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The silent or unknown secret of 90% active management profits

xetra777 Posted 9 Apr.
Sorry, I write so little and short, but I;m overwhelmed with never ending tasks, forgot all about self-marketing :-D So, the majority of profits comes from fat tails of distributions of returns. Miss best X months and you miss almost everything. Problem is they are generally unpredictable* and as a consequence this is probably the biggest drawback of active management, because you can easily catch those best X months by buying and holding.
* At least to my knowledge. You can probably aggregate a…
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Why prices move or 2 types of strategies

xetra777 Posted 28 Feb.
Prices go up because someone (a group of) agrees to pay higher price.. It is mechanisms behind so called momentum. When "crowds" gather together and want something (whatever reason), and if they believe they would benefit from it (greed component), prices tend to move for extended periods of time. And vice versa.
If you can determine when some particular group would sell or buy (e.g. have a some information - signal), you can benefit from this belief. markets usually have weak signals as they ha…
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4 types of traders (according to Micahel Harris)

xetra777 Posted 28 Feb.
From highest to lowest probability of failure.
1. TA beginners.
Use lots of TA indicators, don't really know what they mean and whether they generate some real signal over noise.
2. Advanced technical analysts.
Experience gave them knowledge on how to deal with discrepancies of technical analysis, they may use less of TA indicators or not use them at all, relying on support &resistance or something like that.
3. Quantitative beginners.
They realize technical analysis isn't correlated to how pric…
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