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Last time I was speaking about Gold it was trading near an important inflection point, see more here: Gold Inflection Point
Even thought I was drawing the point that the probability suggest we should continue lower, I have also been advice if we broke the trend-line that connects the 2012 highs we should take the breakout with a long position. The initial breakout lack momentum but only after SNB decision to abandon the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor, Gold started to gain momentum.
Figure 1. Gold Weekly Chart
The seasonality pattern has played a strong role in this surge in Gold price as usually January has the tendency to be a strong positive net return for Gold. But also the current uncertainty in the market and risk off environment caused by SNB event has contributed to this gain in price as Gold is often perceived, not as much as a hedge against inflation, but more a hedge against governments.
But if we look on the bigger picture we can see that the deflationary trends around the world posses a strong threat to the Gold uptrend sustainability and with the broad based dollar strength across the board we could see Gold resuming it's downtrend. The technicals also points in the same direction as we're still trading inside a downward channel with current resistance zone at $1300-$1320.
There may be the case we're headed for another marginal high, in order to retest the channel upper border, but without breaking the $1320 level.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
