 9 Oct.

The pair faced a rejection of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down just prior to the FOMC minutes today.  It may be too early to tell, but so far the weekly candle stick pattern is shaping up to be in favour of a bigger leg to the downside

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Jignesh 13 Oct.

First level of resistance comes at 1.6192 which marks last week's open.  With the second level of resistance coming in at 1.6226 (weekly fib level).  A spike high this week is a certain possibility but the focus is on a lower weekly close, preferable taking out support at last week's low at 1.6030

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Jignesh 24 Oct.

While moving the targets, the pair made a rapid reversal on a slew of data both negative for the NZD and positive for the EUR.  1.6200 is upside resistance,  A close below 1.6140 (weekly trendline)  will be required to maintain downside pressure.

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Jignesh 27 Oct.

The reversal correction is starting to show that it has completed and the downtrend may have resumed.  The biggest risk event for the pair this week will be the RBNZ statement.  It is well known that the central bank wants to see the kiwi lower and will most likely attempt to jawbone the currency at the event on Wednesday. 

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Jignesh 31 Oct.

The FOMC and RBNZ on Wednesday played Havoc on the pair, but not only has it managed to retrace the gains within a short period of time, it has not broken to new lows taking out support at 1.6015. 
With the ATR of this pair, it has good potential to reach targets.  Event risk for the EUR coming shortly with CPI estimates expected to have high impact.

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