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USD/JPY keeps grinding up

After lively sessions yesterday, major currency pairs took a breather overnight. Except for, perhaps, USD/JPY which keeps grinding up, in tandem with U.S. treasuries (10's traded 3.13%). The pair is approaching a major resistance, the trendline drawn off of 2015, 2016 and 2017 highs. Broken 110 level and 200 DMA near 110.15 should now act as a firm support.
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USD/JPY making another shot at 110

USD/JPY was deflected by the strong resistance area 110 - 110.5 (February high, 200 DMA, 50 WMA) last week, after briefly trading above the big figure. There was enough demand in the 108.5 - 109 area (100 DMA) and with Iran risk out of the way, the pair can now make another shot at the resistance. U.S. PPI (today) and CPI (tomorrow) inflation reports could provide some fuel for the rally.
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NZD/USD likely to find some support into 0.70

New Zealand dollar has been one of the worst performing currencies in the past two weeks. From a high near 0.74 on Friday 13th it fell to as low as 0.7060 yesterday, that's 340 pips or 4.8%. 0.70 - 0.705 area will likely offer some support. In the event of a retracement, 0.71 - 0.715 is where I'd expect at least some resistance.
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GBP rallies on Brexit deal progress

Pound pairs rallied yesterday as E.U. and U.K. reached an important Brexit milestone. GBP/USD ran stops above 1.40 and is currently holding above the big figure. It's a big week for GBP data-wise, starting with inflation today, jobs tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday, along with BOE meeting and E.U. summit. 50 DMA has to hold if the momentum is to remain in place. In broader terms, 1.375 - 1.425 range still in play.
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Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

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Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Aussie breaks below 38.2% retracement

AUD/USD fell 50 pips overnight, after the release of weaker than expected Wage Price Index. 38.2% retracement of the 2016 - 2017 upswing now looks properly broken. 0.75 - 0.755 area is the next major support. It includes 2016 - 2017 trendline, the big figure, and is backed by 50.0% retracement.
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RBA complains about Australian dollar strength

In line with expectations, RBA once again held cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The statement from governor Lowe was longer than usual, though the message didn't differ much from the previous one. There was a whole new paragraph dedicated to Australian dollar and how its strength would not benefit the economy.
The pair dropped about 20 pips instantly and then squeezed higher but wasn't able to overcome overnight high. Sellers stepped back in and the pair is currently trading just below 0.80.…
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EURo breaks above 2015 - 2016 trendline

Euro just broke above the trendline, drawn off of 2015 and 2016 highs, helped by the continued drama in U.S. politics. The pair appears ready to attack the big figure at 1.15, that has been capping it since early 2015.
Last year's high (1.1615) is the next target ahead of the 2015 high (1.1715) which is backed by 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. Broken 1.1430 - 1.1450 area should now offer initial support.
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Cable knocking on 1.30

British pound was not in focus during the past several days but has been underpinned by GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF buying. It has taken advantage of the U.S. dollar weakness this morning. BOE QIR tomorrow is the main thing to prepare for.
GBP/USD is knocking on the big figure (1.30) again. A break above would likely trigger some buy stops. 23.6% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downtrend is the next target. Area around 1.29 is the initial support and then stronger one near 1.2830.
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