Open trading account 
Today the U.S. NFP data were somewhat of a little surpise concerning the moves which are not typical. I like to write something about how a trader should face this specific event if somebody of you like to trade it.
The average consensus of 240k was beaten by 252k for december. However there are some factors which may get one into a cold start of the new year:
Wages: Right with the job count values, one should note about wages. The average hourly earnings (YoY) went down by 0.4% to 1.7%. This values are more to consider if the spectacular move today needs an explanation. The market is not only looking for jobs. Who finds a job, need to pay his bills and consume right?
Bond market yields: The U.S. Bond market yields are slightly down. This affects the 2, 5, and 10 year yields. However the numbers are not too discouraging. But currently the bond market is watching closely the falling wages which leads to the next topic.
The FED: Chances for a rate hike are decreasing slightly (Analysts talk about a 52% chance in september) which simply is a matter of the feds job to look after sustainable growth in labour force, wages and CPI data. Also there are different voices inside the fed who more to the dovish side at the moment.
Put all this facts in the mix and you find out easily that such moves are not rare in the current time and state of the general EUR/USD outlook.
On a sidenote: CTFC reports EUR net shorts of 161k vs short 152k prior. These numbers are getting close to the extremest value of 179k in october 2014. So lets assume, if everybody is short, who will buy?
Hope this all does make sense. Be aware of a volatile period to come since we currently are not served the "QE dish" by the ECB yet. However, this market is still a dollar bullish market. How long corrections last or other concerns raise over the long lasting moves, its just a matter of time and economy data which should be watched closely.
I for myself avoid trading news at all costs. However i am sure there are traders out there, who have found a strategy to squeeze some pips out of it.
Take care.
AL
The average consensus of 240k was beaten by 252k for december. However there are some factors which may get one into a cold start of the new year:
Wages: Right with the job count values, one should note about wages. The average hourly earnings (YoY) went down by 0.4% to 1.7%. This values are more to consider if the spectacular move today needs an explanation. The market is not only looking for jobs. Who finds a job, need to pay his bills and consume right?
Bond market yields: The U.S. Bond market yields are slightly down. This affects the 2, 5, and 10 year yields. However the numbers are not too discouraging. But currently the bond market is watching closely the falling wages which leads to the next topic.
The FED: Chances for a rate hike are decreasing slightly (Analysts talk about a 52% chance in september) which simply is a matter of the feds job to look after sustainable growth in labour force, wages and CPI data. Also there are different voices inside the fed who more to the dovish side at the moment.
Put all this facts in the mix and you find out easily that such moves are not rare in the current time and state of the general EUR/USD outlook.
On a sidenote: CTFC reports EUR net shorts of 161k vs short 152k prior. These numbers are getting close to the extremest value of 179k in october 2014. So lets assume, if everybody is short, who will buy?
Hope this all does make sense. Be aware of a volatile period to come since we currently are not served the "QE dish" by the ECB yet. However, this market is still a dollar bullish market. How long corrections last or other concerns raise over the long lasting moves, its just a matter of time and economy data which should be watched closely.
I for myself avoid trading news at all costs. However i am sure there are traders out there, who have found a strategy to squeeze some pips out of it.
Take care.
AL
