Today probably are the last important economic data for the year that are scheduled to be released during US session, as the next week the market enter in the holiday season and during this time of the year the major banks are closed during the Christmas days. Market expectation for today reading are very supportive for the US dollar as the GDP is expected to expend further in the Q3 of 2013, growing from 2.5% to a consensus of 3.6%. Last time we have seen such a high figure was in earlier 2012 (see Figure 1).


  • Figure 1. US GDP Growth rate.

After Fed decided to taper, the importance of any economic data coming out from US is very important as market participants will pay closer attention to any sign of improvements in the economy. Ben Bernanke has said during the press conference that any further cut in QE is data depending so any good news will shift the odds of further cut in the QE programme.

  • EUR/USD Trade Idea


  • Figure 2. EUR/USD 1h chart, Fed tapering decision.

The most important thing is how the market will react to this news and how you can profit from it. There are obvious reasons that the sentiment has shifted in EUR/USD after the Taper decision and now that Fed has decided to taper there are no reason for the US dollar not to go up, thus EUR/USD moving to the downside. Another reason to take in consideration is yesterday reaction to the US economic data, although the US Existing Home Sales and the Initial Jobless Claim came in worse than expected EUR/USD should have been moving to the upside but instead USD was actually stronger. This is a very powerful signal that EUR/USD bearish sentiment is very strong and my trade recommendation is to stay short EUR/USD.
Best regards,
Daytrader21.
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