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Commodity Currencies seen Strengthening against the Greenback

Jignesh Posted 4 July  in #Trader's blog #Audusd #Nzdusd #Usdcad
The Dollar Index was under pressure today, dropping to 95.50. Among the Majors, the commodity currencies were seen gaining the most against the greenback.
Among the Commodity instruments, Silver was seen continuing its bullish momentum. The instrument reached a high of $21.09 before pulling back. Silver was last seen at $20.04 for a gain of 1.6%. Gold has continued to diverge from Silver, and gains seen in the yellow metal were limited to 0.73%.
Oil prices were seen declining, WTI was last seen …
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VictoriaVika 16 Nov.

Good :)

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Brexit Volatility Seen Subsiding in the Prior Week

Jignesh Posted 3 July  in #Trader's blog #GBP #Volatility #Brexit
The June 23 referendum had given markets something to talk about for months leading up to the event. Some bold predictions were made ahead of the event, essentially calling for a collapse of the British Pound in the event the exit materialized.
The weekly open last week, saw a continuation of risk sentiment and volatility, but dissipated quickly. The commodity currencies have already fallen back into normal ranges, The EUR/USD volatility is near pre-Brexit levels, while the GBP/USD remain…
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Silver Posts Largest Weekly Jump This Year

Jignesh Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #Silver

Silver has closed the week out at 19.72 for an impressive gain of 5.55% on the day, and to post the largest weekly gain on the year thus far, and likely to be the largest weekly gain over the last 2-3 years.
Resistance in the metal was seen at 18.19 reflecting a spike low from June 2013, as well as the highest weekly close in January 2015. The instrument was rejected from the level in the prior week, but managed to close well above it this week.
A divergence was seen among the metals, as Gold c…
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RBA Surprises Markets and Cuts Rates

Jignesh Posted 3 May  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Rba
The RBA today cut rates to 1.75%
The forecast for today was at 2.00%, though some economists did project this could occur at the meeting today.
The concerns of the bank, remain with the current exchange rate. Perhaps realizing the USD is under pressure, taking some preemptive measures to control the exchange rate to prevent it from getting too bullish.
Commodity prices have been rising, which helps Australia, though perhaps a bit too early to tell. The Employment market in the past showed some u…
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Trendlines - Two sides of the story

Jignesh Posted 1 May  in #Trader's blog #Trendline #Gbpcad
Trader's use all sort of different technical tools in their analysis. One of my favorites is Trendlines.
They can be very useful in determining entry points in a continuation of a trend, and at the same time, a great indicator for breakouts, reversals, and longer term pullbacks. Depending on which TF they are used, often longer term reversals can be spotted early.
However, this tool falls into the category of one that is subjective. A TL can be drawn different ways, and often subconsciously we d…
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A pull back in a longer downtrend for JPN.IDX

Jignesh Posted 20 Apr. as Analysis on JPN.IDX/JPY, Target: 18010, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Japan #Equities #Channel #Retracement #Pullback #Elliottwave #Jpn IDX/JPY
The JPN.IDX is in a longer term down trend, that started in the first week of August 2015. However, the instrument caught a bid at it's 200 Weekly SMA. As well, smaller time frames suggest a bullish correction is already under way, which has potential to last throughout the Month of May.
Levels
15794 - Jan Spike Low
16340 - Jan lowest Daily close & early Feb Daily spike highs
17290 - March Highs
17871 - Jan Highs
18260 - End of 2015 Daily close
The chart below is a monthly chart showing the leve…
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Jignesh 5 May

Ahead of the start of May, we already saw the pull back in the bullish trend.  The BOJ, which had given a signal to the market that it would likely intervene in the markets, in a surprise move, did not do anything.  It acted as a catalyst for a sell off against the proposed bullish trend.  As we approach the bottom of the channel, we will be looking for a bounce over the next week, to hold the channel intact and affirm the bullish trend.

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GBPUSD - Once again

Jignesh Posted 20 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Gbpusd
Having posted about twice already in the past few days, this will be my last GBPUSD Blog post (maybe!)
In my previous posts, I was bearish, however, did not take the short position. As the pair traded higher, I adjusted trendlines and fib levels, to make it fit a bearish scenario.
Why exactly? My wave analysis shows the up move is completed. Though it is possible that the pair is setting up for a second leg higher, I don't see it as a likely scenario with 2 months away from the Brexit referendum…
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Revisiting the GBPUSD Chart

Jignesh Posted 19 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Gbpusd
A few days ago, I posted a bearish perspective on GBPUSD.
Yesterdays price action was quite strong to the upside. The pair easily took out several levels of resistance, and is in break out mode.
Nevertheless, I'm stubbornly unconvinced of a long term bullish trend in the pair.
The primary reason behind my analysis lies behind the elliott wave structure of the move down. Nevertheless, I've redrawn the channel by connecting the bottoms, and once again we are near the top of the channel.
Though, th…
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The Kiwi Dollar Break

Jignesh Posted 18 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nzdusd
The NZD has been lagging for the most part in the leg of USD weakness we have seen for over the past month, but perhaps today it has finally made that break that will have the bears on the sidelines.
The above chart is a daily of the NZDUSD, and as can be clearly seen, we've taken out some major resistance levels and broken higher.
What makes todays price action look even more bullish, is that the pair is holding the highs so far.
Earlier this month, the pair did break to these levels, only to f…
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OneGoodTrade 19 Apr.

Thank you for your kind words. I have to congratulate you too for your confidence in USDCAD trade shorting it around 1.45 area while almost everyone was bullish.

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GBPUSD Channel Break confirms Bearish turn

Jignesh Posted 17 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Technicals #Gbpusd
The GBPUSD showed good upside in the month of March, however April has once again shown signs of bearishness.
The 4H Chart below provides an outlook
On the chart we see a clear break of the up channel. We are now potentially forming a down channel with two failures at new highs which make for a succession of lower highs.
Support at 1.4050 continues to offer value buying to bulls as the pair is supported on the monthly charts, as well as a monthly bullish engulfing candle in the month of March.
T…
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