Community
Blog

Community Blog

Add post
Filtrowane przez tagi:  Uncertainty
Avatar

USD/CHF Data for both markets will consolidate price.

Unrestricted Przesłano 8 Paź jako Analiza USD/CHF, Cel: 0.97434, Data: 1 z Grudzień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Technical #Wave #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Hope #Moving Average #Uncertainty #Wave Analysis #Stochastic
Looking at the Wave shape and 4h trading channel we might see some consolidation around 200EMA. On first chart You can see how I am expecting the trading values through the wave channel. (4h chart)
Daily chart presenting some estimation how the sale signals should be initiated base on STOCH and his sequential for on 20days cycle.
Will comment later on how this looks in to my estimation
Good Luck
Czytaj więcej
Przetłumacz na Angielski Pokaż oryginał

Gdy nie jesteś zalogowany, nie wiemy jakim językiem się posługujesz, lecz przypuszczamy iż jest to Angielski
Zarejestruj się lub wybierz inny język do tłumaczenia z listy.

– lub –

Zostaw komentarz
lubZostaw komentarz
Avatar

AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating

al_dcdemo Przesłano 21 Lis jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7325, Data: 1 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
Czytaj więcej
Przetłumacz na Angielski Pokaż oryginał

Gdy nie jesteś zalogowany, nie wiemy jakim językiem się posługujesz, lecz przypuszczamy iż jest to Angielski
Zarejestruj się lub wybierz inny język do tłumaczenia z listy.

– lub –

12 Komentarze
Pokaż 7 więcej komentarzy
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Gru

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Gru

UPDATE 9: The pair started the last day of the year on a solid footing, continuing the strength that has been seen throughout both holiday weeks. December's high (~0.7385) is the initial target ahead of 200 DMA (currently ~0.7415) though we probably won't see either of them achieved before next week. Buyers are likely to start coming in at 0.73 and below, keeping the pair well contained.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sty

UPDATE 10: Moves on the last day of the year were relatively big, reflecting final adjustments for the year in low liquidity. However, Aussie was not where the greatest action was. It's daily range was in fact the second smallest (~60 pips), behind the Kiwi (~45 pips) - as opposed to Swissie (~155 pips) and Cable (~120 pips). Last bid price before the end of the contest period was 0.72864, that's 38.6 pips below my target (0.7325). A good prediction with decent accuracy.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Sty

Great  Analysis : )
Tanti auguri al_dcdemo
Do you think that the Oil retracement could improve at the opening session the forecast ?

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sty

foreignexchange Thank you! I too expect some oil strength in the first week of the year. It may definitely lend some support to the Aussie, but won't matter for this forecast though. :)

lubZostaw komentarz
Avatar

AUD/USD consolidating, but higher lows noted

al_dcdemo Przesłano 31 Paź jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7275, Data: 1 z Grudzień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 lev…
Czytaj więcej
Przetłumacz na Angielski Pokaż oryginał

Gdy nie jesteś zalogowany, nie wiemy jakim językiem się posługujesz, lecz przypuszczamy iż jest to Angielski
Zarejestruj się lub wybierz inny język do tłumaczenia z listy.

– lub –

10 Komentarze
Pokaż 5 więcej komentarzy
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Lis

UPDATE 6: Aussie fell less than 50 pips immediately after much weaker than expected capex report, which was published yesterday. The pair didn't follow through lower but instead went sideways. That may be a sign of strength but it may also be due to thin holiday trading. We'll find out soon enough, when liquidity returns. 0.72 (100 DMA) should hold if the uptrend is to continue smoothly. 0.7150 (50 DMA, Broken Weekly Trendline) may prove to be a decent support in the event of a deeper pullback. 0.73 (Weekly Resistance 1) is the first resistance ahead of 0.7350 (Monthly Resistance 1).

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Lis

UPDATE 7: After two weeks of gains, Australian dollar lost some 40 pips against the U.S. dollar with the weekly range of 120 pips. The pair started the week with a pullback and then rallied to new highs for the month. It was in the middle of another technical pullback when much weaker than expected capex report hit the wires. Although the impact was not so great at the time, the selling continued until the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Lis

UPDATE 8: There will be plethora of Australian data releases in the next week, including GDP and Trade Balance, along with the RBA meeting. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead features: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Depending on the outcome of aforementioned fundamental events, there is scope for the pair to retest the broken weekly trendline in the days ahead.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Lis

UPDATE 9: Aussie started the week with a 20 pip drop but it recovered to be around opening levels as I type. Commodities (particularly metals) are down, Chinese stocks too, but there was some encouraging data (MI Inflation Gauge, Company Operating Profits, Private Sector Credit) from Australia overnight. 0.7125 - 0.7150 support zone, that includes Previous Week Low, 50 DMA and broken Weekly Trendline (drawn off of September 2014, May 2015 and October 2015 highs), is crucial. 0.7200 - 0.7225, which hosts 100 DMA, is the immediate resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Gru

UPDATE 10: RBA held rates plus there was some positive data from Australia and China overnight. The pair broke above last week's high in Asian session. 0.73 capped a second wave in early Europe and the pair is currently pausing below the big figure. The pair remained in a broad consolidation during the month of November, finishing just above its mid point, which is consistent with my forecast.

lubZostaw komentarz
Avatar

Choppy ranging continues

al_dcdemo Uaktualniono 26 Cze  w #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Uncertainty #H1 Chart #Thin Trading #Summer Doldrums #Greek Saga #Gap Open
Despite the fact that many traders are standing aside in these tough markets mostly due to heightened uncertainty and never knowing where and when the next headline will send the price, yesterday's trade reminded of thin summer trading conditions. With July knocking on the door, "summer doldrums" factor might definitely be a part of it.
Greek saga continues on Saturday and if we'll get any deal on the weekend (unlikely), there could be a huge gap open on Monday. But most likely we will have to w…
Czytaj więcej
Przetłumacz na Angielski Pokaż oryginał

Gdy nie jesteś zalogowany, nie wiemy jakim językiem się posługujesz, lecz przypuszczamy iż jest to Angielski
Zarejestruj się lub wybierz inny język do tłumaczenia z listy.

– lub –

Zostaw komentarz
lubZostaw komentarz
Avatar

GBP/USD to remain in recent range

al_dcdemo Przesłano 31 Mar jako Analiza GBP/USD, Cel: 1.4964, Data: 1 z Maj, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Cable #Fed #Election #Fake Breakout #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Uncertainty
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but the breakout proved to be fake as the pair fell all the way to 1.4635, breaking 2013 low in the process. Next stronger support now comes near May 2…
Czytaj więcej
Przetłumacz na Angielski Pokaż oryginał

Gdy nie jesteś zalogowany, nie wiemy jakim językiem się posługujesz, lecz przypuszczamy iż jest to Angielski
Zarejestruj się lub wybierz inny język do tłumaczenia z listy.

– lub –

8 Komentarze
Pokaż 3 więcej komentarzy
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 Kwi

UPDATE 4: There are two main risk events in the week ahead: inflation report on Tuesday and labour market report on Friday. While the pair may continue to sell off on weaker data, upticks on stronger data may be short-lived as election worries prevail. There's not much support until 1.45 level and 76.4% retracement of the 2009 to 2014 uptrend near 1.4375. Initial resistance should come in near 1.4670 - 1.4700 and then stronger around 1.4750.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Kwi

UPDATE 5: Pip-wise, the pair was the second best performer on the week, after Loonie. Weak break of last Friday's low on Monday and subsequent rejection was followed by almost 200 pip rally from the lows on Tuesday (bleak US Retail Sales report) and continued in trending fashion until Friday, when pop above 1.50 on solid UK jobs report was countered by strong selling. It still managed to close near recent range top and above previous week's open.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Kwi

UPDATE 6: MPC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday are not expected to offer anything new, while Retail Sales report on Thursday may provide some volatility. Technically, the pair appears poised to break top of the recent range near 1.50 level and 50 DMA. If that happens, 100 DMA is the next level to watch. However, due to UK elections and associated worries, further ranging action in the pair is just as likely.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 Kwi

UPDATE 7:The pair was the best performer among majors this week, in both pip and percentage categories. It brushed aside election worries, jumped after the hawkish BOE minutes and shrugged off weak Retail Sales report. It added more than two cents, while the weekly range was worth more than three cents. It broke and closed above 50 and 100 DMA and trendline drawn off July 2014 and February 2015 highs, closing the week at the top.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 Kwi

UPDATE 8: Prelim GDP q/q on Tuesday and FOMC meeting on Wednesday are the main risk events for the pair in the week ahead, but with UK elections closing in and also a holiday extended weekend, there's scope for some near-term consolidation or correction. 1.50 level should now act as a strong support and 50 DMA just below that can be viewed as an additional safety net.

lubZostaw komentarz

Top bloggers

Blogger Posts / Polubienia

Top rated posts