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NZD/USD to revisit bottom of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Demand #NZD/USD #Trading Range #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 3: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Mostly owing to U.S. dollar weakness, Kiwi proved to be impressively resilient amid market turmoil. It is currently down on the week only against the lowest of low yielders: euro, yen and franc. Declining 2014 - 2015 trendline, reinforced by the broken September - December trendline and 200 DMA, remains the resistance level to watch. If it gives way, 0.69 - 0.70 will come into focus. 50 and 100 DMA are the immediate support levels ahead of 0.65 - 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 5: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 20 Feb.

UPDATE 6: World stock and commodity markets stabilized somewhat along with an overall improvement in risk sentiment. Volatility in major currency pairs fell, particularly in commodity-linked ones. Kiwi ended the week not very far from the opening levels with a similarly unimpressive weekly range - barely over 100 pips. This is most likely just a temporary calm as global macroeconomic landscape remains very much the same.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Kiwi lost almost 100 pips on the day with the daily range more than 150 pips. It posted outside down day which may lead to more losses in the days ahead.

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Cable keeps gaining

al_dcdemo Updated 16 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fomc #Greece #Trading Range #Safe Haven Flows #Dip Buyers
Cable has been incredibly resilient lately and some of that may also be attributed to the safe haven flows due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece. It fell today on weaker than expected inflation report, but buyers were waiting in the dips and soon took the pair to new highs for the day, week and month.
Tomorrow is the FOMC day and the pair will likely remain in this upward grinding trading range at least until then. When it breaks, first stronger support may come in between 1.5450 and 1…
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NZD/USD defies gravity

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.8023, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Decline #Trading Range #Higher Prices
Monthly chart:
Price is in a lower part of 2011 - 2014 trading range, which is a part of a long-term uptrend. Strong support on the downside is 100 month SMA around 0.75 and then 38.2% retracement of the March 2009 to August 2011 rally. On the upside, 20 and 50 month SMA should provide initial resistance.
Weekly chart:
After 12.5% decline in Q3 2014, the pair settled into 0.7600 - 0.8050 range. One of these two levels will need to be convincingly broken to provide direction for the next leg.
D…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: Kiwi was the only of the major pairs besides Yen, that hasn't broke to new lows on Friday. Despite that, it lost nearly a cent and closed right on the lows. It is now in the lower quarter of the 0.7600 - 0.8050 range, which increasingly appears more like a declining wedge.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair was the best performing major currency this week. After it tested range support near 0.76 on Monday, it then reversed and traded back towards the other end of the range. It added more than two cents from the lows and closed the week on highs and above 50 day SMA. It will need to break and hold above 0.7850 to confirm bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: Past week's action was another good performance for the pair, which continues to defy general US Dollar strength. Despite that it hasn't managed to beat the Dollar this week, it has successfully preserved most of its previous week's gains. It closed just below 50 day SMA which is gradually turning higher.  Either way it will break from this prolonged sideways congestion, it will likely determine mid-term direction.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9835, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Snb #Bullish Trend #Trading Range #EUR/CHF Peg
The broad base dollar strength across the board has manage to change the bearish sentiment on this pair and since beginning of this summer USD/CHF has been trading in an steady bullish trend. Based on Elliott Wave count (see Figure 1) we still have much to go to the upside before to complete a five wave sequence. We have just completed wave III and wave IV is ready to develop a corrective phase before another upward leg to take place and complete the five wave sequence.
Figure 1. US
…
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: Wave IV has been deepening below the 0.9450 level however this doesn't change much the price structure and we're on track for further consolidation as usually based on Elliott Wave during wave IV we should expect and ABC correction or some type of consolidation.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: Since we took out the previous swing high at 0.9685 and made a new high this means that the wave IV has ended and wave V is currently developing. This final wave can take shape of another 5 wave of smaller degree. Support remains at 0.9500 big round number which is also the 50% retracement of last up leg from 0.9370 low. Key resistance remains 0.9700

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 3: As expected last week we couldn't break below 0.9500 big round number and neither break above 0.9700 as the market has closed near that level. Although we haven't succeed breaking and closing above 0.9700 the momentum is still to the upside and next week we should expect the up trend to resume. For next week 0.9660 is the support level and we should expect a break above previous swing high 0.9740 and beyond.

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GBPCHF Stuck In Trading Range For Now

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5020, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #GBP/CHF #Trading Range #Trading Channel
GBP/CHF like the most swiss pairs have been going nowhere since SNB step into the market we have been stuck into a big range. We have establish the range between 1.5480 high and 1.3800 low, an 680 pips range. we can been seen that for the most part we have been staying at the lower level of this range comparing it with the times we have visited the high of the range. From figure 1 it can been seen that we have multiple touch of support and only one touch of resistance. This multiple rejection of…
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Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: As expected 1.4870 resistance level capped the market and by they shape of price action structure this can be wave 2 of wave III of C. Usually wave 3 is the longest wave based on Elliot wave and we should see momentum start accelerating after 1.4870 resistance level will be broken and turned in support. 

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: We're on our way to hit the my target with only 50 pips to go. You can see how after we broke the 1.4870 the market never looked back. From here on 1.5000 should provide a good support zone amd should limit any downside movement

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Daytrader21 24 May

Update 4: We have hit again our target making a double top here. But there is a high change to consolidate here between 1.5080 resistance zone and 1.4980 support zone. This move has already run his curse so she need to take some breath.

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Daytrader21 31 May

Update 5: As expected from my previous update we had a reaction from the 1.2080 and we indeed consolidate around 1.5000 big round number. The daily range has also become more tight between 1.5030-1.4990 usually Monday is not a day where we can expect big breakouts and most likely we should stay in this tight congestion zone, for now we're only 20 pips away from my target so anything is possible.

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Daytrader21 2 June

Update 6: As expected we have move within some tight congestion zones between 1.5040 resistance zone and 1.5000 big round number and support zone for this pair. My prediction had a deviation of just 6 pips from my target which is quite an accurate prediction. From here on we should see momentum start picking up as long as the 1.5000 support level holds.

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Major Advance Could Occur in the Cable

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Economy #Projection #Bullish Triangle #Trading Range
I don't know how many of you are aware the GBPUSD is on the verge to make/or not make a big advance in price. The weekly chart displays a possible bullish triangle (see Figure 1)which recently was broken to the upside. If we manage to close above 1.6350, on a weekly basis, there is a high probability that cable will see a dramatic upside movement. However the most important point is the last swing high 1.6738 which is a critical point in order for cable to experience a really big move. Since the…
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Yami avatar
Yami 11 Dec.

Good Luck Bro :)

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