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NZDCAD

AdrianWS Posted 15 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.8400, Date: 2nd of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/CAD
NZDCAD has had a very good run of late but is running into 15 year resistance and with very few non-USD catalysts it seems to have no reason to break on higher and thus the path of least resistance is very much to the downside.
We can see the triangle that is appearing here and as such I expect it to be capped and floored for the meantime at these levels.
A closer look shows how the market is seemingly overrun to the upside and due a correction.
The move has pushed us into a resistance zone, and…
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AdrianWS 30 Nov.

I hasn't dropped as much as I'd hoped and has merely consolidated at the higher end, still looks good, but a longer duration needs to be considered.

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VictoriaVika 20 July

Good work

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EURUSD topping formation

AdrianWS Posted 15 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.3300, Date: 2nd of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
The EURUSD has rallied significantly and has recently threatened the 1.3711 high. The pair found heavy selling up towards 1.3610 and a breach of 1.3646 would result in a move towards 1.3711. But currently we appear to be setting for a bearish H&S signalling that a top may be in soon.
As we can see here I shorted the pair up at 1.3580 and am looking for a move down to the previous major swing high at 1.3410.
A longer term daily chart would suggest that we've broken higher, but I somewhat disagree…
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AdrianWS 30 Nov.

it has dropped after setting a high in the 1.38's, but overall being long USD is still a good play.

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USDJPY

AdrianWS Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 101.0000, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY
The JPY has been at the mercy of the US yields for the past few sessions, and this isn't going to change. The 10's and the USDJPY have been trading tick for tick and with the likely taper soon upon us the UST 10's are likely heading to 3%, this means the USDJPY will almost certainly be back above 100, and approaching previous highs.In the short term, and for the rest of August, $JPY should be well defined in a trading range under 100 as US yields struggle to break much higher.The daily chart is …
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5 Comments
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AdrianWS 14 Sep.

So, we did break out of the triangle, but... we quickly ran out of momentum and heading back lower into the mid 99's. However I still see us closing in and around the 101 area by month end assuming a base-line of $15bn taper

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AdrianWS 21 Sep.

Well we didn't see tapering, but the USDJPY recovered remarkably well and looks like it wants higher going into month end

VTTG avatar
VTTG 26 Sep.

Best wishes for you!

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 20 July

Great

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 18 Aug.

good!

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EURGBP

AdrianWS Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8400, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/GBP
I could talk about how IRS see EURGBP at 0.77, or Forwards see 0.88, but I'll stick to the chart technicals and it seems rather bearish to flat at this point.We can see here the reaction since Carney has had his first press conference and the reaction has been impressive from the GBP, even if Carney wanted the exact opposite to occur. STIR futures now see a potential rate hike in 2015 Q1 and this is a vast shift from Q3 2016 that was previous. Becuase of this the GP has been in demand as gilt yi…
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AdrianWS 14 Sep.

Going into Friday, we actually broke lower through .84 - So we've clearly weakened towards my target and are now oversold, It seems we could see a bounce but a weekly close under .84 is big.

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AdrianWS 21 Sep.

EURGBP recovered back above 0.84 but still looks vulnerable considering the UK macro strength

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AUDUSD

AdrianWS Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.9320, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD
The Aussie has been the worst performer of 2013 as I write and really is due a move higher - Down over 11.8% YTD it is really oversold, It seems for now that we could see an Inverse H&S formation, but it may be to soon to call it. Like all FX pairs - a lot depends on the Taper decision as this will directly hit EM markets and the AUD will be hit as a proxy hedge to further declines in EM markets. This combined with the Quant view that the interest rate differential is playing a major part in the…
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AdrianWS 14 Sep.

This has gone very well in terms of a trade - we have reached 0.932 and some, but we've calmed down a tad and eased off. However there are a lot of short term fundamentals from China which are short term positive

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AdrianWS 21 Sep.

Currently sat about 70 pips above my target, this pair had broken higher but found resistance at the 38% resistance level just above 0.95 and so could drop further/consolidate as the calendar is pretty light until next month

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USDCHF

AdrianWS Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9225, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF
The Swissy has been an interesting pair of late, taking a nice reaction of a long term trendline, however the CHF is undervalued - while it will be a strong candidate to short with Europe improving, I see the opposite occurring.There is a lot of resistance, and while we may see a move to 0.9425 (50% fib) it will likely be sold as investors fear growing volatility over the September period.Furthermore, if the Taper is put off until December the USD will get hit hard and head much, much lower with…
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AdrianWS 21 Sep.

USDCHF currently trades at 0.91 flat, far below my price target of 0.9225 and has been the victim of huge USD selling on the back of the Fed recent decision. However it is very oversold and due a bounce

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EURUSD

AdrianWS Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.3000, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
The EUR has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of a weak dollar over the past few weeks, but it seems, as we run up toward the September Taper decision. Starting off by looking at a 1 hour chart we can see that the recent move to 1.34 acts as a great candidate for a swing top, we can see a strong supply zone ahead of 1.3418 (previous high) and the rising wedge upper trendline. Furthermore we can see that the EUR has come off quite substantially and is ultimately at quite an important level a…
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4 Comments
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AdrianWS 15 Aug.

wow the formatting on this has really messed up :/ Oh well the words are all there :)

jetaro avatar
jetaro 15 Aug.

you said it right adrian :) anyway congrats on winnig last month article contest.:)

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AdrianWS 21 Sep.

After tapering there is next to 0% chance of this occuring

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fdsaRUS 9 Oct.

относительно евро/доллар - еще можно посмотреть спред доходности между 2-летками Германии и США и 2-летние свопы по ставкам (тоже спред с евро/долларом) - финансовые потоки должны развернуться в сторону доллара, цели по главной пока около 1,315

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AUDUSD long

AdrianWS Posted 15 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.9350, Date: 2nd of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD
As we stand now weekly stochastics signal the most oversold AUDUSD since 2004, well below the levels seen in 2008, RSI is at similar levels and recent CoT data has shown us that there are record shorts in the AUDUSD. For this reason getting long on a contrary play is my main trade for the summer months (and for the next two weeks while I'm on holiday).Here shows the weekly chart with very support candles and with Stochastics very smoothly signalling a move higher. Both previous oversold stochast…
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AdrianWS 24 Aug.

As we are getting close to the end of the month - the AUD has struggled to gain momentum, broadly speaking as the EM world has really struggled. While I still expect us to trade up to 0.9350, it may take a while

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AdrianWS 30 Aug.

closing the week at 0.89 is tough for bulls but there is strong support down here, nevertheless, far from my prediction - however my others were very good.

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USDDKK

AdrianWS Posted 13 July as Analysis on USD/DKK, Target: 5.8000, Date: 2nd of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/DKK
This pair shows a lot of potential for a move higher and has been in an up trend for a while, we could likely see a move to test resistance over the summer through weakening Scandinavian fundamentals.For a closer look we can see that the Stochastics support a low volatility summer and so we can expect that any move will have a slight upward bias over this time. For these reasons we can see that a move to 5.8 is entirely likely as we see what looks to be a boring summer of trading.
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AdrianWS 24 Aug.

the "septaper" story has really hurt the USD, and this can be shown through the constant hammering of the USD

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EURUSD

AdrianWS Posted 13 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.3200, Date: 2nd of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
We've seen a failed attempt to break a huge H&S attempt I expect now that the USD will weaken slightly and we will see the potential for a move to 1.32 by the end of the SummerAs we can see, we should stay within these two trend lines for the foreseeable future and with a light upward bias 1.32 is likely.A longer outlook appears to support this view for a move marginally higher as shown here.For these reasons I can expect the EURUSD to have a quiet summer but edge up slightly over the 6 weeks to…
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AdrianWS 24 Aug.

The EURUSD is sat merely a % over the target here, and looks heavy. 1.3285 is a strong level likely to be tested this week and will be pivotal. Momentum is slowing but there is still a risk that we head higher through 1.3450 and this could mean 1.37 before too long.

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AdrianWS 30 Aug.

Closed the week at 1.3215, a mere 15 pips from my target level, Ok we need to see this weekend play out, but either way Gotta be happy with that...

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