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USDCHF Bouncing off Key Channel

Jignesh Posted 30 Giu as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9720, Date: 3 di Agosto, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Usdchf #Channel #Fibonacci Level
Overview
USDCHF has been in contained within two channels, but in the past few weeks we have seen it make a bullish break.
Even on a pullback the pair has managed to stay supported from the previous level, given the outlook of a bullish nature
Levels
0.9335 - April Close
0.9480 - 38.2 Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
0.9720 - March Close
0.9227 - 61.8% Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
Figure 1 - Daily USDCHF - two potential channels, price bouncing between both
Figure 2 - Price respecting channels, until recent bull…
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Jignesh 28 Lug

The pair has completed an ABC structure to support at 9538.  so far it has once again turned bullish up towards the daily 4h channel pointed out.  Expecting a pull back here, before once again turning bullish.

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Jignesh 30 Lug

The channel posted in the above comments broke this week, and that was followed by a strong push higher from a hawkish FOMC statement yesterday.  Today we've seen the pair touch the target level of 9720, and that level has acted as resistance for the pair.  Anticipating that this level holds tomorrow and offers a bit of a pull back as the US Dollar index has reached some key resistance.

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Jignesh 2 Ago

The week has opened with very little movement in the USD pairs.  Some clues can be found from the metals which have been selling off since the open.  Anticipating the majors to see some USD strength going into the London open at the very least, and possibly the New York Open.  However not anticipating any recent highs/lows to be broken, and with the pair marking an absolute high of 0.9718, it is not likely it will hit targets, however there is a strong possibility of it coming within 25 pips or so lower than the target.

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Jignesh 3 Ago

With just 3 hour left to the target time, the pair is starting to make a bullish break out of it's 15m bollinger bands.  The average ATR for the pair is about 18.5 pips per hour, so it is able to come very close to targets based on time and average price movements.  The overhead resistance and previous highs should cap the price as it starts heading into 0.9710-0.9720

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Jignesh 3 Ago

although the price was moving higher, lack of volatility prevented from exceeding 9683 at the time of close.  In hindsight, I could have put targets slightly lower as chances of it closing right at resistance are not always likely.  Either way the targets came close the price and analysis did show the right path. 

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Swiss National Bank Introduces Negative Interest Rates!!!

Jignesh Posted 18 Dic  in #Usdchf #Snb
The SNB has just announced negative interest rate. With the FOMC Risk event yesterday this lining up for an extremely bullish USD/CHF.
Link below to the press release
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20141218/source/pre_20141218.en.pdf
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Divergence in EURUSD & USDCHF pointing to Gap Up for EURUSD

Jignesh Posted 29 Ago  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Usdchf
The EURUSD made a new low today on the back of remarks from Draghi once again switching his stance a bit on QE.
As you can see from the charts below, the USDCHF, which is a highly correlated pair, failed to make a new high on the same move.
EURUSD - 1H

USDCHF - 1H

As per the blue circle in the EURUSD chart, you can see the new low made, while USDCHF maintained below resistance.
This leads to me to believe that both pairs may be doing a flat structure in elliott wave terms. The USDCHF most lik…
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Trade Summary for the week

Jignesh Posted 15 Ago  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Usdcad #Usdchf #Eursek
If you've been reading my blog, you'll know that I've been bullish EUR.
It seems that EURUSD is in some kind of a triangle, and although I expected the move up today, and am expecting it to break out of the triangle, I've once again had to close my positions to avoid the weekend cut off.
The thing about triangles I have found, is that they can be extremely frustrating to trade, unless you can get ahead of them. On my real account, I got some excellent entries and essentially was holding 3 positi…
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Bimlesh avatar
Bimlesh 15 Ago

lots to learn from you :)

peachynicnic avatar
peachynicnic 15 Ago

well done :)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 15 Ago

yes, Bimlesh))

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 15 Ago

Might be too soon to say that, I was calling for a move to around 1.3515

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VikaChechenkova 15 Ago

I agree with you)

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The case for a bullish EURO

Jignesh Posted 14 Ago  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Euraud #Usdchf #Eurnzd #Eursek
After the big drop in GBP today, I had to re evaluate my long in EURUSD. But after looking at some of the cross rates my conviction remains bullish on the EUR.
There is no doubt that the momentum remains to the downside. And of course the better trade is shorting from higher levels. But here are the reasons I remain on the long side
  • EURAUD - has completed the Head and Shoulder's pattern on the daily chart
…
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Daytrader21 14 Ago

You just gave me an idea and i'm going to overview the US Dollar index and see where we stand and the influence on EUR/USD:)

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Jignesh 15 Ago

Good to hear, hope you got a good trade out of it.

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US Dollar makes a crucial move to end the week

Jignesh Posted 8 Ago  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Nzdusd #Usdchf
The US Dollar has had some gains over the last session. In the early New York session we saw some very important moves in pairs like NZDUSD, EURUSD and some others.
The Kiwi and Euro were both dancing around some important moving averages. For the Kiwi it was the ever respected daily 200 period moving average, for the Euro, it was the weekly. After a dip below, they have both managed to spike above.
Although this certainly has bullish implications for the pairs, I'm looking to reduce my US Dolla…
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Bimlesh 8 Ago

You were right.. you exited to early...would have been a wonderful trade... :)

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Looking to USDCHF for clues to EURUSD

Jignesh Posted 22 Lug  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Usdchf
EURUSD has broken to new lows. In my webinar yesterday, I pointed out that this could happen and expecting some USD strength based on USDJPY and USDNOK.
I've blogged quite a bit about the upside on EURUSD and written an article on it. The view is bullish until we get a close below 3500.
A good indicator is the USDCHF. The two are heavily correlated, as the EUR is essentially pegged to the CHF. However we can clearly see that while the EURUSD has broken to new lows, USDCHF is still trading below …
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Contest Update

Jignesh Posted 21 Lug  in #Trader's blog #Gbpaud #Usdchf #Gbpcad
I've added a GBPAUD long to my contest account. Watching the open this week, I've noticed the AUD selling off against many of it's counter parts.
RBA Gov Stevens is due to speak mid way through the Asian session. In the past, he has on several occasions attempted verbal intervention in trying to bring down the exchange rate.
In the past, the RBA has been very vocal about a high exchange rate at current levels, this time around, I believe fundamentals do not support a rate cut and thus they are n…
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So many setups

Jignesh Posted 17 Lug  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Eurgbp #Gbpjpy #Usdcad #Usdchf #Gbpcad #Cadjpy
I've spent the last few weeks very inactive. I've taken maybe 2-3 trades, and that in the EURUSD only.
Over the last 24 hours, I've been seeing many of the pairs at inflection points, and have taken several trades. Here is a brief summary
GBPCAD - short
USDCAD - short
CADJPY - long
EURUSD - long
USDCHF - short
EURGBP - long
USDNOK - short
USDSEK - short
GBPJPY - short
Needles to say, I'm a bit overexposed. I'm still seeing even more setups in EURNZD, NZDUSD , Gold, at this point I'm going to hav…
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