After reading several hundred trading books I had come to simple 4-types framework what defines success. Here it is in short.

Negative alpha:
1. Bandit process = leverage * (times) no information advantage.
2. Idiot process = no leverage * no information edge.

Positive alpha:
3. Not successful = no leverage * information.
4. Successful = leverage * information.

Information advantage here can be anything that's most probably is real ("true"). Leverage here can also be anything that empowers usage of information.

For example, a lot of brokers that "teach" TA, which no longer works as reliable signal* since around Y2K, use bandit process to leverage their power to get the advantage from uninformed traders (idiot process).

* Meaning, traders are basically on noise, random, whenever you enter based on TA is same, no advantage over others in the zero sum games (like trading).

Best
Traduzir para Inglês Mostrar original