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Cable to continue steady rise as the year turns

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3725, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Neutral Boe
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 11: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD topped out near 1.3610 just before E.U. session commenced. Two weaker than expected PMIs in a row didn't help the pair, which snapped back to 1.35. Possibly also some profit taking ahead of FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 13: GBP/USD surged 200 pips on Friday, closing the week on the highest level since Brexit vote. General U.S. dollar weakness and Spain and Netherlands supporting softer terms for actual Brexit were the main drivers. 1.3835 and 1.40 are the next targets. CPI and Retail Sales reports next week are the key U.K. data releases to watch in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 14: U.K. CPI inflation report for December came in solid. Headline was as expected, core missed by a tick, while retail surprised to the upside. GBP/USD was not impressed and spiked about 20 pips to the downside. Sellers have been active since yesterday, but if 1.3740 - 1.3750 area holds, bulls might get one more shot at 1.3835.

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al_dcdemo 24 Jan.

UPDATE 15: GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.K. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.

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Cable could fall some more in the near term

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2775, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe #Bottoming Area
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Sep.

UPDATE 6: A hawkish hold by the BOE yesterday took many by surprise. Interest rates and voting pattern were left unchanged, as expected, but the minutes revealed that the majority of MPC saw as likely some withdrawal of monetary stimulus over the coming months, provided that economy continues on its current path. Having been already in a firm uptrend, GBP/USD took the decision in a stride. It gained almost two cents on the day and so far added a good cent this morning. The pair is currently trading at the highest level since the Brexit vote.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in treasury bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 4 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Markets have been relatively sedate so far this week, at least major currency pairs. There was some movement in GBP/USD, which has continued its correction lower. Mostly weaker U.K. PMI readings and ever-present Brexit shenanigans haven't helped Cable. Technically, the pair broke back below 2016 - 2017 resistance line and August high. 50.0% retracement of the August - September rally is holding for now. Area between 50 DMA and 61.8% retracement is the next downside target. On the upside, 1.3325 - 1.3350 is where sellers may step in.

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Cable to remain well bid in August

al_dcdemo Posted 27 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3225, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 19 Aug.

UPDATE 6: The week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That will increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of this week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what the ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong Q2 GDP figure. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Cable may continue to drift lower for some time

al_dcdemo Posted 22 June as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2575, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 15 July

UPDATE 5: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It all started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Exciting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.1450 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.7450, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 7: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist may come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't divulge anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but most likely not for too long.

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Cable to remain in 1.25 - 1.30 range for now

al_dcdemo Posted 27 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2725, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe #Medium Term Bottom
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history. A flash crash in October 2016 briefly sent it below 1.2…
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The No.1 reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against the yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 7: The FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 23 June

UPDATE 8: Cable had a pretty volatile week. It started with an outside down day on Monday. On Tuesday the pair fell more than a cent, after Carney uttered his "now is not time to raise rates". Then on Wednesday it snapped back after BOE dove Haldane revealed that he nearly voted for a hike. Thursday was a sideways (accumulation?) day and the pair extended gains today, touching 1.274 shortly after London open. 1.265 - 1.27 should attract some buyers if this rally is to continue. 1.275 - 1.28 is where sellers may be lurking.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 10: Cable jumped a cent yesterday after BOE governor Mark Carney's commented that "some removal of stimulus likely to be needed as spare capacity erodes". There was some follow through overnight. U.S. dollar weakness across the board helps to sustain those gains. The pair is trading just below 1.30 big figure level which is the initial target ahead of May high near 1.3050. A break above that is not all that unlikely in the days ahead. 1.29 - 1.2925 should hold if this rally still has some legs.

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Cable to see some further upside

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Flash Crash #Neutral Boe
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history. A flash crash in October 2016 briefly sent it below 1.2…
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al_dcdemo 12 May

UPDATE 5: BOE QIR didn't bring anything new. The market was perhaps a bit disappointed that Kristin Forbes remains the only hawk on the MPC, and she is leaving. The bank is optimistic on the Brexit process but prepared to adjust policy both ways. Cable fell 50 pips on the release and another 30 during the press conference but 1.2830 - 1.2850 has so far held. If that goes, 1.2750 - 1.28 is where some demand may come in. 1.29 is the initial resistance before 1.2950 - 1.30 band.

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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 6: Widely expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, the dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It's Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was better for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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Cable to recover in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Mar. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2875, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Article 50 #Brexit Vote #Neutral Boe
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that Cable carved out during the past three years was pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's hist…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected data from China, released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Some pairs traded as if there were no holiday yesterday. GBP/JPY buying was perhaps the most notable. After the break below 136.45 last week, the pair was bought up 137.15 as risk sentiment improved, leaving a reversal candle on the daily chart. That helped to buoy GBP/USD which rose 75 pips to above last week's high but was unable to breach pre-Article-50 high (1.2615) which is now reinforced by 200 DMA. 1.27 - 1.28 area is the next target if only 1.24 - 1.25 holds as a support.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.K. PM May called a snap election yesterday and the pound rallied in response. Even though this means more uncertainty in the short term, it is expected to give the government a confidence vote and enough time to focus on Brexit negotiations and implementation. Cable posted a huge candle on the daily chart. Some consolidation or correction is possible in the days ahead. December high (1.2775) could be the first stronger support. If the rally continues, 1.30 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report for April seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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Cable may challenge the downtrend in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2625, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Demand #Net Short Positioning #Brexit Vote #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that Cable carved out during the past three years was pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's hist…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar extended its gains this week in most major currency pairs as a rate hike by Fed and a potentially steeper tightening path is getting discounted. One exception was the euro which gained on the back of constructive tones from ECB and less chances of Le Pen victory in French election. Next week's calendar features three central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, SNB), U.S. inflation, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP. If FOMC fails to hike on Wednesday, the dollar would sell-off hard. To avoid disturbance, a hike is almost a certainty. "Sell the fact" reaction possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 7: As widely expected, FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 8: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 10: The correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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Cable to remain well bid in February

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Jan. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2625, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Demand #Net Short Positioning #Brexit Vote #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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The declining wedge that the Cable carved out during the past three years was pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's…
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al_dcdemo 11 Feb.

UPDATE 6: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two rate hikes by the Fed this year.

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al_dcdemo 17 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Cable is still pretty much disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade as it consolidates near 1.25. Lower highs and higher lows are evident and the breakout, to either direction, will be the stronger the more time will elapse by then. Depending on how you draw the trendlines, the support comes in near 1.24 and the resistance near 1.2525. I'd say a break to the upside is more likely but 1.26 or 1.265 could prove to be a near-term cap. In any case, 1.25 continues to serve as a good bull/bear line in sand.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is rising and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is the Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. GBP/USD staged a fake upside break and then a fake downside break of the triangle on D1. The pattern may resolve to the downside.

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Cable to start 2017 in sideways mode

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2425, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Flash Crash #Brexit Vote #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. The U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed members. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar generally moved lower against major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as the U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session trading.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about half a cent but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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