The only position I left open into NFP release was my long AUD/USD(see Figure 1), but I've also took a long EUR/JPY position after the news came out which offset all my gains in the AUD/USD and overall I ended up at BE+. Yesterday I advised to go short yen crosses but I've ignored my own advice, which was a big mistake. I had multiple reasons to enter long aussie, and one of the reason can be found in my previous blog post: NonFarm Payroll. Trade Pattern Idea. were my conclusion was that the day of the release of NFP is typically a bullish day for the S&P500 so this suggest we're having a RISK ON environment, this tells us that a good currency pair candidate to trade in such scenario is to go long AUD/USD.

  • Figure 1. AUD/USD 1h chart.
This is because RISK On promotes a yield view among investor. On the other hand In terms of risk aversion if the data disappoint I prefer to play to the downside the yen crosses.

The second reason why I went long aussie is because I'm using a fractal model that tracks the price action in AUD/USD which suggest that we're going up. I've presented this fractal model last month during my webinar when AUD/USD was only trading at around 0.9000 level.
  • Figure 2. Aussie-Gold Fractal.
Aussie is following gold price action(see Figure 2), and I'm using a fractal from 31 days ago to guide the recent price action in aussie. If you don't know what fractal are basically Fractals are self-similar patterns, a fractal may be exactly the same at every scale, or they may be nearly the same at different scales. But as it can be seen AUD/USD is following Gold since last year.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
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