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When it comes to monetary policy among developed economies, FED is the most hawkish central bank and today's FOMC meeting will reinforce that stance. However this hawkishness is already price in and the market is already expecting a rate hike but the timing of the rate hike is what the market focus is right now. A rate hike today is out of cards as the market probability for a NO rate hike is 98%. Even though few months back my assessment was for Jun rate hike following the 2004 template, many t…
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Be "Patience" over the FOMC
The top piece of event risk this week is right ahead of us, and that is FOMC rate decision and the post-announcement press conference from Fed chair Yellen.
Today's FOMC decision it will have
broad implication on different assets classes. It's quite important to remember ourselves that this is not just about the rate decision but there are also other elements attached to this which is the
updated forecasts for growth, inflation, employment.
It's quite weird that the FOMC announcement has come d…
Today's FOMC decision it will have
broad implication on different assets classes. It's quite important to remember ourselves that this is not just about the rate decision but there are also other elements attached to this which is the
updated forecasts for growth, inflation, employment.
It's quite weird that the FOMC announcement has come d…
Preview: FOMC Minutes
Today the big risk event we faced is the release of FOMC Minutes from Dec 16 and 17 meeting when we could find more details on FED's interest rates timing and FED's view on the policy tightening. Don't expect much more from what we already know:
- FED has replaced the "considerable time" stance with "patience" when referring to the timing of the first interest-rate increase.
Jackson Hole Symposium. Why it Matter?
Jakson Hole is an economic symposium conference that has been hold each year since 1978 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. For more than three decades this economic symposium has been gathering together Finance ministers, central bank presidents and academics from around the world. Jackson Hole theme for Aug. 21-23 2014 will be "Re-Evaluating Labor Dynamics".
Unfortunately many Wall Streeters and other private-sector economists have not been invited anymore signaling a shift from prev…
Unfortunately many Wall Streeters and other private-sector economists have not been invited anymore signaling a shift from prev…
FOMC Minutes- Main Risk Event Of The Day
Beside BOE minutes and interest rates decision there is nothing else on the news wire that can be a market mover except the FOMC minutes. The only thing that matters for investors is to look for more clues as to when the FED will start hiking interest rates.
When it comes to the bond-buying program Fed Chair Yellen has been very clear that the purchases will end in October so traders will look to this FOMC minutes to provide clues for rate rise timing. When it comes to timing next hike in rates …
When it comes to the bond-buying program Fed Chair Yellen has been very clear that the purchases will end in October so traders will look to this FOMC minutes to provide clues for rate rise timing. When it comes to timing next hike in rates …
EUR/USD FED Tapering Effect (part 2)
It's that time again when all eyes will be on FED and US economic data as today we have two important figures scheduled to be release. Not only that we have the FOMC decision as main risk event on top of that we also have the US GDP figures and US employment figures.
Market expectation for this week's FOMC meeting has not changed as QE tapering is on an autopilot and we should expect another $10B taper. The focus will be more on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which will g…
Market expectation for this week's FOMC meeting has not changed as QE tapering is on an autopilot and we should expect another $10B taper. The focus will be more on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which will g…
What To Expect For FOMC Minutes
Beside the fact that the main risk event for today is definitely the FOMC minutes we also have Mario Draghi speaking lately today. When it comes to the ECB there are different opinions in regards with what will trigger ECB QE. Some members see QE only in an "emergency situation" and others say "ready to take any actions that may prove necessary should downside risks further materialise" like Noyer.
When it comes to FOMC minutes I'm not expecting any market-moving comments coming from Yellen's sp…
When it comes to FOMC minutes I'm not expecting any market-moving comments coming from Yellen's sp…
Prepering the Week Ahead
The main risk event of the week ahead will be definitely the FOMC minutes. Previous meeting came out pretty much in line with market expectation with Yellen making the case that rates are going to stay low for a considerable time after QE ends in Q4. But lets not forget her comments from few months ago where she explicitly said that rates are going to go higher "6 months after QE ends" but this is just a standard talking from CB, this double talking makes the market not be skewed in just one si…
NFP, Jobs Report
Today is a big day in term of risk events as we have the job report. The labor market seems to be picking up as the recent bad weather effect on the market is fading away and the job market has start picking up.
Market participants will pay close attention to this figures especially after Yellen has introduced the new qualitative forward guidance and employment data has become an indicator of economic growth.
This NFP report has a great potential of being a big market moving after later this wee…
Market participants will pay close attention to this figures especially after Yellen has introduced the new qualitative forward guidance and employment data has become an indicator of economic growth.
This NFP report has a great potential of being a big market moving after later this wee…
RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
I know is kind of long time since my last blog post, but the only reason why I've stop blogging was mainly because I was busy and secondly because I don't have any chance to come back in top 10. In today blog post I want to take the time and have a look into recent NZ dollar price movement.
When it comes to the monetary policy RBNZ is the most hawkish Central Bank among developed economies(see Figure 1) and this is certainly reflected in recent price movement after 2 consecutive raise in in…