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The Big Surprising move from JPY - Or was it?

Jignesh Publier 9 avr  dans #Trader's blog #JPY #Usdjpy #Boj #Bearish Trend #Bearish Technicals
This past week, the JPY took several traders by surprise. The larger expectation for the JPY remains that the currency should essentially be weak, after all that is the position of the central bank, and as traders we try not to fight Central Banks.
Several of the big banks have been issuing long trade setups, while only a few have caught the downside.
But was this justified at all? Here are some reasons why it made sense to be focusing on short XXX/JPY, and the move was not much of a surprise af…
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No Stopping the Yen Pairs

Jignesh Publier 16 nov  dans #Trader's blog #Usdjpy #Eurjpy #Nzdjpy
The Japanese Yen strengthen at the start of the week as it took it's well known form as a safe haven. Gold as well caught a strong bid, but it appears the momentum was short lived. The majority of the Yen pairs have already reversed it's trends.
A possible reason for it could be the expectation for an announcement of further stimilus from the BOJ this week.
On Wednesday and Thursday we are set to hear from the BOJ. They are expected to release their monetary policy statement, as well as a press …
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USDJPY Building up Stop Losses below 118.85

Jignesh Publier 15 mai  dans #Dukat blog #Usdjpy #Support #Trendline #Fibonacci Levels #Candlesticks #Dukat Contest #Targets
The USDJPY appears to be trading sideways for most of the year. The daily chart below, shows that 118.85 has become significant support as price has bounced from that level several times
Often in a range type environment, we can measure an equal distance from the high of the range to the low, to determine a possible target. The above chart has done exactly that to determine an approxiamete target in the case of a bearish break to be at 116.16.
The chart also shows a downward trendline in play as…
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JPY In The Week Ahead

Jignesh Publier 14 fév  dans #Trader's blog #JPY #Usdjpy #Yen
This week we will hear once again from the BOJ as their press conference will be released this Wednesday.
We have already heard from several of the central banks and the trend has been some adjustments to their monetary policy due to lower oil prices. The BOJ is in a different position, however the press conference has potential to cause some volatility if there are any changes to the monetary policy.
Some of the Yen pairs like USDJPY and EURJPY already show a possible completed Wave cycle to th…
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USDJPY Too far too fast

Jignesh Publier 9 nov  dans #Trader's blog #Usdjpy
Sentiment seems to be focused on the Yen pairs this week and the USD as well.
Generally the consensus I have gathered is that several market participants remain bearish the Yen in the long term, however, are expecting a significant correction this week.
I'll be watching the market carefully for counter trend trades, although I'm not entirely convinced of a major pull back in USDJPY to the 110 area as some have been stating.
The fundamental view on the Yen would not support such a move. Keeping i…
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MobNaga 16 nov

USDJPY is always too one-side too fast

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Redeemed in the October Contest

Jignesh Publier 1 nov  dans #Trader's blog #Usdjpy #Gbpjpy
This past contest was a repeat of history for me. In the top 10 first week, only to drop to below 100K in week 2.
I had pretty much given up on the contest last week, with a mere balance of $44K and the fierce competitors bringing in gains in the half million mark these days.
However, yesterday when the news came out from BOJ, as I was trading my personal account, I decided to go back to the contest. knowing I had little chance of placing, but more for redemption in closing in the green!
I took …
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alifari avatar
alifari 3 nov

So the point I am trying to make here is try to play according to your strengths and what best suits you and let the results speak for itself. My target for this month is Top 3, let's see how close I can get this month.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 3 nov

That some good advice.  I think we may have a different perspective of long term though.  Most of the trades I took in Nov I held for 2 weeks.  The short EURAUD trade I took mid Oct I plan to hold for another 6 months.  I look for 1:10 R;R or higher and if I'm profitable even 20% of them time I make money.   

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 3 nov

sorry i meant trades i took in Oct held for 2 weeks.  Similar trade idea now, I'm long USDJPY, I plan to hold until 115.  If it dips, I'll add to my position.  Not the type of strategy that can be used in the contest, as the pair may not hit that level until the following month.

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Jignesh 3 nov

I find if i start trading shorter cycles, I end up shorting the currencies I'm most bullish on and going long the weak currencies..  And often I find that if I take a trade on the contest I take it on the real account as well. .. not a good thing.

alifari avatar
alifari 3 nov

Okay, I understood your trading style now. All the best for November.

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USDJPY gains on the back of further easing from BOJ

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 115.0000, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Usdjpy #Yen #USD/JPY #Boj #Qe #Easing #Set And Forget
The pair has seen a significant jump to close out the month as the BOJ have announced further measures in easing.
Although the pair is quite overbought as the annoucement came as a surprise (expectation was for the annoucement to come in Dec). Any form of dips will be bought on the pair.
Levels
109.87 - Previous High
113.95 - Weekly Support / Resistance
115.00 - Major Psychological level
115.93 - Fib expansion / Resistance
First chart simply shows a bollinger band breakout with a clear contracti…
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 5 nov

After gapping higher to start the week, the USDJPY has continued full speed ahead with it's bullish momentum.  In fact, we are hovering around the monthly targets only a few days into the month.  Some of the other Yen Pairs are signalling a possible pull back.  For now 115 should offer an area of profit taking, but the potential this month to take out the targets for higher is a viable option.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 10 nov

The pair made a high at 150.50 last week, which was not a level I was watching nor included in the analysis.  So far we've broken through the 1H trendline (from start of week).  Major resistance for the pair this week will be the 115 target price.  With some signals of USD weakness to end the past week we may see the pair pulling back towards 114 - 114.2

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

CORRECTION: the previous comment was meant to read a high of 115.50 not 150.50

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

After touching highs at 117.05 last week, the pair has started on a bearish tone on the back of a JPY risk event to start the week.  Currently the previous high area, and 50% of the last leg up confluences at 115.46-115.50.  This area can offer some intern support.  A break of this level will expose the monthly target level 115 which will also be support.  The USD is largely looking like it has been an intern top and targets are looking very likely for this pair.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 25 nov

The pair is in a strong breakout and continues to post highs week after week.  The next main level of reistance will come at 120

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USDJPY Riding the channel to Resistance

Jignesh Publier 31 oct  dans #Usdjpy
USDJPY has been bullish after touching the 105.36 figure in the middle of the month. The chart below shows the pair once again touching the top of the channel ahead of the next BOJ risk event.
The general expectation is not to hear about more easing at the meeting, instead look to Dec for further guidance.
The USD has also slowed in momentum across the board, and we may see a bit of a pullback close to highs 109.55-109.90
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JvdS87908 31 oct

nicely put it ..........

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USDJPY Looking to take out key support at 107.35

Jignesh Publier 13 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Usdjpy #Diverging Monetary Policy
The USDJPY has been extremely bullish after breaking out of a daily wedge formation.
The breakout was on the back of the fundamentals of diverging monetary policy from the FED and BOJ. The Fed of course looking to raise rates and the BOJ looking to adjust inflation via easing.
In recent news events, the market has gotten the impression that both central banks are changing their stance a bit within one week. Where the monetary policy are still diverging, they are now looking to move the opposite …
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Given back all my gains on Friday

Jignesh Publier 26 juillet  dans #Trader's blog #Usdjpy #Usdcad #Gbpcad
I took a relatively big hit on Friday. My contest account was around the $150K mark, and I'm currently all the way down to $97K.
The big hit I took came from CAD. I had taken another position by shorting USDCAD. In my previous post I talk about a possible 5 wave sequence calling for one more leg of weakness. As I was watching the price action however, it was clear the move in the last few days was not impulsive and I really should have cut that position at a smaller loss.
I knew going into the w…
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VikaChechenkova 30 juillet

wow))

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