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NZD/USD Bearish Flag (part 2)

This is a continuation post from 2 months ago forecast which has not yet reached the final target projected of the bearish flag formation posted on the weekly chart. NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbin…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: Due to the high volatility environment we have now retested the big resistance level of 0.7500. The seasonality pattern is working well so far as we should have expected some kind of traction and upside momentum for kiwi this month but by the end of the month we should see this pair trading lower.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: This corrective move is already showing signs of exhaustion as on the weekly chart we have a bearish PB which is a reversal pattern. Once we manage to break and close below 0.7500 big round number we should expect the down trend to resume. Next week resistance should be at 0.7600 round number and left eye of the PB

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NZD/USD Bearish Flag

NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbing all the bids. Usually you measure the length of previous sell off and project that move to the downside in order to find the next leg target.
If we project the prev…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: As expected the bearish flag broke to the downside and momentum is accelerating taking us below 0.7500 big round number. But I'm not expecting this move to be smooth and there is plenty of support all the way down to 0.7400 and 0.7300 where we can see a re-bounce back towards the big round number 0.7500

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: As expected the bearish flag has been working perfectly, however it seems I've been wrong on the speed of the move. Once we broke that pattern the momentum has started picking up to the downside and we broke key support and big round number 0.7500 which was also my target. Based on Elliot Wave we may see kiwi retracing all the way up and retesting the 0.7600 level which is the breakout candle of the bearish flag.

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Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update we indeed continued to retrace further up. The wave sequence from 0.7170 low suggest we should see another marginal high at 1.7580 before to continue down again and complete a WXY type of retracement.

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Update 4: As expected we indeed had a new marginal high at 0.7580 and we had a strong rejection. For Monday we should expect the Friday's high to provide a great resistance zone and we can see kiwi resuming it's down trend. There is plenty of time to reach our target in the first hours of the new session.

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Update 5: We're now at support 0.7515 level(see Figure attached) right ahead of the big round number 0.7500 which should provide good support zone for the entire day, as I'm not expecting any breakout during today. Also to the upside we have another minor resistance level of 0.7540 which should not be broken. Usually kiwi only starts breaking either direction only after the New York session comes in, until that happens we should expect further consolidation. 

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Metals Outlook. Silver Leading The Way Down

If last week was all about the FX move, this week the metals are going to be on the front page. With silver breaking key support level at $18.20 this marks the stage for further downside movements. Silver was developing and completed an descending triangle over the last 1.2 years. I've been speaking about this developments in the silver market more than 5 months ago, making the case for a break lower, you can find that post in my history blog post.
Figure 1. Silver Weekly Chart

Sin…
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Metal_Mind avatar

your ability to analyse & your writer skills are top notch...as always.

Daytrader21 avatar

Metal_Mind yoooo bro, thanks:)

JuliaBF avatar
JuliaBF 23 Wrz

good article)))) well done!

Olga18375 avatar

Thank you!! Useful information for me and traders))!

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EUR/CAD - Bearish within fan lines !


  • Charts: 4Hours, 1 Day.
  • Indicators: Fibonacci Fan Lines,Fibonacci Retracements.
  • Prepared with : JForex 4.
  • Current Level : 1.4455
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USD/CAD Resuming the Uptrend (part 2)

Last year I've posted my prediction in the Technical Analysis contest about USD/CAD, and at that time I said that USD/CAD is on the verge for a big upside movement. You can check out my prediction here USD/Cad Resuming the Uptred
Nothing much has happen since than except the fact that now we have broke from previous multi year trading range above 1.0800 see Figure 1 red upper resistance line. It can bee seen that we have been moving in an 1400 pip range for the course of the last years and i…
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Update 1: Last week we have made a big reversal and as expected wave IV completed an ABC correction, the reaction from 1.0950 is an impulsive reaction which suggest that for now momentum should start picking up speed next week we need a weekly close above 1.1000 big round number

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Update 2: The rally from 1.0955 towards the 1.1150 highs is the first wave of wave 5 of higher degree. From the 1.1150 we're building the second wave which based on Elliot Wave should take form of 3 wave sequence, and ABC correction. So far we only made wave A and wave B is currently developing so expect here further consolidation before momentum start picking up an move towards our target

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Update 3: Coincidence or not last week rally stopped just 3 pips shy away from our target. The trend is up so any retracement should be limited. Actually for the next week I see price stay in this range 1.1150 support level and 1.1300 resistance level. After last rally market need to take his breath before any major move to happen

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USD/JPY Time for Some Consolidation

In Figure 1 you can see the USD/JPY quarterly chart, and being able to see the bigger picture it gives you another perspective that USD/JPY has not gone up as much as you would have thought, and that it's just the beginning of a multi-year bull market.
  • Figure 1. USD/JPY Quarterly chart.
But at the same time we must look at price action as well so you may ask yourself what's next for USD/JPY as you look on the price action. Yen is already down 17% versus the dollar so far just for this year. In F…
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ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 26 Sty

agree with you

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Update 1: As expected we headed lower and retested the 100.50 level which was a strong resistance in the past. We should now wait and see price retest the highs at 105.00 making a double top before to continue back down and retrace more

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Cable Is On The Verge Of Exploding

I don't know how many of you are aware the GBPUSD is on the verge to make/or not make a big advance in price. The weekly chart displays a possible bullish triangle (see Figure 1)which recently was broken to the upside. If we manage to close above 1.6350, on a weekly basis, there is a high probability that cable will see a dramatic upside movement. However the most important point is the last swing high 1.6738 which is a critical point in order for cable to experience a really big move. Since the…
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Update 1: As of today we're only 40 pips away for our target to be hit. We should expect to find support at 1.6570 which should limit any downside as we should expect to see some minor correction after the recent rally

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Update 2: Our target has been hit and we saw a perfect timing as soon as we hit our target we had a sell of and a correction from recent strong rally. the trend is still to the upside so I'm expecting the current correction to stop at 1.6560 previous swing high which should provide some support and see the next up leg

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Update 3: As expected from my previous update 1.6560 acted as strong support and we headed back higher staying in a tight range with 1.6770 resistance and 1.6580 strong resistance. After hitting our target the market didn't move much and now we're only 40 pips away from my 1.6790 target. the market has broke higher showing signs of strength and there is a high probability that Monday after London open to see the market pushing up to meet our target as the 1h suggest there is a strong supply level there.

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Update 4: Right now the market is in a very tight congestion with 1.6770 resistance level and 1.6700 support level, and we need some order flow to push the market above Friday's high 1.6770 in order to have any chance to get even closer to my target. Right now the market may be distorted because of recent developments in Ukraine

Metal_Mind avatar

You beat me with 0.01% .:)) Some competition this month :))

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2014 FX Market Outlook - AUD (part 3)

Although for the current contest month I'm out I'm still going to try to bring back my account at BE after suffering 80% loss in the first trading day, and this mean that I should make 400% to bring back my account to 100k, but I'm a fighter and never give up. So, I'm still going to make blogging as I really enjoy it so I'm going to continue with my 2014 FX Market Outlook blog series. This time we're going to look at Cable, you can see check my previous blog post here: …
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floge avatar
floge 6 Sty

"I don't know how many of you are aware the GBPUSD is on the verge to make/or not make a big advance in price" - i'm aware, the big test is on this area, must breakout 1,70 to run away, have she legs? will see :-D

Daytrader21 avatar

Definitely GBP is one to watch in 2014 but patience is required and also flexibility if market doesn't follow our plan

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EURUSD strong up after statements released

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EUR/AUD - Trading With the Trend

Yesterday I've got in a long EUR/AUD position which I had to mange according to current market conditions. If you have been reading my blog you should know by now the importance of trading in the direction of the trend. I want to emphasize this: that no market is to high to be bought or to low to be sold. When trading with the trend you have the momentum going with you, and even though the market starts moving against you by having the momentum on your side you'll find that more often than not t…
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Major Advance Could Occur in the Cable

I don't know how many of you are aware the GBPUSD is on the verge to make/or not make a big advance in price. The weekly chart displays a possible bullish triangle (see Figure 1)which recently was broken to the upside. If we manage to close above 1.6350, on a weekly basis, there is a high probability that cable will see a dramatic upside movement. However the most important point is the last swing high 1.6738 which is a critical point in order for cable to experience a really big move. Since the…
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Yami avatar
Yami 11 Gru

Good Luck Bro :)

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