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04/06/2017

This week offers two major events, the ECB meeting and UK elections.
The ECB is expected to rebuff recent CPI strength, arguing that it has been due to a combination of factors. May’s CPI weakening to 1.4% and 0.9%, headline and core, respectively, gives sense to ECB officials recent reiterations that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels if needed.
Though, the ECB may signal intentions of tweaking asset purchases next year from the actual level of EUR60B. If not in this meetin…
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Next week to watch out

Next week we have news of JPY GDP news which will come positive will have huge impact on USD/JPY and it may go down to 109 levels.
The most important events include the UK General Election and the ECB monetary policy decision. In the US, the ISM non manufacturing PMI, consumer credit and final figures for labour cost and productivity will be released. Monetary policy decisions in India and Australia; GDP for Japan, Australia and South Africa; China trade and inflation will also be in the spotlig…
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03/06/2017

The new month began with the US dollar weakening against the euro, the sterling pound and the yen.
To put this in a better context notice that: EUR/USD closed this week at 1.1283 vs 1.1180 last week; GBP/USD closed this week at 1.2889 vs 1.2803 last week; and USD/JPY closed this week at 110.37 vs 111.32 last week.
The US dollar lost almost 100 pips in each of these three currency pairs since last week close.
The main factor for this previous slump was May NFP data reported yesterday. The unem…
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UK Election and Market Over view

Latest YouGov poll, which estimated that PM May Conservative party may loss up to 20 seats in the upcoming General Election, suggesting that the UK could end up with a hung Parliament. If that is the case then no more brexit and GBP will recover and hit new high of the year. Expecting to cross cable will reach around 1.45 levels.
UK Q1 GDP Growth Revised Down To 2% YoY
UK Q1 GDP Growth Revised Down To 0.2%
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Pound Targeting 1.3500?

The Pound could be targeting the 1.3500 round level in June. Exhibit A is the chart below. Notice how after a strong +900 pips rally from the lows the pair is now consolidating. The fact that we're currently quoted less then 200 pips below the highs signals to me that this is just a healthy retracement on the way to more gains. The UK election is coming up soon and that should act as a price catalyst as well.
But what could be our target? The nearest resistance level can be found at the 1.3448 s…
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Will Brexit Trigger Exodus of Banks From London?:

Will Brexit Trigger Exodus of Banks From London?:London has flourished as a financial center for decades in part because global banks, from offices around the bustling City of London district, could sell their services freely around the European Union’s 28-nation trading bloc. Now that British voters have decided to leave the EU — the complicated international divorce known as Brexit — the city’s status as a banking hub is under threat. If U.K. firms lose easy access to Europe’s $19 trillion eco…
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I AM HOPING TO SEE A RETURN TO 1.60 Long GBPUSD for medium term: momentum, weaker USD, short squeeze POUND STERLING / US DOLLAR (FX_IDC:GBPUSD) 1.3022 0.0045 0.35%

Momentum in Cable has flipped to the upside, breaking a major 2-year downtrend.
MORE LIKE 10 YEARS 2006 1GU =2.04 Actual trade
CFTC data shows speculators still heavily net short GBP.
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Will BoE Turn More Hawkish Ahead of UK Election?

With Inflation Rising Fast, Could the BoE Be Forced to Consider Raising Interest Rates?

The Bank of England finds itself in another tight spot when it meets on Thursday – or Super Thursday as it's become known since the addition once a quarter of the inflation report and Governor Mark Carney's press conference.
It seems that policy makers at the central bank have found themselves in a permanent tight spot since last June's referendum. The constant balancing act of trying to manage the UK throug…
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EUR/GBP to Stabilize in June

The EUR/GBP had a wild ride in May. With a total monthly range of 428 pips, the pair experiences large volatility, mainly on the back of the UK election.
With that event now out of the way, I expect prices to stabilize going forward. The technical picture too points me in this direction. The 0.7190 level is a 61 percent Fibonacci retracement of the last EUR/GBP move higher (marked on the chart below). This is also not far from Friday's close at 0.7183. I expect this level to put pressure on any …
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Cable continues uptrend

Cable is continuing its post-election (and pre-election) rally and has just broken above February high and 38.2% retracement of the July 2014 to April 2015 decline. Looking at momentum on any timeframe, it'd be difficult to say that this is the top.
Next layer of resistance is seen in 1.5600 - 1.5610 band (1.56 level, Daily Resistance 2, Weekly resistance 1) before 200 DMA just below 1.5650.
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