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Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 14 July  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Greece #Risk Aversion #Grexit
This is just and extracted post from my latest article which you can find it here: Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?
  • FX Market - Risk Aversion

Markets have consistently experienced " 100-year events" every five years. Paul Tudor Jones

They say the Black Swan events are characterized by rarity and extreme impact and once again the financial markets are proving this to be wrong as theory has nothing to do with reality. Not so long ago we had the SNB event which disrupted the market activ…
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Stix avatar
Stix 14 July

Hahaha ! Now that's good business ! :) :)

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Daytrader21 15 July

It's always a pleasure doing business with you:)

Stix avatar
Stix 15 July

I scored on both ends of that deal !  Hahaha ! Honesty, I thought it an excellent Article since planning ahead affords peace of mind, which is really beneficial. Personally, I don't have enough years of experience, so the input was really helpful. All in all, it was a good trade ! Thanks so much. :) :)

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Daytrader21 15 July

Always glad to hear when people actually can learn something from my work, this means that i'm not writing in vain. Thanks

Stix avatar
Stix 15 July

The Articles are excellent for me because I learn a lot, as with the blogs. Even if some writings are not always agreeable with one's own thoughts, they are good for purposes of reminding oneself of lessons learned and exposure to new ideas. It's never in vain, in my opinion. Here, I remember how little experience I have and how deeply I am engrossed in the detail, at present, so will give some time to forward planning, as a result. I appreciate that - since that is the direction, once the initial work is done. Thanks again. Much appreciated and well written. :) :)

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FX Market Talk

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 7 July  in #Trader's blog #Rba #EUR/USD #Fx Market #Risk Aversion
So far the market has not entered in full risk aversion mode and despite Greece referendum "NO" vote victory EUR/USD exchange rates looks quite stable. Not even RBA rate decision could spark some volatility in aussie as kiwi was moving more than aussie on RBA decision, go figure.
I'll be trading very defensively and my main priority is still to capital preservation and last but not least to try to recover my long term account balance. Last month I managed to move in the right direction and ended…
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Greek People Have Spoken

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 6 July  in #Trader's blog #Risk Aversion #Grexit #Brussels #Yanis Varoufakis #Greece Referendum
With a clear victory of the NO camp we're back on the negotiation table and this time around the pressure for reaching a deal is on the Brussels side after this morning announcement that Greek FM Yanis Varoufakis has step down in order to help the negotiation going further and after Brussels demands that they want him out this puts pressure on Brussels side as now Greece has some leverage to work with and any fail to reach an agreement will be blamed on Brussels.
Expect some volatility in the FX…
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Risk Aversion Full Scale

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 29 June  in #Trader's blog #EUR/JPY #GBP/JPY #Greece #Bonds #Risk Aversion #Assets Classes
As per my expectations we had quite an interesting FX opening you can read more about what I had to say over the weekends here: Greece Saga Final Act
This is what an ideal risk aversion scenario looks like when the safe haven currencies are in high demand and currencies like JPY, CHF and the US Dollar are the ultimate beneficiary on this environment. The magnitude of the gaps we saw especially with the yen pairs where something that we never saw at least not in the recent history. But not only t…
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Greece Saga Final Act

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 28 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Volatility #Greece #Default #Referendum #Risk Aversion #Imf #Black Swan #Grexit
This time around the count down has started for Greece and they are really running out of time. Recent developments in the past 24 hours have been quite substantial and make no mistake about it Greece is going to default as IMF has send quite a strong message that they are not going to move the deadline for the debt repayment which is 30 Jun and the Greek referendum over paying/nopaying the debt is useless.
  • Greece bank Run
Photo Source: TheGuardian

The tell-tale signs of disaster wi…
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Daytrader21 28 June

pipx I just wish I would be that smart to know how things will unfold, unfortunately we'll have to wait and see how the market will open, it will be interesting

pipx avatar
pipx 28 June

Maybe we can try this on a demo, sell EUR/USD +50 pips above Friday close, I will also mess around  with EUR/CHF :-)

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Daytrader21 28 June

EUR/USD has just opened at 1.1000....-160 pips gap :)

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Daytrader21 28 June

Now on EBS is 1.0965 but semi-official FX open in another hour

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CommunitySupport 30 June

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Grexit Saga Continues

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 21 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #EUR/USD #Greece #Risk Aversion #Grexit #Bailout #Fx Volatility #Ela
Grexit or may just Greece default remain the most important trigger of FX volatility in the coming week. The ongoing negotiation between Brussels and Greece are just crazy and I wouldn't be surprised if they will extend again the deadline for the bailout which expire on 30 Jun. I'm not expecting anything new on the Monday's summit, and that should be the case if you take in consideration how things unfolded so far.
However all this uncertainty has failed to produce any meaningless moves in the F…
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Geopolitical Risk Greatest Threat to Risk Aversion

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 12 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #EUR/USD #Ukraine #Us Dollar #Geopolitical Risk #Risk Aversion #Treasuries
Risk in the market remains elevate by current Russia-Ukraine conflict on the one hand and USA&EU vs Russia sanctions. I'm expecting this geopolitical risks to remain elevate in coming weeks as there are no sign of any de-escalation of this conflict. In this regard we should expect market sentiment to be in risk aversion mode as this is clearly suggested by the lower equity price and higher Treasuries.
Globally there is more than just Ukraine-Russia conflict we have Gaza-Israel conflict, Iraq, S…
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Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 8 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/JPY #GBP/JPY #Technicals #Geopolitical Risk #Risk Aversion
Here I'm going to give my explanation of my latest trades:
Currency Pair: EUR/JPY
Side: Long
Amount: 5Mill
Time Frame: 4h
Open Price: 136.66
Close Price: 136.983
PnL: +32pips
Open date: 06.08.2014 13:41:06
Close Date: 07.08.2014 05:16:52
Reasons Behind the trade: This trade was based pure on technicals, simply support and resistance levels on an intraday levels. But also on correlations as well as EUR/USD price action looks very oversold so I was expecting a short squeeze and this will drag EUR/…
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Neu_spir8 8 Aug.

Nicely analysed pal and by the way i got messed up when laughed about ur lose, my apology, will never do that again.

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Daytrader21 8 Aug.

Neu_spir8 Take it easy I never interpreted your comments that way. I laugh about my losses all the time:))

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Yen Pairs On The Move

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 9 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Yen #Boj #Carry Trade #S P500 #Us Dollar #Risk Aversion #Stimulus Program
The big risk event from recent session was BOJ rate decision, but it only was of big importance because market participants assumed that the BOJ would follow up with an upgrade of his stimulus program. The BOJ did nothing however the yen pairs were sold of in a strong fashion way but this only happened during the NY session.
Figure 1. USD/JPY Daily Chart

What we saw with the yen movements was not a general risk aversion theme because the S&P500 and also the US dollar were not confirming this mo…
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independeceday32 9 Apr.

No probem daytrader21, I think this armike speaking respectfully defending his opinion. Clearly not, stop hunting define the whole movement in the yen yesterday, and I think the same way that daytrader21 about this topic.Armike I think it is clear that in forex, even OTC, there are manipulations, a week ago came the news that the FBI was investigating big banks operating in forex, because their employees by messages through the Bloomberg or Reuters terminals, agreed positions market. This makes clear that there are manipulations in forex, but I think due to lower volume than other market.

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 9 Apr.

sorry, I wrote the name wrong .... Airmike.!!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 9 Apr.

Sorry guys,I think is onlz misunderstanding. My opinion is a bit damaged by professional deformation :). It is very hard to explain, when we are talking about different stuff. for example Market - Forex. Manipulation - SLH. I am talking about Forex and SLH and probability to see something like this by small investor eyes on daily basis. My opinion is that is no chance to see or prove any SLH technique just by the screening a chart. that's impossible. 99% of breakout spike are definitely not SLH, and movements about 100 points are not at all. Thats my opinion :)

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 9 Apr.

I agree with you Airmike, it is impossible for a movement of 100 points, is to SLH, and previously I did not mean that the whole movement yesterday the USD / JPY was due to SLH, it is impossible, I just used a colloquial talking.

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Daytrader21 9 Apr.

Mike, I say the same let's just not get lost into the semantics and lose sight of the things that really matter.

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Why I Was Long AUD/USD?

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 5 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #AUD/USD #Gold #Long #Risk Aversion #Fractal
The only position I left open into NFP release was my long AUD/USD(see Figure 1), but I've also took a long EUR/JPY position after the news came out which offset all my gains in the AUD/USD and overall I ended up at BE+. Yesterday I advised to go short yen crosses but I've ignored my own advice, which was a big mistake. I had multiple reasons to enter long aussie, and one of the reason can be found in my previous blog post: …
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