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Both Timeframes Agree in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8754, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Range Top #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.
The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.
This underscore just how range-bound the EUR/TRY has become lately. But this is not a new phenomenon. See the chart above and you can notice the same zig-zag price action on the…
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EUR/SEK Nears Top of the Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5581, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Top #Single Currency #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona has been trading range-bound versus the Euro since the start of 2015. In December 2014 we peaked at 9.7268 and we haven't surpassed this high ever since. This doesn't mean that the bulls haven't tried. On the weekly chart below we show 5 subsequent attempts to break above this previous high, with no success.
With prices now nearing the levels where previous rallies have failed, it's natural to ask has the current move higher been overdone? I think yes. Notice how the Stochastic…
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The bulls have again been repelled (see pic 1 above) this time peaking at 9.5991. In the retracement that followed, a low of 9.4260 was hit.

The Stochastic (see pic 2 above) predicted this rejection nicely. But I don't put too much weight on indicators and I think the bigger reason for the resistance cluster we have above 9.6000.

This should continue to act as a lid on prices. We're now trading at 9.5072, about half a percent away from forecast.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

The EUR/SEK had a large rally during the past 24 hours. We moved from 5.5072 to a high of 5.5855. This is a rally of 1.4 percent in a pair that doesn't move that much.

Unfortunately for me, this means that the pair went from undershooting my target to overshooting it by quite a bit.

But it's not over yet! As I mentioned in my other comments I expect the resistance cluster from 9.60 to 9.78 to do its job and repel prices once again. Hopefully this will lead to the EUR/SEK landing nicely at my forecasted price and not undershoot it :)

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Time for another update! Prices did overshoot my target somewhat. As expected, as we got near the highs the pair was pummeled back into the ground.

We fell to a low of 9.5420 around mid-day but in the next few hours the EUR/SEK rose a bit, bringing it very close to my target.

At 12:00 GMT we closed at 9.5531, only 50 pips or 0.05% away from my forecasted price. Overall I think this was a solid analysis on my part. I identified the general market sentiment and made a correct bet that the resistance levels would keep prices down.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Here's an updated chart of what happened in August. Prices tried to make a run and break the highs but they were again repelled.

Note that now we have six rectangles on the chart, not five like in my original post. The last rectangle shows the latest price rejection this month.

The cluster of resistance levels from around 9.60 to 9.72 has again successfully stopped another rally in the EUR/SEK.

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Cable rallies on inflation report

al_dcdemo Updated 18 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #UK Inflation #H1 Chart #Range Top
UK inflation figures have been released today at 10:30 GMT, coming out mostly better than expected.
CPI y/y: 0.1% vs 0.0% expected, 0.0% previous
Core CPI y/y: 1.2% vs. 0.8% expected, 0.8% previous
RPI y/y: 1.0% vs. 1.0% expected, 1.0% previous
Core RPI y/y: 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected, 1.1% previous
Cable needed no excuse to rally above 50 DMA (1.5610), Previous Week High (1.5660) and five-week range top (1.5670 - 1.5690). It traded up to Weekly Resistance 1 (1.5714) so far and is currently stalling…
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Loonie setting up for a break to new highs

al_dcdemo Updated 14 July  in #Trader's blog #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Iran #H1 Chart #Range Top #Global Powers #Nuclear Agreement
Iran and the negotiators from the global powers have reached a nuclear agreement. That could see an easing of sanctions against Tehran and a gradual increase in its oil exports in the weeks ahead.
Loonie rallied in response and is currently testing seven-month range top between 1.2800 and 1.2835. If it manages to break and hold above that, the next target would be 2009 high at 1.3064 and then 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2007 decline near 1.3470.
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Loonie motoring higher

al_dcdemo Posted 7 July  in #Trader's blog #Oil #USD/CAD #Rate Cut #Safe Haven #H1 Chart #Range Top
Loonie traded to the highest since April the 1st and is approaching January to March range top while the price of oil continues to slide. Weaker data, speculation of another rate cut and safe haven USD demand are not helping it either.
Some resistance may come in between 1.2690 and 1.2700 (Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, 00's) but the real test will be at the above-mentioned range top in 1.2800 - 1.2835 band, which also hosts Weekly Resistance 2 and Monthly Resistance 2.
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