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You don't get to often to have the ECB monetary policy announcement and the NFP report scheduled on the same day, but due to the fact that Friday is 4th of July, thus a holiday, the NFP figures are going to be released today. Market expectation for both of this 2 risk events are very grounded as investors are not expecting for big surprises coming out today. Typically volatility drops off heading into 4th of July.
ECB has already announced in the previous meeting some monetary easing measures and in today's meeting they most likely will give further details on those measures. ECB is not going to take any action before they can see how inflation is behaving in coming months, if inflation doesn't start to pick up this will urge ECB to take sooner than later some kind of QE.
Market expectation for NFP figures is for another increase to 210K jobs created but after ADP came in better than expected at 281K we can see even better figures. In Figure 1 you can have a quick review on how the labor market is behaving.
Figure 1: US Employment Report
Don't forget that we're still during summer trading conditions where most likely any move outside the pair's ATR will be faded, do not expect any follow through, most likely we'll have a big whipsaw and the market will go for stops in both sides of the market. Don't forget that previous two ECB meetings has produced some big whipsaws .
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
