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Cable Seasonality Pattern Points Lower

Daytrader21 Postado 18 Out como análise GBP/USD, Alvo: 1.5086, Data: 1 de dezembro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Psychological Number #Seasonality #Support/resistance
Cable is showing a strong seasonal pattern to go lower during the month of November. We can see that during the previous two months GBP/USD has been moving in the same line with the seasonal pattern and this may be a strong case to assume that it will continue to do so in the next month.Don't forget, never use this information alone but instead use the technical tools to confirm this ideas or not, so we're going to look at technicals as well.

Important levels to watch:
[l…
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Daytrader21 9 Nov

Update 3: As expected the strong seasonality pattern that we saw in cable has played out quite well. Even thought after recent sell-off we have hit our target there is still scope to break below current support level which is the big psychological number 1.5000. A break below this level will bring us to 1.4880 from where we should expect a strong rally and correct the entire sell off.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov

Update 4: there is scope for more upside until 1.5320 where we have a big pivot level from where we should expect to see a reversal. To the downside the most notable support area is around 1.5200 and only a daily close below this level should signal more downside.

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Daytrader21 22 Nov

Update 5: Cable has been following his seasonal pattern very well over the past month and we should expect more downside to come.First level of resistance is at 1.5330 while support stands at last week low 1.5150

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Daytrader21 29 Nov

Update 6: As expected we have challenged again the big psychological figure 1.5000 but we haven't managed to get a weekly close below it. This week we should expect to act as support level. For this coming week first level of resistance comes at 1.5110 only 24 pips above my initial forecast of just 1.5086. If the big figure holds there is a high probability that my level to be hit on the 1st of December

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Daytrader21 1 Dez

Update 6 : This has proven to be a pretty good forecast with only 9 pips deviation from my initial forecast of 1.5086. As expected the fact that we couldn't close below the big psychological figure 1.5000 on a weekly basis has made this bounce possible. First we hit resistance at 1.5125 from where the sell off started and we close the 11:00-12:00 candle at 1.50772. This prediction was on target the whole day and definitely it could have been much better.

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Kiwi Calling The Bottom

Daytrader21 Postado 3 Jul  em #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Bottom #Kiwi #Seasonality #Cot Report
Two days ago in my recent webinar I've been calling out the possibility of a bottom in kiwi. I'm not expecting a full reversal just a rally inside a bearish trend or a correction as nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Even last month I've been warning that we need to prepare for a bounce but also highlighting that timing the bounce is key, you can read what I had to say back then here: NZ Dollar COT Extreme
Figure 1: NZD/USD Seasonality

The reason why I've…
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July FX Seasonality Patterns

Daytrader21 Postado 1 Jul  em #Trader's blog #GBP #Patterns #Dollar Index #NZD/USD #Seasonality #Cot Report
Since a new month has started, the best way to asserts the probability of where the market is likely to be heading in this month is for us to look at the seasonality patterns. The seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.
You can find more details how this seasonal patterns affect the exchange rate and more importantly how to correctly us…
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Expeaan 1 Jul

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Daytrader21 1 Jul

Expeaan Thanks for the nutritive lessons:)

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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

Daytrader21 Postado 30 Jun como análise NZD/CAD, Alvo: 0.8591, Data: 3 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #Rally #NZD/CAD #Seasonality
NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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Daytrader21 26 Jul

Update 4: As expected we pushed higher from previous week support at 0.8440 and we managed to break and close above the big figure 0.8500 which is another positive sign for the bulls in the short term price action. Next week I'm expecting the big figure to be retested and old resistance to become new support.

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Daytrader21 1 Ago

Update 5: Last Friday we saw the power of the big round number 0.8500 and the explosive rally from that level. For Monday we should expect a retrace to at least 0.8590 which is near my forecast target of 0.8591 and which is a previous strong supply area that now can act as support. The plan for Monday will be a break above Friday's high 0.8650 or a retest than a quick fade and a break towards 0.8590

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 1 Ago

really great analysis!

Mariia avatar
Mariia 2 Ago

well done Daytrader21

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anna_n 2 Ago

great thoughts as usual!

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Cable Fractal Map. Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 Postado 25 Jun  em #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fibonacci Retracement #Seasonality #Momentum #Fractal
In today's blog post I want to take the time and talk about my recent trade which was long GBP/USD. This trade was based on a market model or you can call it a fractal pattern (see Figure 1) that cable has been following since the start of the sell off from 2014 highs. Now, even though I got out of this trade relative fast the upside momentum should prevail if we take in consideration the seasonality cycles of GBP/USD which has the tendencies to strengthen during the summer time period and post …
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Cable Strong Seasonality Pattern

Daytrader21 Postado 14 Jun como análise GBP/USD, Alvo: 1.5893, Data: 3 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Cable #Psychological Number #Seasonality
Cable is also showing a strong seasonal pattern to bottom during summer time(see Figure 1). We can see that this pattern is quite strong and the general strength caries on all the way through July until August comes in and where we have another strong seasonality pattern. Don't forget never use this information alone but instead use the technical tools to confirm this ideas or not, so we're going to look at technicals as well.
Figure 1. British Pound Seas
…
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Daytrader21 26 Jun

Update 2: This week we retrace the rally from previous week and we found support as expect at previous swing high 1.5810 which should be strong support for the next week as well. We need another push higher towards 1.5900 and eventually towards 1.6000 big figure before to resume down again.

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Daytrader21 10 Jul

Update 3. Even though we have a strong pullback the market is unable to have a weekly close below the big round number 1.5500. If this level holds we should expect next week more upside. First level of resistance is at 1.5650 a close above this level should initiate more upside momentum

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Daytrader21 15 Jul

Update 4: Since we managed to break again above the big figure 1.5500 we should expect further upside momentum. Also the 1.5600 level is an important pivot point and we manage to break and have a daily close above it, this level should act for now as support

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Daytrader21 19 Jul

Update 5: Cable is setting up the stage for another upside run as the seasonality pattern suggest. Also technicaly we have posted a double top at the 1.5670 level where many stops resides and in many cases this are taken out when we have such a clear double top. A close above 1.5670 can boost momentum and see higher prices in next week.

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Daytrader21 26 Jul

Update 6: As per my previous update right now we posted a triple top at 1.5670 which makes it even more higher probable that we'll see a break above it. Also this past week we stopped right above the big round number 1.5500 without being able to break below it suggesting the bulls are still in control

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EUR/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Postado 14 Jun como análise EUR/CAD, Alvo: 1.4383, Data: 3 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #EUR/CAD #Elliott Wave #Cycle #Seasonality
EUR/CAD has been trading to the downside since beginning of the last year when we put in place the major swing high at 1.5600. Based on Elliott Wave cycle we're in the last stage of this sell of, as currently the market has completed a 5 wave sequence. Each impulsive wave is composed by another 5 wave of smaller degree and we can count this wave both in wave III and now in wave V. Right now the current low at big figure 1.3000 has market the low and the final point of this down cycle. Right now …
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Daytrader21 15 Jul

Update 4: As expect the market found some support at the big round number and the fact that we could break below it suggest that the market is ready to resume upwards. The next level of resistance is at mid figure 1.4150 we need a close above this level for further upside momentum

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Daytrader21 26 Jul

Update 6: Wave C is almost completed and this past week we almost touched our target of 1.4383. We can still see another test of the 1h support at 1.4245 before to see another push higher. Basically I'm expecting an consolidation top here

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Daytrader21 1 Ago

Update 7: Right now as I'm writing this update we're only 6 pips away from my forecast. But since the 1.4340 level is a strong pivot zone which has acted both as support and resistance level we should expect now this level to act as support and we can also see price hovering around this levels on Monday. I see another retest of 1.4340 than another push higher towards 1.4380 during the London session.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 1 Ago

I really have to study your analysis. I also use Elliot's waves, but never come so close:) Great job and just hope the price doesn't mmove away too much on Monday:) Good Luck!

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Mariia 2 Ago

Thanks Daytrader21 !well done

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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

Daytrader21 Postado 14 Jun como análise AUD/JPY, Alvo: 98.3000, Data: 3 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Seasonality #Support/resistance #Range Box
AUDJPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there …
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Daytrader21 19 Jun

Update 1: We're still moving inside the range box from Figure 1. Right now support stands at big figure 95.00.  We should continue moving inside this range zone for the most part in the coming weeks because of the summer trading conditions. Resistance stands at 97.00.

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Daytrader21 26 Jun

Update 2: The market it still reluctant to go higher and right now the 94.50 support level is retested. The fact that we couldn't break it and have a weekly close below it is a sign that we should see higher price into next week. Resistance stands at 96.30.

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EUR/CAD Longs Stopped Out

Daytrader21 Postado 12 Jun  em #Trader's blog #EUR/CAD #Seasonality
Despite taking some losses on EUR/CAD from Wednesday's trades, yesterday I was still trying to get long EUR/CAD and got burned again. However since than I've changed my opinion on this pair and I think there is room for another leg lower before going up again. And yesterday I tried to go short as well but unfortunately my timing was so awful I ended up getting stooped out. Cumulative losses from all my long attempt have been eating from my account balance quite a lot, as I had more than -100 pip…
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EUR/CAD -72 Pips Loss. Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 Postado 11 Jun  em #Trader's blog #EUR/CAD #Seasonality #CAD Dollar
Unfortunately yesterday after a series of good trades I took a loss on EUR/CAD. I tried 2 times to go long but I was forced to close the trade at a loss because of the market action. The reason why my timing was wrong is because the CAD dollar has a strong seasonality pattern during the first part of Jun which I overlooked. EUR/CAD has just broke outside some consolidation pattern and if we project that range to the upside we get a target of 1.4500. Timing remains key with this cross pair as it …
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Stix avatar
Stix 11 Jun

I did something similar the other day. Standard set-up, should have been a simple trade but it failed. On the second attempt, I checked Monthly set-up technicals but if I had done full analysis that morning, I would have seen it immediately. We will learn ! Hahaha ! Best wishes. :) :)

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Daytrader21 11 Jun

Stix Unfortunately I tried today for several times to go long again but it didn't ended well:). Silly me as I was stubborn and had no flexibility whatsoever and it cost me several pips again.

Stix avatar
Stix 11 Jun

I think a long is right but I think one has to be patient still here, instead of a lack of flexibility, if I might. I like a 1.3760 entry-ish for now, so possibly waiting for one more wave short. It depends on the technicals at the time of the price but that's what I like for now. :) :)

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Daytrader21 11 Jun

There is a strong CAD seasonality pattern during this time of the year, and it has the tendencies to top at the end of Jun, so time wise it will be best to wait until that pattern unfolds as it will help the long side of eurcad

Stix avatar
Stix 11 Jun

Thanks... I haven't traded for long enough to formulate a picture of all the trends, particularly the higher level ones. Much appreciated. :) :)

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