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I AM HOPING TO SEE A RETURN TO 1.60 Long GBPUSD for medium term: momentum, weaker USD, short squeeze POUND STERLING / US DOLLAR (FX_IDC:GBPUSD) 1.3022 0.0045 0.35%

Strategyrunner Posted 18 May  in #GBP #USD #Gbpusd #UK Election #UK EU Referendum
Momentum in Cable has flipped to the upside, breaking a major 2-year downtrend.
MORE LIKE 10 YEARS 2006 1GU =2.04 Actual trade
CFTC data shows speculators still heavily net short GBP.
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"Is a second referendum a bad idea? Not if we ask the right question"

fx_lmcap Posted 26 Nov.  in #Brexit #UK EU Referendum
Simon Jenkins, a columnist at theguardian wrote an article about the possibility of a second referendum. Jenkins shares an interesting point of view over how a second referendum should be regarded.
A full version of Jenkins’ article can be accessed in this link. I leave here some quotes:
The fury in some quarters that greeted the UK vote on Brexit last June swiftly morphed into
a demand that voters be immediately re-polled, as if they would then repent the error of
their ways.
(...)
The divorce
…
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UK labor market shows little sign of immediate Brexit hit

varda Posted 17 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #GBP #USD #UK #UK EU Referendum
The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in Britain unexpectedly fell in July despite the shock decision by voters to leave the European Union, suggesting little immediate impact from Brexit on the labor market.Benefit claimants fell by 8,600 in the month, compared with an increase of 900 in June, and there was only a small fall in the number of jobs employers were trying to fill, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected…
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Cable is Oversold

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3789, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Volatility #Cable #Us Dollar #Pound #Bank Of England #Brexit #UK EU Referendum
The GBP/USD dropped over 10% shortly after Brexit. While we've had some stabilization since then, prices are still relatively low as can be seen on the chart below. The weekly Stochastic Oscillator is still in oversold territory at 14.
Let's take a look at the lower timeframe chart. Cable hit a low of 1.2797 in the Brexit aftermath. Later on prices retraced to a high of 1.3480 and we're currently quoted at 1.3233. The 4H chart shows a choppy but undeniably upward sloping movement.
The weekly is …
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Cable to Clawback Some Brexit Losses

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3888, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Us Dollar #Pound #Brexit #UK EU Referendum
I expect Cable to clawback some of the post-Brexit losses. As you probably know unless you lived under a rock, past week the UK voted to leave the EU. This crashed the Pound from over 1.5000 to just 1.3291 right now. A combination of uncertainty and increased odds for extra QE by the BOE lead to severe losses. Few days ago a low point of 1.3116 was hit. I have a reason to believe this is the lowest we'll get, at least this summer.
For one, look at the daily chart below. The Stochastic Oscillator…
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Post-Brexit Volatility to Die Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8336, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Boe #Euro #Volatility #EUR/GBP #Pound #Brexit #UK EU Referendum
The EUR/GBP had an uncharacteristically volatile week. Prices spiked over 600 pips on Friday after the UK voted to leave the European Union. Since then however calmer heads prevailed and we're seeing the pair revert to its boring self.
I'm betting on no major changes in this pair. Fundamentally the Brexit will hurt both economies short-term, partially by the separation and confidence shock and partially by renewed Central Bank easing on both sides of the Channel. But more important, on a technic…
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Swiss franc benefits from safe haven flows

al_dcdemo Posted 8 June  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Nfp Report #D1 Chart #U S Dollar Weakness #UK EU Referendum
Swissie has been one of the big movers in the past few days. There were no particular drivers cited but U.S. dollar weakness after Friday's NFP report and flight to safety in the run up to UK EU referendum are certainly two of them.
The pair lost 250 pips in three days and more than 300 from the top, set in May near 0.9950. It is back below the three daily moving averages and is currently testing 2011 - 2016 trendline with 100 WMA (0.9625) just below. 50 DMA is the initial resistance.
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Potentially Large Gains for Cable

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4889, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #GBP/USD #Europe #Cable #Gains #Movement #Uptrend #UK EU Referendum
We could potentially see large gains in Cable. The pair has been repressed in the past year by political instability. First by the Scottish independence referendum last year and now by the coming EU exit referendum. But as time goes on the 'Remain' camp continues to secure the lead. This could lead to some short squeezing as we get closer to the referendum date in June.
On the daily chart below we can see a completed reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This signals that more gains could be on th…
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Mostly sideways action to start the week

al_dcdemo Updated 23 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #U S Dollar #D1 Chart #UK EU Referendum #G7 Currencies #Central Bank Meetings
Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that.
Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).
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GBP/USD to jump on no Brexit no Fed hike

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4825, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range #UK EU Referendum
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows se…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 5: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150 pip decline in Cable and a 200 pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 17 June

UPDATE 7: Cable staged an impressive reversal yesterday, sadly after the killing of a British MP, a supporter of the Remain campaign. A big part of it was probably just profit taking in GBP/JPY after stops below 150 were cleared all the way to 145. Cable posted a hammer-like reversal on the daily chart and followed through overnight. 1.43 - 1.4350 is the next stronger support (May low, 100 DMA, broken February - April trendline) and then 1.4450 - 1.45 (includes 50 DMA). 1.42 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 9: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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