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After reading several hundred trading books I had come to simple 4-types framework what defines success. Here it is in short.
Negative alpha:
1. Bandit process = leverage * (times) no information advantage.
2. Idiot process = no leverage * no information edge.
Positive alpha:
3. Not successful = no leverage * information.
4. Successful = leverage * information.
Information advantage here can be anything that's most probably is real ("true"). Leverage here can also be anything that empowers usage of information.
For example, a lot of brokers that "teach" TA, which no longer works as reliable signal* since around Y2K, use bandit process to leverage their power to get the advantage from uninformed traders (idiot process).
* Meaning, traders are basically on noise, random, whenever you enter based on TA is same, no advantage over others in the zero sum games (like trading).
Best
Negative alpha:
1. Bandit process = leverage * (times) no information advantage.
2. Idiot process = no leverage * no information edge.
Positive alpha:
3. Not successful = no leverage * information.
4. Successful = leverage * information.
Information advantage here can be anything that's most probably is real ("true"). Leverage here can also be anything that empowers usage of information.
For example, a lot of brokers that "teach" TA, which no longer works as reliable signal* since around Y2K, use bandit process to leverage their power to get the advantage from uninformed traders (idiot process).
* Meaning, traders are basically on noise, random, whenever you enter based on TA is same, no advantage over others in the zero sum games (like trading).
Best