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engabood has taken 4th place in Fundamental analysis Contest Sep 2019, week 2

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engabood predicted bullish impact of IFO - Business Climate in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The Germany Ifo business climate index increased to 96.3 last month. Despite of expectation about a decrease might be recorded to 95.6, the Germany business expectations for the next 6 months improved as the recent result was the highest in five months.
In addition, the Germany ifo Business Expectations indicator increased to 93.8 from 92.1, and the Germany ifo current assessment indicator increased to 98.8 from 79.9.
Bullish for EUR/USD.

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engabood predicted bullish impact of BBA Mortgage Approvals in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The U.K. gross mortgage approvals increased to 43.7 thousand mortgages for new house purchase last month. The mortgage housing market is growing as seen in the last strong increase reached the highest since February 2017.
Bullish for GBP/USD.

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engabood predicted bearish impact of New Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

In the US, the new home sales decreased to 719 thousand last month. Despite of expectations about an increase might be recorded to 725 thousand, the correction down might be recorded this month as it still near the highest level since years. In addition, the change is expected to decrease 0.8% from 1.3%.
Bearish for USD/JPY.

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engabood predicted bearish impact of Unemployment Rate in the Fundamental analysis Contest

In Russia, the unemployment rate stood at 4.6% last month. It's expected to unchanged this month by record the same result as the recent 4.6%.
Considering the other important indicators release at the same time, the retail sales which increased to 2.3% YoY from 1.6% and expected to increase more to 2.7%, the real wage growth which increased to 3.8% YoY from 3.1%, and expected to increase more to 4%.
Bearish for USD/RUB.

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engabood predicted bullish impact of Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The US nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft decreased to 0.1% last month from 1.2%. It's expected to increase this month to 0.2%.
Other related indicators are expected to increase, the durable goods orders excluding transportation (to 0.1% from 0%), the the durable goods orders including transportation (to 0.4% from -0.2%)
Bullish for USD/JPY.

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engabood predicted bullish impact of Consumer Confidence in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The level of consumer confidence in the US economic activity increased to 126.5 last month from 125.5. It's expected to increase this month.
Considering the important indicator that release at the same time, the Richmond fed manufacturing index which is expected to improve this month by increasing to 9 from -5.
Bullish for USD/JPY.

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engabood predicted bearish impact of Consumer Price Index in the Fundamental analysis Contest

In Australia, the inflation rate decreased to 0.5% last quarter from 0.6%. The indicator corrected down after reached the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2018 and I think it will resume correction more down this quarter or at least record the same result as the recent 0.5% as expected.
Bearish for AUD/USD.

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engabood predicted bearish impact of Goods Trade Balance in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The US goods trade balance increased to -63.19 billion USD last month from -66.53 billion USD. It's expected to decrease to -68.75 billion USD.
Considering the wholesale inventories which decreased to negative levels -0.1% from 0%.
Bearish for USD/JPY.

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engabood predicted bearish impact of Pending Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

In the US, the pending home sales increased MoM to 1.2% last month from -1.7%. It's expected to decrease this month to 0.4%.
On YoY: the indicator is expected to decrease after recorded the highest level since July 2015.
Bearish for USD/JPY.