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USD/CAD to break below 200 week SMA

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2275, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #200 Week Sma #Net Short Positioning #Strong Downtrend #Hawkish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation. 1.28 - 1.30 has been centra…
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al_dcdemo 9 Sep.

UPDATE 5: Three major central banks met this week. On Tuesday, RBA kept interest rates unchanged but were upbeat on the economy. On Wednesday, BOC delivered second hawkish hike in the row. Markets expect one more hike from them this year. ECB stood pat on Thursday but they will likely announce further tapering of asset purchases in October. Next Thursday, SNB and BOE meet. No change is likely to be expected from SNB while the franc is trading below 1.20 against the euro. BOE will hike rates at some point in the future but that won't be this year.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 6: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was the pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely too.

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al_dcdemo 18 Sep.

UPDATE 7: USD/CAD appears to be in the process of making a (short-term) bottom above the 50.0% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. Volatility fell in recent days as the pair consolidates after selling off following the second consecutive rate hike by the BOC. Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected Fed last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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Anticipating Upside in Nikkei 225

VAIBS1991 Posted 14 Nov. as Analysis on JPN.IDX/JPY, Target: 18 550, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendlines #Jpn IDX/JPY #200 Dma #200 Week Sma
There was a remarkable rally in Japaneses Nikkei 225 Index from July 2012 to July 2015 which took it from the levels 8300 to all time highs of around 20900. The August 2015 crash in Chines equities and later on commodities driven crash in February 2016 brought it down to sub 15000 levels. It has been consolidating for past 10 months while fallowing the headwinds in broader global markets.
As we can see on weekly charts there seems a nice break out on the upside of downward sloping trend line. It…
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GBP/USD will remain strong

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5725, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Reversal #Rally #Lift Off #Medium Term Downtrend #Longer Term Uptrend #200 Week Sma #Summer Dolrums
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as a trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. It took off from there to then ran out of puff just below 1.60.
Weekly chart:
The…
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: There are few important data points coming out in the week ahead, particularly UK labour market report. US retail sales and PPI have potential to move the pair too, especially if they overshoot expectations in either direction. Support is seen in 1.5400 - 1.5425 band, before July 8th low near 1.5325. Initial resistance shall come at 1.55 and then between 1.5530 and 1.5550.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The pair reversed most of the last week's losses on Monday and then went pretty much sideways from there. However, higher highs and especially higher lows are noted as the pair edges towards the top of the five-week range. Despite the fact that it's still contained within the range, weekly candle body engulfs previous weekly candle body after price action sprang from the new range low last week. That looks bullish.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Inflation and retail sales reports will be the next pieces of the puzzle that the market and indeed the BOE will receive. The US will also release their latest inflation figures. Technically, the pair looks poised to break above the recent range top near 1.5680. Stoploss selling could propel the pair to at least 1.5750, if not 1.58. Support is seen at 50 DMA (~1.56).

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action in the pair was similar to that in the Euro, even though it started from a completely different (range-bound) context. After peaking above 1.58 on Monday, the pair turned lower and traded down to 1.5325, breaking all three (50, 100 and 200) SMA along the way. However, the latter was broken only briefly and then the pair pulled back above it. Despite that, weekly candle looks bearish.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: It's a bank holiday on Monday on the island, but the rest of the week promises to be lively as we will get the three major PMI reports from the UK and ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports from the US. 200 DMA has to hold if the pair is to stay in 1.53 - 1.59 range. Otherwise, retest of 1.50 in the days/weeks ahead may become quite likely.

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GBP/USD will hold onto its gains

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5725, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Recovery #Lift Off #Medium Term Downtrend #Longer Term Uptrend #Three Leg Correction #Bullish Market #200 Week Sma
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as a trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. It took off from there to then ran out of puff just below 1.60. It is poised to cl…
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WallStreet6 28 July

Another great analysis! Also included some macroeconomic situation! Great stuff and only a bit over 100 pips to go!

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

As the GDP came on target I think that the cable may continue it's run upwards this week.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Let's hope for an early Monday rally. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Among seven major currency pairs, Cable was the winner of the week. Solid preliminary GDP report was a big part in Sterling's gains, in line with the backdrop of hawkish BOE. Yet the Dollar was strong too and, thanks to the positive signal in the FOMC statement and solid Advance GDP report, the pair remained range-bound for the third consecutive week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Next week is the first one of the month and, as usual, it comes with plenty of economic data points. NFP will again be in the spotlight but for the British currency the first BOE meeting in the new format will be even more important. Range top is found near 1.5675. Initial support is seen near 1.5550 but the stronger one lays at the range bottom around 1.5475.

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